How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football: WRs & TEs (2025)

Before the 2025 NFL Draft kicked off, I released an article titled ‘How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football: Pre-Draft (2025)‘ to provide some insight into the approach for rookies in dynasty and pre-draft best ball fantasy football formats.

The first-year talent that has entered the league over the past few seasons warrants excitement because they are hitting the ground running for fantasy football.

The list is impressive: Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Bucky Irving, Brock Bowers, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Jalen McMillan, Tyrone Tracy, C.J. Stroud, Zay Flowers, Sam LaPorta, Puka Nacua, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Let’s look at fantasy football rookie wide receivers/tight ends and how you should value them for 2025 redraft leagues.

How to Value Rookie Wide Receivers in Fantasy Football

Wide Receivers

Ask anybody six years ago how long it takes for a wide receiver to break out and the typical response would usually be three seasons. But how the college game has evolved in recent years has influenced how impactful wide receivers can be from the start. LSU standouts Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. are the peak examples of the phenomenon, shattering record after record as first-year players.

Ohio State wideouts Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave found similar success in their most recent rookie seasons. In 2023, we had two non-first/second-round receivers hit between Tank Dell and Puka Nacua, who dominated as rookies when healthy.

Last season, the trend continued; although it was with top-tier receivers along with ones drafted outside the first round — Ladd McConkey, and Jalen McMillan, to some extent — who also produced as rookies.

Rookie Wide Receivers Since 2013

We have reached the point that if a receiver hasn’t hit by their second season nowadays that the panic button goes off as both real-life and fantasy teams look to move on.

See Marvin Harrison Jr.

And I can’t argue the logic with that. The track record of rookie receivers who do nothing in Year 1 is bad. The most recent “success” story is Quentin Johnston, who bounced back after a god-awful rookie campaign.

But before that, D.J. Chark was the last wideout to have a great sophomore year after virtually doing nothing as a rookie. Even so, Chark has done nothing since. Johnston is also hardly out of the woods yet, especially with the Los Angeles Chargers drafting two wide receivers in this year’s draft (Tre Harris in round two and KeAndre Lambert-Smith in round five).

However, compared to running backs, you can see a stark contrast in hit rates based on draft capital.

Twenty-six percent of first-round wide receivers finishing as top-24 options is more probable than a third-round running back ending as a top-24 option (16%).

Therefore, the data suggests you should never draft a third-round running back over a receiver with first-round draft capital (specifically in the long term). Especially with top-20 receivers, versus fringe late round one/early round two players.

Last year’s rookie draft average draft position (ADP) reflected this — Trey Benson was a third-round running back who was drafted before some first-round receivers, despite being an injury-contingent bet with the Arizona Cardinals.

From last year‘s post:

“I think it’s fair to go with Benson (or Brooks, for that matter) over some of the Round 1 WRs if you have reservations about them. But you do take on much more risk. As much as I like Benson, he’s still a third-round pick. Nothing would stop Arizona from replacing him after a so-so year. It’s harder for franchises to do that with WRs they draft in Round 1 (unless you are Quentin Johnston).”

I had Benson ahead of guys like Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette and Ricky Pearsall. In 2025, Benson has the third-lowest value of the bunch.

I noted that Blake Corum was also ranked ahead of Legette by consensus, which I didn’t agree with. That’s a prime example of reaching too far on a round three running back versus a round one wide receiver. It’s also a prime example of a decision where you were wrong either way.

Time and time again, you typically don’t want to be that person in your rookie drafts or redraft leagues to pass on first-round wideouts in favor of Day 2/Day 3 running backs. It tends to be a bad process that plays out over time and will not work in your favor.

This year’s example is Cam Skattebo frequently going ahead of Jayden Higgins.

Now, data suggests this is an incorrect approach in the aggregate, as the Rachaad White/De’Von Achane examples from years past suggest their value can exceed one, if not multiple, receivers selected in round one (or the very top of round two).

As I alluded to in my running backs article, I believe Kaleb Johnson falls into this category as an exception to the rule. The 2025 running back class is also particularly strong, whereas the wide receiver class was viewed as much weaker.

2025 Wide Receivers Drafted in Rounds 1 & 2

The most fantasy-relevant rookie wide receivers are consistently drafted in the first two rounds. Forty-three rookie wide receivers have finished inside the top 36 (WR3 territory) over the last 11 years — 36 were drafted inside the top two rounds of the NFL Draft (84%).

Round two or higher rookie wide receivers have combined for fantasy WR3 seasons at a 65% clip.

Based on the hit rates I’ve previously touched on, I’d project at least one or two of the four first-round rookie wideouts in this class to finish as top-24 options. Only one is priced as such: Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan.

I think the two candidates that would be top-24 options are obvious between McMillan and Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Travis Hunter.

Of the four second-round receivers selected, I’d project maybe one to finish as a top-24 option or at least a top-36 option.

In 2023, this is where I suggested Rashee Rice seemed like the best bet based on the opportunity he should see in a high-powered Chiefs option. I also mentioned Marvin Mims (miss).

