When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football players I’m lower on compared to ECR.
Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Wide Receivers to Avoid
Wide Receivers to Avoid
Wide Receivers I Like Less Than ECR
| Expert Consensus’s Rank | Player | Derek Brown’s Rank | Diff. |
| 5 | Malik Nabers NYG – WR | 10 | 5 |
| 13 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA – WR | 20 | 7 |
| 14 | Tyreek Hill MIA – WR | 22 | 8 |
| 20 | Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI – WR | 31 | 11 |
| 21 | DJ Moore CHI – WR | 27 | 6 |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in a big way in his sophomore season. He was the WR17 in fantasy points per game and really exploded down the stretch. In Weeks 9-18, he was the WR8 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share (25.4%), tenth in receiving yards per game (82.4), and ninth in yards per route run and first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I was very bullish about Smith-Njigba last year, but I find myself worried about his 2025 outlook. The Seattle Seahawks are going to lean on their ground game more this season after ranking sixth in pass rate over expectation and fourth in neutral passing rate in 2024. Even if Smith-Njigba proves that he can pick up right where he left off, his raw target volume could dip this season. I’m also worried about him playing more on the perimeter this season. Last year, during that insane stretch, he ran out of the slot on 81.3% of his snaps. Last year, his separation (0.035 vs. 0.068) and route win rate (9.4% vs. 10.4%) were notably worse as a perimeter wide receiver, while also noting that his overall numbers in these metrics were surprisingly poor. Overall, among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 62nd in separation score and 88th in route win rate. Smith-Njigba could return low-end WR2 value this season, but he’s a tough player to click as a high-end WR2/ borderline WR1.
Father Time remains undefeated. Tyreek Hill could see his efficiency dip again this season another year older. Last year, with Tua Tagovailoa under center (Weeks 8-16), Hill was the WR24 in fantasy points per game while ranking 36th in yards per route run, 34th in target share, and 33rd in receiving yards per game. Overall, last year, he was 28th in separation and 48th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). None of this screams, “Hill is a top 15-20 wide receiver this season & a must-draft player.” Hill could return WR2 value in 2025 if he can hold off Father Time and rebound from the wrist injury that plagued him last season. If Hill dips in drafts, I’ll get exposure to him, but he’s not a player I’m prioritizing in drafts.
D.J. Moore had a rough 2024 season despite still drawing a high-end target share in the Chicago passing attack and finishing 98 receptions as the WR26 in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying receivers, Moore still drew a ton of volume, ranking 13th in target share (24.4%) and tenth in first-read share (31.8%), but his per-route numbers were rough. Yes, Caleb Williams was partially to blame as Moore ranked 55th in catchable target rate, which could partially explain his 1.53 yards per route run (60th), 56.8 receiving yards per game (35th), and 0.068 first downs per route run (67th). It doesn’t, however, wipe away his 76th ranking in separation and 59th standing in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams’ performance and the hype around Ben Johnson paying off will factor into a possible Moore bounce back, but Moore’s play must also return to previous levels for it to happen in 2025. Moore still likely serves as the team’s leading target earner this season as a steady WR3 with WR2 upside.
