Ponnaiya’s prediction: “The Diamond” completes the sweep of Holloway in trilogy bout.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Dustin Poirier before his bout against Michael Chandler during UFC 281.
Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier meet for a third time in the main event of UFC 318 tonight, with the BMF title on the line.
This bout marks Poirier’s retirement fight, and while he’s a slight +110 underdog in the UFC odds, he’s already bested Holloway twice and looks set to do it again.
Here are my Holloway vs. Poirier predictions for UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19, live from the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans.
Holloway vs Poirier prediction and best bet
Fight analysis
These two fought at featherweight all the way back in 2012, with Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier submitting a 20-year-old Max “Blessed” Holloway.
They clashed again in 2019, this time with the vacant lightweight title on the line, and Poirier prevailed by unanimous decision. Poirier won with 49-46 scorecards across the board and hurt Holloway with multiple power shots in the first two rounds.
A lot has changed since then, but at their core, both fighters are still the same. Holloway has the edge in cardio and volume, but Poirier has more power, along with better clinch work.
Poirier boasts excellent boxing fundamentals and mixes up his striking with more kicks. The Louisiana native also fights with a high guard that prevents shots from landing cleanly to his head.
That striking defense could be the difference in this one since Holloway tends to rely on his chin. He is known for his durability but is coming off the first knockout loss of his career, and with a ton of damage absorbed, his chin will be compromised.
Best bet analysis
Poirier proved he still had something left in the tank when he faced Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title last year. He put together a competitive performance against the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world despite getting subbed in the fifth round.
Meanwhile, Holloway is coming off an ugly knockout loss to Ilia Topuria when he moved back down to featherweight last October. Don’t forget that while Holloway owns the UFC record for significant strikes landed, he has also absorbed the most significant strikes to the head in history.
While his granite chin had previously held up, it was finally cracked by Topuria. We’ve seen with many aging fighters that once their chin goes, they can’t absorb shots like they previously used to, and Poirier’s heavy hands will test that.
In addition, Holloway has a lot of scar tissue and tends to wear the damage on his face, which results in poor optics for judges. I’m backing Poirier to go out with a win in his home state.
Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Holloway | Poirier |
| To win outright | -145 | +125 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +440 | +335 |
| To win by decision | +155 | +295 |
| To win by submission | +2000 | +1250 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 7-19.
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Holloway vs Poirier betting splits
Opening odds
Holloway: -125
Poirier: +105
Current odds
Holloway: -135
Poirier: +110
Ticket%
Holloway: 23%
Poirier: 77%
Handle%
Holloway: 31%
Poirier: 69%
Data courtesy of BetMGM.
Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier tale of the tape
| Holloway | Poirier | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 69 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 26-8 | Record | 30-9-0 (1 NC) |
| 12 | Wins by KO | 16 |
| 2 | Wins by submission | 7 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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