Podcast Hosts and Lawn Mower Talks 00:30
“Oh, it’s Saturday. Vroom, vroom. Hop on that lawnmower, Jason.”
- The episode opens with a lighthearted introduction featuring the hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. They exclaim their excitement about Saturday and engage in playful banter about a riding lawnmower, particularly focusing on Jason’s reluctance due to the heat in Arizona.
Transition to NFL Content and NFC South Breakdown 01:30
“It’s the Fantasy Footballers Podcast back with you. NFC South breakdown episode.”
- The discussion shifts from joking about lawnmowers to the main topic: a breakdown of the NFC South division in the NFL. The hosts express their enthusiasm for exploring the changes in the division and highlight that there are questions and expected answers regarding player performances.
Legal Troubles for Rashi Rice 05:48
“A Dallas County judge has sentenced Rashi Rice to five years probation and 30 days of jail time.”
- In an important legal update, the hosts discuss Rashi Rice’s recent sentencing due to his involvement in a multi-car crash. They emphasize the implications for his NFL career, predicting a likely suspension for the 2025 season, and analyze potential impacts on team dynamics, specifically mentioning how this could affect players like Travis Kelsey and Patrick Mahomes.
Effects on Fantasy Projections and Team Strategies 08:33
“Kelsey got off to a really slow start last year.”
- As they delve into fantasy implications, the hosts agree that Rice’s potential absence could significantly alter fantasy projections for the Kansas City Chiefs. They observe that Kelsey may benefit from increased targets due to Rice’s anticipated suspension, which also raises concerns regarding team depth and player performances throughout the season.
Draft Pick Debates and Risk Assessment 09:53
“There was plenty of debate on whether he was a decent draft pick or not.”
- Before recent developments regarding a player’s health, discussions were ongoing about whether selecting him in the draft was a wise decision.
- Unlike situations with other star players like Justin Jefferson, this player faces more uncertainty and potential risk, as he may be missing several games due to health issues.
- The current implications suggest owners will need to reserve a bench spot for him and consider the draft capital invested.
- As the draft progresses, there is speculation about where he might end up; he might drop to the fourth round or even later, presenting a high-risk investment for fantasy owners.
“Jordan Addison pleaded guilty to a wet reckless charge.”
- Jordan Addison‘s legal situation has taken center stage, as he recently pleaded guilty to a lesser vehicular offense referred to as a “wet reckless.”
- This charge is essentially a plea bargain that reduces a more severe misdemeanor, which typically raises concerns regarding the player’s reliability and conduct off the field.
- The anticipated consequences include a suspension likely spanning two to three games, impacting his availability during critical times of the season.
- While the terminology might sound amusing, it’s important to recognize that such offenses should not be taken lightly and can have serious repercussions for both the player and the team.
Recent Updates on Players and Draft Insights 12:43
“Mike Williams officially retired from the NFL after eight seasons.”
- In the latest news, Mike Williams has announced his retirement from the NFL at just 30 years old, following a career marred by injuries.
- As a former first-round pick, Williams showcased impressive talent but struggled to maintain consistent health throughout his career, leading to a significant impact on his performance and longevity in the league.
- With his retirement, the Chargers have signed Trey Harris, who is being regarded highly within fantasy circles, indicating a shift in team dynamics.
- In addition, discussions around other players, such as Quinton Johnston, highlight the need for attention as the Chargers navigate changes in their roster ahead of the season.
NFL Divisional Breakdown and Tampa Bay Analysis 19:22
“We’ll jump into our divisional breakdown, starting with the NFC South.”
- The discussion transitions into an NFC South divisional breakdown, focusing on teams like Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans. The analysis will consider player performance, rookie contributions, coaching changes, and adjustments in both offenses and defenses.
- Tampa Bay’s previous season ended with them winning the division title with a 10-7 record, marking the second consecutive year the title was undecided until the final week. The team was strong in fantasy football, showcasing notable performances from players like Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rashad White.
“The Buccaneers were 10 and 7 but were only 3 and 5 in one-score games.”
- Statistically, Tampa Bay achieved the over on their Vegas win total in 5 of the past 6 years, indicating consistency in performance, although they struggled in close games last season. Their 2023 win total is projected at 9.5, up from the previous year’s 7.5, alongside having one of the easier strength-of-schedule ratings.
- Last season, the Buccaneers were among the best in the league in terms of points and yards per game, which is characterized by impressive statistics among their offensive players and an extraordinary passing efficiency record.
“They became the first team in NFL history to complete over 70% of their passes while averaging over 5 yards per catch.”