In 2024, the copy and paste analysis was Ladd McConkey, with Keon Coleman mentioned as the secondary option. Another hit, followed by a small miss.

So in 2025, which second-round rookie wideout has a relatively easy path to targets in a high-powered offense?

Hate to beat a dead horse, but isn’t the answer just clearly Jayden Higgins? Drafted 34th overall with a fully guaranteed contract, the former Iowa State Cyclone has a clear path to playing time attached to quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Fantasy football doesn’t have to be hard.

C.J. Stroud says he is excited about “pretty much everyone” but singles out Jayden Higgins & Jaylin Noel as people he is very excited for.

“Consistently here at the building or working in the offseason with me so I’m really excited to see those guys growth” pic.twitter.com/z6hWLXNtHx

— Jacob (@TexansJacob) July 23, 2025

While I should stop before another inevitable honorable mention miss, I’d like to throw Tre Harris‘ name in the conversation.

With all the second-round wideouts going outside of the top 50 picks in receiver ADP, I’m confident the two I mentioned will present strong value, with one or two likely finishing as a top-36 option.

Considering all eight of the round two or higher rookie wide receivers drafted this season, there’s a strong chance that more than half will finish as WR3s in their first season. They have combined for fantasy WR3 seasons at a 65% clip.

Presuming that McMillan and Hunter account for two of those top-36 finishes (given the ADP, that is the expectation), you could expect three of the remaining first- and second-rounders to finish inside the top 36 with decent odds.

Considering none of them are drafted close to the top 36 (closest is Matthew Golden at WR45), drafting these rookies is a +EV bet.

Even Travis Hunter. Just based on the 65% top-36 hit rate. He is more likely than not to at least meet expectations as the WR32. But we can all recognize that his ADP is more of a hedge given his vast range of projected outcomes with his defensive/offensive ambiguous projection.

Travis Hunter (WR – JAX)

I said this about Travis Hunter pre-draft:

“I’m going to keep my Hunter value point simple. Upside wins championships. And a WR drafted inside the top-five of the NFL Draft is the definition of upside. Nobody can be quite sure about his usage as a WR/CB, but we don’t know how most rookies will be used on their new teams. Embrace the high-end outcome that a team decided to use Hunter more at WR than CB and reap the rewards. And if not, well, it’s a busted pick in a range where there are plenty of other busted picks that didn’t nearly have as much of a ceiling case as Hunter.”

The price has increased, but not to the point where I think Hunter is completely off limits. However, I do think the best ball versus redraft conversation is real. Trying to make fantasy football start sit decisions with a guy whose role could change drastically week by week is not how I want to spend my Sunday mornings. This could change based on game plan, matchup and availability based on team injuries.

Hunter could be great on offense, but if the Jaguars are down starting cornerbacks because of injuries, he’s probably playing more defense the following week.

Nobody has ever tried to do what Hunter is attempting. As a result, new Jaguars head coach Liam Coen is going to be put in a position to oversee a player’s usage like we have never seen before. Will it be perfect? Probably not. And as much as the Jaguars want to have a plan with Hunter, “everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.”

They can tell us whatever they want now, but it’s probably going to change throughout the season, for better or worse. Again, their No. 1 goal is for Hunter to help them win games, not necessarily score more fantasy points.

#Jaguars HC Liam Coen on whether Travis Hunter will flip between offense and defense in the same practice:

“Yeah, he will, probably within the first six practices or so. You want to give him a couple days offense, a couple days defense, and then give him an opportunity to go… pic.twitter.com/EyLXyYrPeG

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 23, 2025

I think the biggest question fantasy managers need to consider with Hunter is comparing him to the other players in his range.

If you take Hunter, you probably aren’t drafting George Pickens, Jaylen Waddle, Calvin Ridley, RJ Harvey, Jerry Jeudy, Chris Godwin, Patrick Mahomes, Sam LaPorta, Chris Olave, Jauan Jennings, Kaleb Johnson, Rome Odunze, etc.

Some decent names, and the ones I prefer over Hunter (WR32) tend to go ahead of him in ADP.

But this is hardly a group/tier of players that screams you will be burned to a crisp if you pass on one for Hunter. The Colorado product will also probably go even later in more casual home league formats.

As I think more about it, Hunter could truly be the ultimate flip and sell high player during the season.

Alright, rant over. Back to the nerdy stuff.

Round 1 & Round 2 Wide Receivers (Continued)

Drafting rookie wide receivers in 2025 is also very precarious because this class is not particularly strong compared to last season. The top doesn’t have nearly the same amount of high-end talent as the 2024 class. It’s much more comparable to the 2023 class.

That is why it was extremely telling who the NFL deemed worthy to be taken within the first two rounds.

In 2023, eight receivers went in the first two rounds. In 2024, that number increased to 11. In 2025, that dropped to eight again, which was in line with pre-draft expectations. However, more receivers went in round one (four) than the betting markets anticipated, even if Travis Hunter was deemed a defensive back in the eyes of the sportsbooks.

