With the teeth of draft season just around the corner, it’s a good time to get the Shuffle Up series going. This week, I’ll offer my player tiers for the four major positions in fantasy football. Consider them as you get ready for your own drafts, or self-scout the teams you’ve already assembled. We handled the quarterbacks on Monday, and today we take on the running backs. The wideouts and tight ends will follow later this week.
What matters is how the players relate to one another, where the talent clusters and where it drops off. Players at the same salary are considered even.
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Running back remains the most important of the four major positions in fantasy football, the area we desperately want to get correct. Last year saw a shockingly low injury rate at this position, something that’s unlikely to repeat. No matter how you address this spot at the front of your draft — Zero RB, Hero RB, Robust RB — you’ll probably be sure to proactively draft a bunch of high-upside runners for your bench, hoping to get lucky here and there.
Just one good break at running back can make a fantasy season.
Tier 1: The Big Tickets
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It took new Atlanta OC Zac Robinson some time to find his way last year, and Bijan Robinson was affected — he was merely the RB21 after four weeks. After that, Robinson averaged 20.1 points per week and was the overall RB2. Robinson offers everything we want in an early fantasy draft pick — upside, floor, low mileage (it’s his third season, his age-23 season) and an offense that’s presumably on the improvement path, with Michael Penix Jr. likely an upgrade over the late-career version of Kirk Cousins. Bijan to the moon.
Barkley’s season had “outlier” stamped all over it, with 15 touchdowns coming from an astounding average of 29.4 yards. The Eagles didn’t give Barkley a single touchdown from the 1-yard line — that’s Jalen Hurts territory — and Barkley remarkably kept hitting those glorious home runs. But 5.8 YPCs are always poor bets to repeat (De’Von Achane waves hello) and Barkley might have trouble staying healthy after handling a ridiculous 482 touches last year. Pricing in some regression is the prudent play, and let’s not forget that Barkley missed multiple games in each of the five seasons preceding his move to Philadelphia.
McCaffrey is the most ticklish boom-bust pick on the board, capable of elevating a fantasy roster to glory (think 2019 and 2023) and capable of ruining a season before September is over (think last year). McCaffrey has just two full seasons out of his last five, and he’s moving into his ninth professional year — there’s some mileage here. Of course, McCaffrey’s value has always been significantly tied to his pass-catching chops, which enables him to be tackled by lighter defenders and avoid some of the attrition you face running inside. The 49ers’ offensive line is probably average at best, but the Kyle Shanahan schemes are always a plus. Do you feel lucky?
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Taylor’s value probably gets a boost with Daniel Jones the presumed Week 1 QB starter — whatever you think of Jones, he’s more of a professional quarterback than Anthony Richardson Sr. right now, and Jones is also less likely to take rushing yardage off the table. Taylor was humming after his return from ankle problems last year, settling in as the RB7 from Week 8 to the finish of the year. The Colts have moved away from him as a receiver in recent years, which is why Taylor now commonly lands in the second round. But this looks like a safe area to park your investment.
Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks
Walker is in a prove-it year, but he’s proving it for a new coaching staff that inherited him. Zach Charbonnet performed better than Walker in several key metrics last year, and it’s also possible the Seahawks might have a goal-line package for mobile rookie QB Jalen Milroe. Walker has also been a high-attrition back for most of his career, missing 10 games in three pro seasons. He’s not a target of mine.
Hampton was always the likely bet to take over the LAC backfield, but the Najee Harris eye injury clears the path somewhat. Hampton is five years younger than Harris and more athletic — Hampton posted a number of shiny measurables at the combine. He also showed the ability to play in all situations at North Carolina, including passing packages. Hampton has risen to RB21 in recent Yahoo drafts and could easily be a third-round staple when we move into the second part of August.
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Hall should be a player on the escalator and he’s merely entering his age-24 season. The Jets will be a run-first offense from the jump. But New York is also going to employ multiple backs in every game plan, and then there’s the presence of new QB Justin Fields, a threat to run for 1,000 yards of his own. If Hall is going to meet his expectant ADP, he needs to be active in the passing game — and Fields generally has not been a good quarterback for pass-catching backs.
Tier 3: Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
Jones isn’t a bad player, but it was interesting to see Minnesota add Mason to the backfield — Mason is about five years younger and he’s 15 pounds heavier than Jones. It’s possible Mason could become the short-yardage specialist here, and he looked like a potential feature back during his San Francisco days. Mason isn’t a cheap lottery ticket — his Yahoo ADP is just outside the top 100 — but he’s still someone I view as a proactive pick. Minnesota’s depth is short behind this duo, so Mason will probably have a tangible role on opening day.
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The buzz on Harvey became a little more muted after the addition of J.K. Dobbins, but keep in mind Dobbins has been an ordinary pass-catcher all through his pro career. Dobbins has also had trouble staying on the field, playing just 37 games over five seasons. Sean Payton has always been fine with backfield platoons, but one of the backs has a realistic shot to handle 60% or more of the work. I’ll keep betting on Harvey, the younger player with the higher upside.
Tier 4: Some Plausible Upside
Liam Coen loved to throw to his backs in Tampa Bay, and Tuten was a handy receiver at Virginia Tech. The Jaguars have plenty of competition at the position, but it’s possible they’ve soured on Travis Etienne Jr., and Tank Bigsby hasn’t shown receiving chops in the NFL. Tuten isn’t someone we’ll draft as an initial fantasy starter, but see the long-term potential here.
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Although Davis is about 30 pounds heavier than teammate James Cook, don’t overlook what Davis can do in the passing game. Davis was a reliable pass-catcher during his itinerant college days, and he secured 17-of-19 opportunities last year, making a juicy 9.9 yards per target. We’ve already had a look at what Davis might do in a featured role — he picked up a midseason start last year and rolled for 152 total yards. With Cook undersized and unhappy about his contract, Davis is one of the more interesting speculative plays on the board.