- The team significantly boosted its offensive capabilities, highlighted by the recent addition of a highly touted rookie receiver and the re-signing of Chris Godwin. This depth presents a positive outlook for their passing attack, even with the uncertainty surrounding Baker Mayfield‘s ability to adapt to yet another coaching change.
“The biggest question maybe being, can Baker work his magic again with a third offensive coordinator in the last three years?”
- While there are concerns about the offensive cohesion under a new coordinator, Baker’s performance last season has given hope for a successful outcome. The discussion emphasizes the potential for Baker’s regression, noting that while his high touchdown rates are impressive, they may not be sustainable.
“If he scores 35 passing touchdowns, then he’ll be among the league leaders.”
- The conversation tackles Baker Mayfield‘s future projections, contrasting high statistics from last season to more realistic expectations moving forward. While the potential for a solid showing exists, the possibility of regression is acknowledged due to historical performance patterns.
- Analysts predict that while Mayfield may remain a reliable quarterback for fantasy football, it is unlikely he will reach the same extraordinary touchdown production as last year. Discussions conclude on the importance of assessing available talent and making informed decisions on fantasy drafts based on these projections.
Evaluating Quarterback Success Odds 29:21
“The best thing we can do, though, is approach it from the perspective on all these quarterbacks of what are your highest odds of getting success at the position.”
- The discussion emphasizes the importance of evaluating quarterbacks based on their likelihood of achieving success. This includes not only general success but also the potential for a quarterback to be a standout performer, referred to as a “league winner.”
- It highlights the need to consider variance in performance, acknowledging that while all quarterbacks face fluctuations, selecting those with the highest outcome potential is essential for fantasy success.
“Would you rather have Baker in the sixth or Jordan Love in the ninth? I’ll take Baker.”
- The panel believes that Baker Mayfield presents a safer investment, particularly given his recent performance trend and favorable conditions, such as a strong offensive line and schedule.
- Mayfield is viewed not just as a consistent player but as a potential QB7, making him a strategic choice in the sixth round of drafts.
“Rashad White is being ignored in drafts, a tenth-round pick. You shouldn’t.”
- Despite Rashad White’s current low draft ranking, he is recognized for his substantial involvement in the offense, noting over 200 opportunities last season. While not seen as a top-tier player, his potential for late-round value in fantasy leagues is significant.
- The discussion underscores that while he may not represent the future for Tampa Bay, he fits the profile of players who can surprise and deliver value in the late rounds of drafts.
Analyzing the Wide Receiver Situation with the Buccaneers 31:56
“Chris Godwin was essentially the alpha before he went down to injury.”
- The conversation shifts to the wide receiver dynamics in Tampa Bay, where Mike Evans is favored over Chris Godwin despite both players sharing an identical target share.
- Evans is seen as having a higher upside due to his ability to secure touchdowns and make explosive plays, while Godwin’s recent injury history introduces some uncertainty.
“If you had to bet your house on Mike Evans getting a thousand yards or not, of course, I’ll take the thousand yards.”
- The debate outlines the potential risks and rewards involved in drafting either receiver, with Evans’s historical performance lending him a degree of reliability that Godwin lacks, particularly coming off injuries.
- The analysis includes factors like target distribution and the supporting cast affecting each player’s performance, hinting at how past seasons dictate future expectations while weighing in on their average draft positions.
“From the McVay universe, we get a slight pass with just what happened with Kirk Cousins.”
- The discussion highlights a critical evaluation of Kirk Cousins after a challenging season, suggesting that the audience will be judging him harshly based on his future performance.
- There’s a strong emphasis on having a highly valued top 10 quarterback pick, which intensifies the pressure for Cousins to deliver solid performances moving forward.
“Bijan is a game script-proof back.”
- Bijan Robinson is positioned as a prime candidate in fantasy drafts with outstanding performance metrics from the previous season.
- His consistent scoring, where he achieved 17-plus fantasy points in nearly every game from week six onwards, underscores his reliability as a top-tier running back.
- Factors such as an excellent offensive line and his versatility in various game scenarios enhance his appeal as a must-have player in drafts.
Assessing Pass Catchers on the Team 39:53
“There’s literally nothing to criticize with Bijan.”
- While Bijan Robinson stands out, other pass catchers on the team, such as Drake London and Kyle Pitts, raise concerns.
- Drake London is recognized for his potential despite a lack of competition, as he could become the alpha wide receiver with ample target opportunity.
- Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts shows a concerning trend with declining performance metrics, leading to skepticism about his future impact on fantasy football.
“He’s the oldest 24-year-old on planet Earth.”
- Kyle Pitts is critically viewed as a major bust despite being only 24 years old, with comparisons made to notable sports figures who faced similar fates.