Six wide receivers went inside the top 50, just beating pre-draft expectations.

Jayden Higgins was the most undervalued pre-draft receiver as the WR71. Here are the other notable pre-draft best ball ADPs from those that would go on to become first- or second-round selections.

The depth of the receiver class also beat expectations. Seven receivers were projected as top-70 picks before the draft. Ten were drafted inside the top 70.

There were 10 wide receivers pre-draft last season inside the top 34. Thirteen wideouts had expected draft positions inside the top 64 picks in the 2024 draft class.

Last year, this made drafting rookie receivers an extreme value outside of Marvin Harrison Jr., of course.

Last year’s “Big Three” adjusted quickly to the ADPs: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR10), Malik Nabers (WR23) and Rome Odunze (WR31).

I felt my pre-draft value analysis of them was spot on:

“Harrison’s price tag is out of control, so I’d much rather take Nabers nearly 14 spots lower. But among the big three, Odunze’s the best value with the projection that he will be a top-10 pick. The concern is he falls victim to what happened to Smith-Njigba a season ago – landing on a Bears depth chart with two established WRs already in place. Shane Waldron did this in Seattle last season.”

In a weaker 2023 draft class, all non-Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR30) rookies were selected after WR45.

In 2022, the top six rookie names were in the WR34-WR54 range.

Smith-Njigba’s pre-draft ADP was similar to the pre-draft ADP that Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith held back in 2021.

It was also right in line with Odunze’s from the 2024 draft, despite the Washington product being a pre-draft projected top-10 pick.

Tetairoa McMillan — as the overwhelming favorite to be the WR1 in this year’s class — was going in the same range as Smith-Njigba, Odunze, Drake London and Chris Olave before he was selected eighth overall.

That has caused his ADP to rise inside the top 24 (essentially the same as Nabers from last season). Although some “softer” formats have McMilan outside of the top 24 in ADP, such as Yahoo, Sleeper and ESPN.

Given how Nabers’ season played out as a fellow top-10 pick dropped into an offense with a clear path to targets, I love McMillan at his price in the backend WR2 range/high-end WR3 range.

From a price perspective, there’s a steep drop-off from McMillan and the rest of the receivers in the 2025 draft class.

Akin to the 2023 class headlined by Smith-Njigba, all non-McMillan rookies are being selected at WR45 or later before the draft.

But Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers have been big hits from the class, while Quentin Johnston improved in Year 2. Jalin Hyatt was on the outside looking in that tier and has done nothing since being drafted. But Hyatt was also a third-round pick.

We had more hits than misses (especially when applying the probability based on draft capital).

Post-draft for 2025, the prices have stayed consistent with Matthew Golden and Emeka Egbuka being selected between WR45-WR50.

While I warned against drafting Golden/Egbuka inside the top 50 pre-draft, both earning first-round draft capital puts them as slightly undervalued assets now that the dust has settled.

The average finish for a first-round wide receiver is WR55.

These guys are going where last year’s top second-rounders were selected. Ladd McConkey was a smash, while Keon Coleman fell off dramatically after suffering a wrist injury.

Between Golden and Egbuka, I ultimately side with the Buccaneers wideout. He has a superior body of work at the college level, and the vibes around Chris Godwin haven’t been great. Tampa Bay has been an oasis for fantasy receiver production, whereas Green Bay has been the total opposite. Egbuka might hit the starting lineup sooner rather than later with Godwin trying to come back from his season-ending ankle injury.

The Tampa Bay rookie wide receiver seems like a better bet to make than Golden, who I think is more of a real-life offensive boost for the Packers.

In the worst-case scenario, the former Ohio State Buckeye sits on your bench among a crowded receiver room. But you aren’t tempted to start him. Best case is one of these older Bucs guys goes down, and boom, you have a plug-and-play starter.

At the cost of WR50, I think he’s a solid pick.

But from a value perspective, there are better rookies to target.

Like Jayden Higgins. He is such an easy click to make.

Pre-draft, Higgins was going outside of the top 70 receivers. But he earned 34th overall draft capital with a clear path to immediate playing time on the Houston Texans. His team also handed him a fully guaranteed contract, which was/is rare for a second-round pick.

Higgins’ best ball ADP remains outside the top 50 receivers — a screaming value.

Luther Burden‘s draft stock has plummeted after he missed the majority of the spring with an injury — down to WR58. Until he shows and proves he is healthy, I’m fine skipping past Burden. But once he is healthy and participating in training camp, this is a fine price to pay. Because given the optics of the situation, I don’t think his ADP climbs back to where it was pre-draft (WR46).

Tre Harris recently ended his holdout, putting him in position for the No. 2 WR role for the Chargers. Mike Williams recently retired, and Johnston seems like it’s very much his job to lose.

Harris could potentially push for close to 100 targets, putting him in a dynamite spot to be an immediate contributor. Not to mention, McConkey presents an under-the-radar injury risk after battling through a lot of injuries in college and even last season.

