In this article series, I’m taking a look back at outlier statistics from the 2024 season and attempting to answer the question, “Was it an anomaly, or is this the new norm for the player moving forward?” In the first edition, I took a look at QB stats. This time, I’ll be examining RBs, arguably the most important position to research in fantasy football.
2024 Recap
Last season’s RB edition of this article may have been the best of the series. I correctly pointed out the most obvious regression candidate in De’Von Achane’s ridiculous 7.8 yards/attempt in 2023, but also mentioned that his receiving work would help him remain a top-tier fantasy RB. I also wrote about the likelihood of Josh Jacobs bouncing back in Green Bay, the fact that James Cook should be able to score more TDs, and how Alvin Kamara can continue seeing a higher-than-league-average target rate.
But enough victory lapping, let’s get on to 2025.
The Stats
RBs rack up fantasy points with yardage and TDs, both on the ground and through the air. While not perfect, the stats I’m primarily examining in this article are based on efficiency, not end-of-season counting stats. Looking at these per-game or per-attempt stats gives us a better understanding of a player’s talent instead of pure volume. The table below shows the league average in some of these metrics among the 50 RBs who carried the ball at least 100 times in 2023, alongside the averages for the 49 RBs who did so in 2023.
| Statistic | 2024 Average | 2023 Average |
| Yards/Att | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| Att/TD | 27.1 | 46.7 |
| Yards/TD | 123.1 | 189.0 |
| Opp/TD | 29.4 | 48.3 |
| Tgt/Gm | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| TDs/Gm | 0.53 | 0.48 |
2024 was a banner year for fantasy RBs, and it bears out in the efficiency stats. Still, there were certainly some outliers in both directions. Let’s dive into the extreme RB stats from last season.
Derrick Henry: 5.9 yards/attempt, 19.1 attempts/game
Saquon Barkley: 5.8 yards/attempt, 21.6 attempts/game
Seeing this pair lead the league in yards/attempt isn’t shocking, but the way they did it was a bit surprising. Henry, in year nine, and Barkley, in year seven, both set new career highs in the stat after joining new teams in 2024. They also each carried the ball well over 300 times during the season. Of course, this led to them also leading the league in rushing yards, with Barkley at 2,005 and Henry at 1,921.
Anomaly or New Norm?
Barkley and Henry are widely considered two of the best RBs in the league and appear well on their way to Canton, so on the surface, last season seems pretty normal for players of their caliber. Digging deeper, however, they weren’t just good in 2024; they were historically good. Before last season, only three players had ever averaged 5.8 yards/attempt or higher on 300+ carries. You can see them all in the table below.
While Barkley and Henry should still be elite fantasy RBs, it’s unlikely that they will be historically efficient in back-to-back seasons. Their career averages are 4.7 and 4.9 yards/attempt, respectively. While their offensive environments are significantly better than they were early in their careers, we can expect their 2025 averages to dip closer to their career averages.
James Cook: 63.1 yards/TD, 12.9 attempts/TD
Cook was in this article series last season because of how rarely he found the end zone in 2023; he found it just twice on the ground despite getting 237 rushing attempts. Things turned around, and then some, in 2024. He scored TDs at twice the rate of the league average when looking at attempts and yards. His 16 total rushing TDs tied for the league lead with Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs despite having 43 fewer attempts than Gibbs and 118 fewer than Henry. All those TDs helped him finish as RB8 on the season.
Anomaly or New Norm?
Players frequently regress after outlier seasons, that’s what this article series is all about, but it’s rare to see an overcorrection as large as Cook’s from 2023 to 2024. His 12.9 attempts/TD rate was nearly ten times more efficient than the 118.5 attempts/TD rate from the previous season
There doesn’t appear to be a clear reason. The coaching staff didn’t change. Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator during the 2023 season and remained in the position in 2024. Cook didn’t get more carries; he actually had 46 fewer in 2024. He seemingly just had a lot of TD luck. Cook appears to have had back-to-back anomalous seasons and should regress to somewhere between the two in 2025, at least when it comes to TDs.
