Too often, we overlook valuable data from the previous season that could give us a real edge in fantasy drafts. One of the most important tools to utilize and exploit during draft season is ADP; yet, once the games begin, we tend to forget where players were actually drafted and focus only on how they finished.
It is often said that we do not dislike players; we dislike their draft cost. By comparing a player’s draft position to their end-of-season finish, we can uncover meaningful insights about their true value. Looking back at ADP versus actual production helps us evaluate whether players lived up to their draft-day price or fell short.
In this article, we will analyze where the top QBs were drafted in 2024 and where they finished, as well as which top finishers were draft-day bargains. The goal is to identify trends and actionable takeaways you can use to gain an edge in your 2025 fantasy drafts.
Use the ADP Platform Comparison tool in the UDK to pinpoint positional value and gain a competitive edge on draft day!
Note: All statistics used are half-PPR scoring per the Ballers’ Consistency Charts found at JointheFoot.com. All ADP data is sourced from Sleeper.
Top-12 Drafted QBs in 2024:
Looking at the top 12 QBs drafted last year in fantasy leagues, only two exceeded their ADP. Lamar Jackson, drafted as the QB4, finished as the overall QB1 in total points. Joe Burrow also outperformed expectations, finishing four spots higher than where he was drafted.
On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes continues to be overvalued in fantasy drafts. Despite being widely recognized as the best QB in the NFL, he has now been drafted much higher than he has finished for multiple seasons, making him one of the worst perennial values at the position.
After the top QBs, a steep drop-off appeared, with a wave of major busts. CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson were two of the most notable disappointments, and their ADPs were driven more by hype and upside potential than proven, sustained production. While there is always a chance of hitting on high-upside players like this, investing significant draft capital in unproven QBs is a high-risk move that often ends poorly.
Dak Prescott and Jordan Love fell short of their draft-day expectations last season, but both dealt with injuries and missed enough time to warrant a bit of a pass. Several QBs did finish right around expectations, but in general, the top-tier options are more reliable and often worth the investment, especially those who contribute as rushers. Performance metrics from recent seasons confirm that dual-threat QBs offer a more stable path to elite fantasy output than traditional pocket passers, whose value hinges on unsustainable TD totals.
Ultimately, last year’s data shows that paying up for elite talent can pay off, but banking on a mid-round breakout rarely does. A better strategy might be to wait and target QBs with similar upside profiles at more affordable ADPs, which helps limit risk without sacrificing ceiling.
Top-12 QB Fantasy Finishes in 2024 (Weeks 1-17):
Looking back at last season’s top-12 fantasy QB finishes, the list starts off predictably but quickly takes a turn. Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, and Sam Darnold all drastically outperformed their draft capital. Daniels was a popular late-round target thanks to his elite rushing upside, but the others were waiver wire pickups in most leagues.
Mayfield and Nix both finished near the top of the league in passing TDs and also cracked the top 10 in rushing yards at the position, each surpassing 375 yards. That kind of rushing production might not seem like much, but it significantly boosts a QB’s weekly floor and ceiling.
Meanwhile, players like Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, and Brock Purdy finished about where they were drafted but rarely felt like true difference-makers. Their week-to-week volatility made them more frustrating than their season-long point totals suggest.
The takeaway? Instead of investing in mid-round QB1s with limited upside or gambling on a breakout, it is often smarter to target late-round QBs with rushing potential. Pairing a safe, high-floor option with a dual-threat upside play could be a winning strategy and deliver the best return on investment.
Top-12 Drafted QBs in 2025 (Current Sleeper ADP):
Now that we have reviewed and analyzed last season’s ADP compared to actual finishes, we can apply those trends to 2025 fantasy drafts. While ADP will continue to shift over the next month, we already have a solid sense of where QBs will be selected.
After the first five names: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow, there is a clear tier break. These QBs are worth their elevated draft cost and carry high-end upside, assuming they stay healthy. The ADP Platform Comparison tool in the UDK helps you see exactly where these top options are being drafted across different platforms, making it easier to spot value picks and gain a strategic edge in your specific league.
Despite underwhelming returns in recent seasons relative to ADP, Patrick Mahomes is still being drafted early, mainly due to name value and his winning pedigree. Unless Kansas City’s defense regresses or the offense becomes more aggressive, Mahomes is unlikely to return value at his current cost. Unless he falls to a more reasonable draft range, he is best avoided.
After Mahomes, several QBs are being drafted right around where they finished last year, including Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, and Justin Herbert. Of this group, Mayfield and Nix stand out as potential weekly difference-makers. While history suggests we should be cautious about mid-round QBs who exceeded expectations last season, both provide a solid rushing floor and have enough working in their favor to justify optimism heading into 2025.
The key takeaway is to avoid reaching above their draft cost in case regression hits, but be ready to take advantage if they fall to the right spot. Luckily, Nix is currently going around the eighth round on average, which feels like solid value considering the opportunity cost. Mayfield had a TD rate of 7.2% last year, which feels a bit unsustainable given his previous production history. Due to this, he might feel like a steep investment in rounds 5 or 6, but his 7.05 ADP on ESPN suggests a sweet spot to target. This QB tier reveals some major ADP differences between platforms, and the ADP Platform Comparison tool helps you take full advantage.
Murray could join that group if he rediscovers his elite rushing form and the Cardinals take a step forward offensively. Jordan Love also stands out as an intriguing bounce-back candidate to target. Just outside the top 12, there is a path for names like Brock Purdy, Caleb Williams, and C.J. Stroud to offer some upside, but they do not project as weekly game-breakers. They are capable of outperforming ADP, but the ceiling and opportunity cost are not as enticing as others going later.
If you are hunting for potential draft-day steals at QB, four names stand out: Dak Prescott, Drake Maye, Justin Fields, and J.J. McCarthy.
Prescott has flashed elite fantasy production in the past, and with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens in his corner, he is well-positioned for a bounce-back season. Fields emerges as one of the best late-round targets thanks to his elite rushing upside. Even if Garrett Wilson ends up as his only consistent receiving threat, Fields’s ability to extend plays and pile up yardage on the ground gives him weekly breakout potential, something we saw often during his time in Chicago.
Maye is another intriguing option with sneaky rushing ability. If he takes a Year 2 leap and gets competent production from his receivers, he has the tools to deliver serious fantasy value. Then there is McCarthy, who has not played an NFL snap but walks into the same system that sparked a career revival for Sam Darnold last season. With elite weapons and more athleticism than Darnold, McCarthy could offer the kind of rushing floor and surprise production that Bo Nix delivered in 2024. Both Maye and McCarthy are going significantly later than Caleb Williams in drafts, yet they offer a similar ceiling.
While all options deserve attention, Love, Prescott, and Fields are my top three late-round QB targets. Drafting QBs with rushing upside, strong supporting casts, or overlooked bounce-back potential in the late rounds continues to be one of the most reliable paths to value in fantasy football. If you choose to wait on the position rather than invest in an early-round option, taking a shot on one of these names could allow you to load up at other positions while still landing a QB with elite fantasy potential at a fraction of the cost.