I’ve been asked frequently who I think could be this year’s Brian Thomas Jr. I don’t have a great answer. Usually, it’s just McMillan as my default answer.

But as I think about what led me to the Thomas 18-1 bet for him to lead all rookies in receiving yards, a lot of it was tied to available targets and air yards in the Jaguars’ offense. The Chargers have that. They rank in the top eight in both vacated targets and air yards.

Earning 100 targets is a very encouraging benchmark for a rookie receiver, given that every rookie in the last few years to hit that threshold has drastically exceeded expectations and finished at least in the top four in receiving yards among rookies.

The Chargers’ second-round pick erupted in 2024, leading the FBS in receiving yards through seven weeks and posting a staggering 5.12 yards per route run — the highest in college football with no other wideout going above 4.0.

Moving ADPs

Here are the remaining pre-draft ADPs and post-draft ADPs for other notable rookies. This is also before any training camp movement/buzz.

Risers

Fallers

Jack Bech (WR – LV) & Dont’e Thornton Jr. (WR – LV)

Jack Bech got the second-round draft capital, but fell “victim” to negative spring mini-camp reports.

Meanwhile, Dont’e Thornton Jr. ran with the first team as a perimeter X receiver. Hence, his rise, even though he was drafted in the fourth round.

Thornton averaged nearly 19 yards per target while leading the class in expected points added (EPA) per target. He’s a big-play guy and a size-speed specimen. In 2024, he had 26 catches for 661 yards, but he commanded a microscopic 9% target share in 2024 (35 targets). Thornton also comes from the Tennessee offense, which can be hard to project from college to the pros.

To be honest, Thornton’s profile screams like the guy who is going to look great in organized team activities (OTAs) but ends up running a lot of cardio in the fall. I’m not necessarily going to ride the Thornton steam.

But I do think Bech profiling is closer to a long-term bet than a short-term 2025 bet. There is an overlap in his skill set with Jakobi Meyers. It should also be noted that part of that overlap is versatility. Bech was also reported to look good during the spring, boasting inside/outside flexibility. Whereas Thornton is stuck as an outside receiver and a one-trick pony.

Round 3 Wide Receivers

After we get out of round two, expectations need to change. Because the hit rates from round three and beyond are virtually identical. The crapshoot starts much earlier than most would anticipate.

Last year, I wrote the following:

“Don’t be overly bullish on the Round 3 guys like Malachi Corley, Jermaine Burton, Roman Wilson, Jalen McMillan or Luke McCaffrey.”

Had it not been for McMillan’s touchdown streak to end the season, this would have been a clean sweep.

Similar to the running back position, there tends to be a drastic fall from round two to round three. Just four of 45 third-round wide receivers have finished in the top 36 since 2013, including one hit over the past four seasons — Tank Dell as the WR37. He likely would have easily surpassed this rank had it not been for the injuries.

In 2023, I fell hook, line and sinker for the third-round Tennessee receivers and got burned. However, I vowed that it wouldn’t dissuade me from trying to find the next Tank Dell. My target was Jermaine Burton. However, off-field issues proved too much. It was the reason why he fell in the draft, and likely the reason he was a non-factor as a rookie.

It’s a word of caution to tread lightly around paying up for third-round wideouts who are being vaulted up boards based on their draft capital. The track record speaks for itself.

However, if I had to push my chips on someone this year, while also considering price, it would be Houston’s Jaylin Noel. Unlike most of the other third-rounders, he has stayed very cheap. I’ve yet to hear anything negative about Noel, and that goes beyond what my colleague Derek Brown has constantly raved about him.

Noel still has solid round three draft capital and landed in a spot attached to Stroud. Yes, Christian Kirk is still there, but he has landed on the injured reserve (IR) in the last two seasons.

The 5-foot-10 and 194-pound wideout produced at an extremely high level despite sharing the field with fellow 2025 draft prospect Jayden Higgins the last two seasons, and produced a 33% dominator rating in his final season.

Noel also tested off the charts at the NFL Scouting Combine and is ready-made to produce from the slot at the next level. He finished second in the class in total air yards as a vertical downfield threat and first in yards on passes thrown 20+ yards in the air.

As I alluded to in the intro, there’s strong evidence that some of these round two/round three receivers in the WR60-WR75 range (Jack Bech, Kyle Williams, Pat Bryant) are extremely overvalued. If I had to pick one to “buck” the trend, it would be Williams. But you are paying a hefty price for both in best ball drafts.

Last season was a better wide receiver class. We were drafting Ja’Lynn Polk, Ricky Pearsall and Xavier Legette in an eerily similar range. And they all had strong draft capital last season. They didn’t exactly hit, but now drafters are pushing weaker rookie prospects up the board.

All in all, it’s best to temper expectations with this rookie class. Don’t overpursue. There’s a reason why the veteran market was so lucrative this offseason.

