Some players may be in different situations, may be aging or even have issues behind the scenes that we are unaware of. For example, what in the world happened to Diontae Johnson last year? As a result, here are three players who should have seasons that are closer to their average in 2025.
Fantasy Football Regression Candidates: Bounce-Back Targets
Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL) & Travis Kelce (TE – KC)
These three players may have very different evaluations by the fantasy community; however, each is a regression candidate. Combining for 366 targets, these three had a total of five receiving touchdowns — three from Kelce, two from McBride and zero from Ferguson. We just discussed how Cook averaged a touchdown on 7.7% of his carries, McBride had a touchdown on 1.3% of his targets, Kelce was at 2.2% and Ferguson failed to score. In other words, all three of these players were allergic to scoring in 2024 and should be able to rebound in 2025.
McBride was probably the most shocking of these three players. That’s because he had the second-most targets at the position, and tied for the 15th-most targets at all positions. I believe the fact that McBride didn’t catch his first touchdown until Week 17 should go down as one of the (now) Nine Wonders of the World. Thankfully, once he saw his first one, he was able to follow it up the following week with another score.
Much like Jakobi Meyers‘ Patriots days, there is no statistical or offensive scheme reasoning behind the lack of touchdowns. As the iconic Halifax show Trailer Park Boys says: Sometimes she goes, sometimes she doesn’t, and that’s just the way of the road. The Cardinals are projected to be an above-average offense, and the team will rely heavily on McBride. If he can approach the league average in touchdowns, he has a clear path to become the overall fantasy TE1.
Kelce is one of the more confusing players to draft this year. Some believe last year’s down production was a clear indication of his age. There was some truth to that statement, as Kelce could not overcome defenses that schemed against him being the top target like he used to. Still, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic; there is meat left on the bone. As a result, he is being drafted outside of the top five at the position for what seems to be the first time in his career.
Statistically, there is a clear path for Kelce to rebound and be a value. Last year, he had 26 red-zone targets, which were five more red-zone targets than the next highest tight end. Those targets resulted in three touchdowns. This season could be the definition of positive regression, as Patrick Mahomes should also return to being a prolific touchdown passer. Even if Kelce has lost a step, he could easily have a season much like Jimmy Graham‘s end-of-career, easily catching double-digit touchdowns.
Shockingly, Ferguson might be the player who is most likely to regress positively. After joining the fantasy scene in 2023 as a top-10 tight end, many (including myself) believed 2024 was going to be another step forward. Instead, he came crashing back to Earth, missing three games and finishing as the fantasy TE25. Despite missing time, he was still 10th at the position in targets.
The issue was that Ferguson only had five red-zone targets and failed to catch a touchdown. Even his backup, Luke Schoonmaker, had a touchdown when filling in for Ferguson. This passing attack should collectively benefit from the addition of George Pickens, making Ferguson a solid volume play at the position with the potential to see an infinitely larger touchdown total from last year.
DJ Moore (WR – CHI)
This isn’t the first time this offseason I’ve brought up DJ Moore’s name, and it won’t be the last. With the entire Bears team in the offensive spotlight by adding head coach Ben Johnson, it’s surprising that Moore is being overlooked. He is by far the most experienced and talented receiver on this team (at this point). Both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III possess the ability to challenge that statement, but we’ll need to see it first.
Last year, Moore had his lowest yardage total since playing with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold (before their resurgences) and current Calgary Stampeders quarterback P.J. Walker. In 2025, Moore also had the ninth-most red-zone targets at the position, which only turned into two red-zone scores. Despite all of this, Moore still finished as the WR26 in 2024.
I believe last season was Moore’s floor on this offense. With the addition of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams going into his second season, Moore should easily improve on last year’s numbers and regress positively back to a productive fantasy player.
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