- His year’s performance has been consistently disappointing, casting doubt on his ability to fulfill expectations; however, there remains a glimmer of hope tied to his age and draft pedigree.
“They are projected for one more win this year.”
- The Carolina Panthers are assessed as a team with historically poor performance yet potential for improvement.
- They managed a poor point differential last year, but with the emergence of QB Bryce Young in later games, there’s optimism for scoring more points moving forward.
- The combination of an improving offense and historically poor defense presents unique opportunities for fantasy players seeking undervalued assets.
“Chuba is a treasure and he’s interesting, but I like him as a late fourth or early fifth round pick because nobody wants to stink of Carolina.”
- The speaker expresses optimism for Chuba, noting his potential value despite the general skepticism around the Carolina Panthers.
- They suggest Chuba is being undervalued in drafts, considering he could be a top 10 talent in the NFL.
- Chuba’s performance could surprise many as he could emerge as a key contributor in the upcoming season.
The Panthers’ Optimism and Potential Improvement 49:06
“I think we got a chance here with Carolina.”
- The speaker believes there is a possibility for the Panthers to improve in performance this year, contrasting the common belief that they will continue to struggle.
- They reference the NFL’s tendency for teams to have unexpected turnarounds, highlighting that about 23% of teams improve their win total by three or more games annually.
- Parity is emphasized, as it is a notable feature of the NFL, allowing even teams with recent poor performance challenges to reshape their fate.
Chuba’s Potential Workload and Competition 50:25
“Chuba’s workload is going to be there.”
- Following Jonathan Brooks’ injury, Chuba is expected to receive a substantial workload, which boosts his fantasy potential.
- Chuba has proven he can handle a large volume of touches, as he performed well last season, ranking as RB7 from weeks three to sixteen.
- Despite concerns about his receiving capabilities, it’s clear he has the ability to contribute significantly on the ground.
Fantasy Projections for Players 51:11
“If everything goes right, McMillan’s ceiling could be the wide receiver 15.”
- The discussion turns to the potential ceiling for players like Teddero and McMillan, suggesting that if all goes well, they could achieve higher fantasy rankings.
- In contrast, potential competition from veteran players like Adam Thielen is noted, although the speaker does not believe Thielen will hinder McMillan’s success.
- The statistical performance of Thielen, when healthy, is highlighted as an indicator of potential output for the Panthers’ offensive players.
“I think Tyler Shough could surprise.”
- Tyler Shuck is seen as a quarterback with the potential to make an impact, especially considering his recent experiences in the NFL.
- Comparisons are made to players like Jaden Daniels, who spent a longer time in college and benefited from that development period.
- However, despite his potential, statistics show that success for day two quarterbacks has been limited. Since 2014, out of 24 QBs chosen in that round, only three have had notable success in fantasy football: Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr, and Jimmy Garoppolo.
- The odds do not favor Shuck, with about a 90% chance of failure based on existing data. If Shuck is indeed skilled, injuries during his college career hindered his performance and opportunities.
Concerns About the Saints’ Offense and Player Viability 58:30
“I struggle to see how this season goes differently than we expect.”
- There are significant concerns regarding the New Orleans Saints‘ offensive setup this season, characterized by a weak offensive line and unreliable pass catchers, which could impede success.
- While Alvin Kamara is considered a reliable player who can accumulate fantasy points due to his pass-catching abilities, his value may be affected by the team’s struggles.
- Chris Olave is viewed as a talented receiver, but there are doubts about his consistency and injury risk, leading to uncertainty about his performance relative to other wide receivers.
“Juwan Johnson, if you don’t know who he is, he is the tight end for the New Orleans Saints.”
- Juwan Johnson, who signed a lucrative three-year contract, is introduced as a fantasy sleeper due to potential opportunities in the team’s offensive scheme under new offensive coach Kellen Moore.
- Johnson’s past performance shows that he had a significant role in receiving last season, particularly from the slot, which could be vital given the current receiver lineup for the Saints.
- The panel discusses the challenges the Saints face, including difficult matchups early in the season, which may impact their overall performance.
Predictions for the Upcoming Season and Division Rankings 01:02:09
“Tampa Bay will finish first in this division.”
- The presenters engage in a prediction segment about the upcoming season, suggesting Tampa Bay is the best team in their division, with Carolina and Atlanta trailing behind, and New Orleans at the bottom.
- There is a recognition of the unpredictability in the division, emphasizing how past seasons have seen varying outcomes up until the final weeks.
- The possibility of the Falcons being a surprise contender is raised, suggesting they have made substantial personnel improvements.