NFL teams know this isn’t a strong class. And if your “favorite” receiver in this class didn’t go in the first two rounds, you are climbing an uphill battle for Year 1 production. Tread lightly.

Systematically speaking, that suggests Williams and Bryant are horrendous picks. Specifically with Bryant, I feel like his coach comparing him to Michael Thomas is the only thing driving up his ADP.

The Illinois product was ranked as a much lower prospect pre-draft, and the track record of “large reaches” in the middle rounds is not great. Bryant ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 204 pounds and had a later breakout at the age of 20. It took him until his final season to hit 984 receiving yards with 10 touchdowns on 54 receptions.

Rookie third-round receivers hardly hit anyway, so consider me skeptical that Bryant is truly Payton’s “next Michael Thomas.” The 6-foot-3 and 200-pound receiver had one college game over his four-year career with double-digit targets. This past season, Bryant was out-targeted by Zakhari Franklin, who went undrafted (signed with the Raiders).

Despite my general optimism for Kyle Williams on the Patriots, the facts are the facts. The top guys rarely slip out of the first two rounds. In a weaker class, I’d bet this is compounded.

Dial in on the rookies with first-round or second-round draft capital and reap the rewards, especially in the late rounds. Grabbing these late-round receivers allows you to stockpile running backs, quarterbacks and tight ends earlier.

This will be a great year for Zero RB and Hero RB drafters.

Rounds 4-7 Rookie Wide Receivers

Outside of the top 100 picks, it’s better to ignore the majority of receivers taken in rounds four or later. There have been 35 wide receivers drafted in the fourth round from 2013-2020. Not a single one finished as a top-50 wide receiver in their rookie year.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only fourth-rounder to buck the trend since 2013. The Lions’ rookie wide receiver was the extreme outlier in this category in 2021, finishing as the WR21.

It was more of the same in 2024, with fourth-round rookies Javon Baker, Troy Franklin, Devontez Walker and Jacob Cowing doing next to nothing. This followed up on a 2023 season that featured the likes of Derius Davis, Tyler Scott and Charlie Jones.

The primary takeaway is to go aggressively after wide receivers with round one or round two draft capital, but be extremely wary of those that go round three or later. St. Brown’s blazing 2021 season is not the norm; fantasy managers should not chase the possibility because it will not be easily replicated.

And neither is Puka Nacua‘s unprecedented ascension to WR1 status in 2023. Jalen Coker was the biggest hit among Day 3 or later receivers drafted (or undrafted in Coker’s case) in 2024.

Still, it doesn’t mean that we can’t “try” and find a diamond in the rough. I mentioned Nacua in this article two years ago, but I was not bullish enough. I also planted my flag on Kayshon Boutte. Yikes.

In my attempt last year to identify the right Day 3 receivers, it was more strikeouts. Javon Baker, Troy Franklin, Malik Washington, Jacob Cowing and Ainias Smith. Woof.

In a sense, nobody besides John Brown and Martavis Bryant has truly slipped through the cracks as picks outside of the first two rounds of the NFL Draft.

With everybody on a quest to find “this year’s Puka Nacua,” I know it drives clicks, but the best rookie who provides the biggest edge in fantasy football will likely come from the first two rounds. Look for those values first.

That said, you came to read about which Day 3 wideouts could emerge from the fold. Here’s a quick debrief of potential players to target.

Rookie Wide Receiver Dart Throws

Elic Ayomanor fell after being selected in the fourth round. Pre-draft, it was the common belief that the Stanford wideout would be a Day 2 selection.

There are not a lot of established pass-catchers on the Titans’ offense other than Calvin Ridley, so one could presume that either Ayomanor, Chimere Dike, or Xavier Restrepo could emerge as Cam Ward‘s go-to target. But given it’s a toss-up between three different rookies (one of whom played with Ward at Miami), paying the premium for Ayomanor seems like malpractice. We want more news about who is highest on the depth chart entering the season.

I agree with the market that Ayomanor should be the first Titans rookie receiver selected, even though the team drafted Dike first.

The other receivers that were projected to be on the round three cusp before the draft included: Jalen Royals, Xavier Restrepo, Kyle Williams, Tez Johnson, Isaiah Bond and Savion Williams.

Kyle Williams and Savion Williams went in round three, with Isaac TeSlaa being a major shock as a Day 2 pick. Pat Bryant was also a bit of a surprise to earn Day 2 draft capital.

Tai Felton was selected with the last pick in the third round (102 overall). He finished second among receivers in this class in total targets last season (149) and had a 31% target share. Even so, it seems like he is firmly a long-term play behind veteran Jalen Nailor (contract year).

In the pre-draft version of this article, I bet against Restrepo, Johnson and Bond earning Day 2 draft capital. Johnson has major size concerns. Restrepo’s draft stock has fallen this offseason and he didn’t have the greatest Senior Bowl. He also ran a 4.8 40-yard dash on his Pro Day. Bond is super talented, but he had a laundry list of off-the-field concerns that could inevitably push him down draft boards.

