Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for July 21: George Springer among best bets for Monday HR player props

George Springer might have been an All-Star snub, but it’s still clear to anybody paying attention that he’s been vital to the first-place Toronto Blue Jays in 2025. The 35-year-old is slashing .279/.369/.503 and launched his 17th home run of the season on Sunday. He’s now 6-for-12 since returning from the All-Star break, and Monday presents an opportunity to take advantage of a motivated Springer by adding him to your MLB HR picks. 

The latest MLB home run odds from BetMGM list Springer at +450 to hit a home run, making him one of the best values in our MLB HR parlay today. Yankees superstar Aaron Judge is +200 to hit a home run and +1600 to hit 2+ homers. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can get $150 in bonus bets instantly with the placement of a $5+ bet by using this bet365 bonus code and take advantage of one of the top sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 52.2 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Monday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. You can also check out the top MLB player props, MLB longshot picks, and game picks for Red Sox vs. Phillies. 

Best MLB home run picks for Monday, July 21:

George Springer, Blue Jays (+450)

The 2017 World Series MVP for Houston is now in his fifth season with the Blue Jays and seems to be seeing the ball as well as ever. His chase rate is down to 19.9% (92nd percentile among MLB hitters) while his 14.7% barrel rate (88th percentile) and 40.4% launch-angle sweep spot rate (93rd percentile). 

“At home this season, Springer has a .300 batting average and a .964 OPS compared to a .257 average and .784 OPS on the road,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set Springer’s line at +348 to homer.” We’re playing this at BetMGM for our MLB HR parlay, but you can also find this price at DraftKings and get $150 in bonus bets instantly as a new user with the latest DraftKings promo code.

James Wood, Nationals (+475)

Wood slugged 24 home runs in the first half on his way to his first MLB all-star selection and also competed in the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby. He was eliminated in the first round, but hit a 488-foot blast that completely left Truist Park to showcase his incredible raw power. He ended a five-game hitless streak with a single on Sunday, and he’ll have a juicy matchup on Monday to get back on track.

“Brady Singer has given up eight of his 11 HRs this season to left-handed batters. Singer has also been hit hard over the last month, allowing opponents to hit .295 with an .851 in his last four starts,” Fetner said. “We set Wood’s line at +315 and like the buy low spot here.” Once again, it’s BetMGM with the best price for this MLB HR prop, and you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet doesn’t win:

Brandon Lowe, Rays (+400)

Lowe and the Rays will take on the White Sox and right-hander Sean Burke on Monday. Lowe has hit 16 of his 19 home runs this season against right-handed pitching and lefties are hitting .269 off Burke this season. It will also be a warm night in Tampa with a slight breeze blowing out to right field in a stadium that is already pretty home run friendly.

“We don’t have a ton of value here, but the line itself on BetMGM offers great value compared to other books. Lowe’s consensus line is +312 to hit a HR,” Fetner said. “We set Lowe’s line at +398 to homer today.” New users at FanDuel Sportsbook can get $150 in bonus bets if their first $5 wager wins with the latest FanDuel promo code: 

Where to bet MLB props on Monday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Monday:

More MLB picks for Monday

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 55-45-1 roll (+1561) on MLB picks.