Jahmyr Gibbs: 9.9 Yards/Rec, 1.18 TD/game
David Montgomery: 9.5 Yards/Rec, 2.24 Yards/RR
Detroit’s “Sonic and Knuckles” RB duo was arguably the best in the league last season. Gibbs finished as the RB3 overall, while Montgomery ended up at RB18, respectively. But those end-of-season numbers don’t tell the full story. Through the first 14 weeks of the season, Gibbs was the RB4, but Montgomery wasn’t far behind him as the RB10. During these first 14 weeks, each Detroit RB scored 12 TDs. Unfortunately, a knee injury cost Monty the last three games of the season, which also allowed Gibbs to explode and become a true league-winning RB in the fantasy playoffs.
What may have flown under the radar is how effective Montgomery was through the air in 2024. With a nickname like “Knuckles”, he’s usually regarded as the grinder on the ground as opposed to “Sonic’s” explosive all-around playmaking. Gibbs averaged one more target/game than Montgomery, but Monty was highly efficient with his work through the air, to the tune of leading all RBs at 2.24 yards/RR.
When it came to scoring TDs, both did so at a rate higher than the league average. Gibbs’ 1.18 TDs/game led the league, while Montgomery’s 0.86 TDs/game ranked eighth. You can see both their receiving and scoring efficiency in the table below.
Gibbs is locked in as a first-round pick in 2025 fantasy drafts, while Montgomery’s success from last season has been largely ignored or forgotten, as he is currently going off draft boards in round five as the RB21 in average draft position (ADP).
Anomaly or New Norm?
There is a lot to unpack here. Let’s start with Gibbs. Leading the league in TDs probably won’t happen again in 2025, as it’s a difficult feat to repeat season to season. He scored 11 as a rookie, which breaks down to 0.73 TDs/game. However, it’s important to remember that the Lions eased him into the league, giving him just 14.3 opportunities/game on 43% snap share over the first four games of his rookie season. Conversely, he saw 23.3 opportunities/game and a 66% snap share in the final four weeks of last season when Montgomery was hurt. Those numbers, along with his TD rate, will likely settle closer to his career averages of 17.7 opportunities/game and 0.97 TDs/game if he and Montgomery both stay healthy.
As for Montgomery, he also found the end zone at a higher rate in 2024 than his career average of 0.63 TDs/game, though that number jumps up to 0.89 TDs/game in his two seasons in Detroit. When it comes to his work through the air, he nearly doubled his career average of 1.13 yards/RR last season. He had never been above 1.17 yards/RR over his first five seasons. His efficiency in the receiving game is due for some major regression.
A final note on “Sonic and Knuckles” as we approach fantasy drafts. If we look into the consistency ratings in the Ultimate Draft Kit, we find that Montgomery has been the fourth most consistent RB to finish in the top 24 over the past two seasons at 82.1% of the time. Gibbs isn’t far behind him, ranking sixth and finishing in the top 24 78.1% of the time. Given their respective ADPs mentioned earlier, Gibbs may be being drafted at his ceiling, while Montgomery could be one of the best values in drafts.
Jaylen Warren: 167 Opp/TD, 0.07 TDs/game
Warren simply did not find the end zone in 2024. Well, he did once. His lone TD on 167 opportunities was the worst rate in the league. He managed to eke out five top 24 fantasy weeks, but also finished outside of the top 36 six times. He ended the season as the RB41 overall.
Anomaly or New Norm?
Warren has never been much of a TD scorer. While his career average of 83.5 opportunities/TD doubles his 2024 rate, it’s still well below the league average. With the departure of Najee Harris and the addition of rookie Kaleb Johnson in Pittsburgh, Warren may get an opportunity to be the lead back, but it’s tough to envision him turning into a TD machine when looking at his first three seasons. A lower-than-average TD rate is probably the norm for Warren.