I was more confident betting on the TCU receivers and Royals to be third-round selections. The TCU guys came through, with Royals “just” slipping into round four to the Kansas City Chiefs. Although he might have new found opportunity early in the season with the Rashee Rice pending suspension.

Jordan Watkins was the last pick in the fourth round (compensatory pick) and looks like he might get more early-season opportunities than most would expect. The state of the current 49ers WR room is in disarray, with injuries all over the place.

Jaylin Lane (WR – WSH)

One of my favorite rookies in this class is Jaylin Lane. I have heavy exposure to him in Fast Draft’s Origins rookie-only best ball contest.

The Commanders selected Lane in the fourth round of this year’s draft (128th overall) presumably to be the team’s starting punt returner. But given the lack of depth behind Terry McLaurin (holding out for a new contract) and Deebo Samuel (on a one-year deal with a long injury track record), Lane could earn the starting slot role in Washington’s offense with the team not smitten with last year’s third-round pick, Luke McCaffrey.

The 5-foot-10, 191-pound Lane is a supreme athlete and dynamic playmaker with the ball in his hands, finishing fourth in the class in yards after the catch per reception (8.5). He finished in the top 25 in his conference in career punt return yards and has over 100 career punt/kick-off returns on his resume.

According to NFL.com, Jaylin Noel and Lane both jumped at least 11 inches in the broad jump and at least 40 inches in the vertical jump, while also running a sub-4.4 40-yard dash, making them just two out of eight wide receivers to meet all three criteria since 2003.

Lane led his team in receptions the past two seasons despite playing alongside another NFL-caliber wide receiver. He was fourth in the class in yards after the catch per reception (8.5).

KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR – LAC)

My other favorite Day 3 rookie wideout in this class is KeAndre Lambert-Smith. He had a 31% dominator rating during his senior year — 50-981-8 — after spending four years at Penn State. At Auburn, Lambert-Smith was a top-five receiver this year at the Power 5 level in yards per route run, 20+ yard catches and yards per reception, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Not quite often do you see a relatively unproven player make the jump to the SEC and immediately produce, but that’s how things shook out for Lambert-Smith. The 6-foot-1 and 190-pound receiver finished in the top five in the SEC in total receiving yards, averaging nearly 20 yards per reception. Suggesting he didn’t produce at Penn State probably isn’t fair.

Lambert-Smith led the Nittany Lions in receiving yards in 2023, topping future NFL tight ends Tyler Warren and Theo Johnson. Lambert-Smith was also posting decent numbers back in 2021, despite being the youngest in an offense littered with NFL talents. Therefore, take Lambert-Smith’s breakout age with a grain of salt. His teammate competition was elite.

Combine that with his strong testing, 4.37 40-yard dash, and Lambert-Smith seems like he is being supremely slept on in this rookie class. Drafted in the fifth round by the Chargers after turning heads at the Shrine Bowl, Lambert-Smith lands in a favorable spot as a downfield weapon for Justin Herbert.

And so far through the early portions of training camp, Lambert-Smith is confirming all my priors. Isn’t that what training camp is for?

Chargers rookie WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith has stepped up in a big way as one of the few standouts in the early stages of training camp. https://t.co/eUz52hVPCb pic.twitter.com/2Qmi6n6o93

— Chargers Wire (@TheChargersWire) July 24, 2025

Honorable Day 3/undrafted mentions include Tory Horton and Efton Chism III. If you want a deeper dive on some of the less-discussed receivers from this year’s class, check out my dynasty piece from earlier this offseason.

How to Value Rookie Tight Ends in Fantasy Football

There was once a time when you could always look the other way in redraft leagues when it came to rookie tight ends. Kyle Pitts from four years ago looked like the lone exception to the general rule of thumb. He was used more like a wide receiver in the Atlanta Falcons’ offense, which is why he found success as the TE7 overall in his first season. He is also just a unicorn, and no standard rookie tight ends should be compared to him. But give credit to Matt Ryan, who is no stranger to fueling fantasy success.

At the time, Pitts joined Evan Engram as the only rookie tight end to finish as a top-12 option since 2022. Although Pat Freiermuth came close in 2021, finishing 2021 as the TE13 thanks to seven receiving touchdowns. The Penn State product is also the first rookie tight end selected in the second round to finish as a top-18 option since 2013.

I am burying the lede here, of course, because 2023 brought us an elite rookie tight end and the overall fantasy TE1 in Sam LaPorta. Fellow rookie Dalton Kincaid also finished as a TE1 (TE12). We have now had four rookie tight ends finish inside the top 12 as rookies. And they all played with good quarterbacks.

Part of the reason why highly drafted rookie tight ends have failed is that they go to bad teams with bad quarterbacks.

Tucker Kraft was also productive at TE28, as was rookie teammate Luke Musgrave (TE31). Michael Mayer was the TE33 to round out a beyond-productive tight-end rookie class.

We were presented with another elite rookie tight end last season in Brock Bowers. Despite shaky quarterback play, he finished as the fantasy TE2 overall through 17 weeks.

Rookie Tight Ends Since 2013

That said, Bowers was drafted as an elite tight end prospect at 13th overall — the highest tight end drafted since Pitts (fourth overall) and T.J. Hockenson (eighth overall).

A rookie tight end needs strong draft capital to produce in Year 1. The best-performing rookie tight end in 2022 was Chigoziem Okonkwo as a fifth-rounder. That is not the norm.

Simply put, a first-year tight end almost always needs to be drafted in round one for hopes of fantasy relevance in Year 1 with a respectable 74 target average (TE16 last season). Round two is much tougher to get behind for any tight end historically, at least before the 2023 season.

Last season, Bowers’ strong projected draft capital was a reason to be “in” on him. He was the TE9 as a sure-fire lock to be a high first-rounder and the No. 1 overall tight end selected. The Georgia product was not being slept on in any capacity compared to last year’s first-round projected tight ends between Mayer (TE21) and Kincaid (TE25). Bowers was drafted as a locked-in fantasy TE1 and surpassed all expectations despite a poor landing spot.

Tyler Warren (TE – IND)

Fast forward to this season, and Penn State’s Tyler Warren had a strikingly similar ADP to Bowers — TE9 in early best ball ADP. Interesting.

After the Colts selected Warren 14th overall, his ADP dipped slightly to the TE11, and well outside the top 100 overall picks. Warren is a super versatile rookie tight end that Colts head coach Shane Steichen could be super creative with. Both Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard acknowledged Warren’s “Swiss Army” knife skillset.

Even though Warren took some time to break out at Penn State (Penn State’s roster was littered with NFL talent, specifically at tight end, with Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson), he went nuclear in his final year with a 30% dominator rating.

Once he got his opportunities, he couldn’t be stopped. Warren took over as Penn State’s No. 1 TE and put up one of the best seasons ever for a Big Ten tight end — 104 receptions for 1,230 yards and eight touchdowns. He set Big Ten records for most catches and most receiving yards by a tight end in a single season.

Warren tied a college football record for tight ends with 17 receptions in a game against USC. He also won the John Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end — the first ever in Penn State history. Warren also rushed for 218 yards and four touchdowns, and even threw a passing touchdown (he played quarterback in high school). He’s 23 years old and scored 20 total touchdowns the past two seasons.

Warren’s path to TE1 status could be through touchdowns in 2025, especially if the Colts use him closer to the red zone. He is a straight-up alpha and plays in an offense that maybe lacks a true alpha. I don’t want to discredit Michael Pittman Jr. for his past accolades, especially gutting out last year with the back injury, but there’s a lot of competition in this passing attack.

As I reflect on the NFL Draft coverage I absorbed pre-draft, Warren was always labeled as a straight-up alpha and would hit the ground running more so than Colston Loveland. Maybe that’s partially injury-related, but I don’t think it’s crazy to think the more experienced player will acclimate quicker to the NFL. Warren nearly tripled Loveland’s snaps in 2024.

“No rookie wall for Warren.”

Naturally, I think Warren is the dark horse bet to be the third straight rookie tight end to finish in the top three at the position in 2025, following in the footsteps of Brock Bowers and Sam LaPorta. Even a Kyle Pitts, Pat Freiermuth or Dalton Kincaid rookie season (mid to low-end TE1) is well within reach. The last three highest drafted tight ends have all been fantasy TE1s in Year 1 (Bowers, LaPorta, Kincaid).

Colston Loveland (TE – CHI)

Pre-draft, I much preferred Michigan’s Colston Loveland, who was mostly projected to be this year’s second tight end drafted. But some NFL teams had Loveland as their TE1 in the class, and that ended up being the case, as the Chicago Bears selected him with the 10th overall pick.

Loveland is currently the TE13 in ADP (an increase of one to two spots from his pre-draft ADP). I think his game is more similar to Bowers than Warren. Loveland experienced a breakout season at 19 years old in 2023, leading Michigan’s offense with a massive 38% dominator rating, despite battling injuries.

Loveland finished with 56 receptions for 582 yards (10.4 yards per reception) and five touchdowns, leading the team in targets by 45 more than the next closest player. For the second straight season, the Michigan tight end ranked inside the top five in yards per route run (2.67) among TEs.

The Michigan tight end declared early for the 2025 NFL Draft, foregoing his senior year. He earned elite draft capital as the first tight end drafted (10th overall). Loveland has battled a shoulder injury that has caused him to miss time so far this offseason, but he’s full-go by all accounts for the early start of Bears training camp.

I think Loveland might be the better long-term bet over Warren, but in Year 1, the Colts tight end might have the slight upper hand. Not exactly a 1-for-1 comparison, but Greg Dulcich out-produced Trey McBride in Year 1. That didn’t last.

Ultimately, I think in either situation, we are going to need to see elevated quarterback play for Warren/Loveland to hit right away. The Colts/Bears have hardly super-established passing games in place, but the paths for improvement are not hard to see in 2025. The upside quarterback play seems much more likely to happen in Chicago than in Indianapolis.

All in all, I am trying to learn from my mistake last season of not being high enough on Bowers.

Both of these first-round tight ends are cheaper than Bowers was last season. And they are probably just normal/streamer fantasy tight ends in the scenarios where they don’t hit. But if they do, you are capturing a boatload of upside you should be aiming for at tight end.

Chase the upside and draft these two heavily discounted first-round tight ends. The fact that they are both going after the middle tier of tight ends (typically bad bets to make at the position) justifies waiting on the position to grab one.

While I prefer Warren slightly for 2025, I think Loveland’s path could become clearer than most think. Chicago’s receivers and tight ends stayed very healthy last season. If that injury luck regresses in 2025, watch the target floodgates open up for the talented Bears rookie tight end.

If you waited in your fantasy draft and selected both Warren/Loveland, odds are pretty strong you’ll come away with a fantasy TE1.

Day 2 Tight Ends

After the top two guys, we have another tier between Elijah Arroyo (TE35), Mason Taylor (TE39) and Terrance Ferguson (TE43), as the remaining second-round tight ends selected.

We already have much more depth than last year’s class, which only saw one tight end selected in round two (Ben Sinnott). Sinnott was the TE24 last season, which felt appropriate based on the track records of tight ends. He didn’t hit thanks to Zach Ertz, but I don’t think his price was egregious.

Arroyo, Taylor and Fannin were are all projected to be second-to-third-round picks pre-draft. Ferguson’s draft capital was the most surprising versus the pre-draft market, but his commanding round two draft capital wasn’t too shocking based on how he tested at the NFL Scouting Combine. Ferguson also finished first in the nation in yards after the catch per reception (9.0) in 2024. Sorting out his deployment in Los Angeles for Year 1 is a bit tricky. Very possible he follows the Trey McBride path as Tyler Higbee closes out his career in Los Angeles.

Pre-draft, all of these tight ends were great values just based on their Day 2 draft capital. In 2024, Ja’Tavion Sanders was going as the TE25 before falling to Day 3 of the NFL Draft. Post-draft, he was the TE29. That’s cheaper than some second-round tight ends from this year’s class.

Twenty-seven percent of round two tight ends finish as top-24 options, so expect at least one of the three to be fantasy-relevant in Year 1.

Round 2 ADPs

The new prices are as follows:

Rounds 3-5 ADPs

The new prices are as follows:

Elijah Arroyo was my favorite pre-draft, and I remained high on him after the Seahawks selected him 50th overall as the fifth tight end off the board. Arroyo was second in the nation in yards after the catch per reception (8.9) despite the seventh-highest average depth of target (aDOT) — 11.1. He averaged nearly 17 yards per catch, by far the most of any tight end in college football.

With veteran tight end Noah Fant removed from the picture, Arroyo has a path to push for the No. 2 receiving role in Seattle. With New Orleans last season, Klint Kubiak’s offense ranked sixth in target share to tight ends (28%). The Saints’ two top tight ends posted aDOTs north of 8.0 yards (Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson).

Mason Taylor was rumored to be the third tight end drafted (also generating late-first-round buzz) for the high floor he could offer an NFL franchise. It’s easy to see him carve out an every-down role with the New York Jets, given their sheer lack of receiver talent behind Garrett Wilson. However, I do feel like Taylor’s ceiling might be capped in Year 1, given how run-heavy the Jets project to be.

Harold Fannin Jr. was the TE30 pre-draft, falling to the 67th pick (third pick in round three). He is now the TE39 in ADP, identical to Theo Johnson‘s ADP from a season ago. It was also close to Bengals tight end, Erick All (TE40). Both of those tight ends had moments as fourth-rounders before they missed time with injuries.

This suggests Fannin (high-end third-rounder) is being potentially undervalued. Oronde Gadsden has also generated solid hype from Chargers camp and brings a receiving profile that could help him stand out in the Bolts’ tight end room. Gadsden has deep NFL bloodlines related to his father, Oronde Gadsden Sr., but it almost goes beyond that.

PFF highlighted Gadsden’s high school practices featuring him against the likes of Patrick Surtain and Tyson Campbell. He also sought help from Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson.

Also, as I love to point out, there’s an interesting coaching pairing with Andy Bischoff. He’s the Chargers’ tight ends coach. He was with Baltimore when they had Darren Waller and reunited with Waller in New York with the Giants. Bischoff coached Mark Andrews as a rookie in Baltimore, Martellus Bennett in Chicago and Brevin Jordan in Houston.

2025 Rookie TE’s to average 2.00+ YPRR for their collegiate career:

– Colston Loveland (2.22)
– Harold Fannin Jr. (2.99)
– Oronde Gadsden II (2.04) ????

Pay attention to the hype Gadsden’s getting. pic.twitter.com/TO4Y81pWkK

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) June 12, 2025

Keep in mind that the 2025 rookie tight end class was constantly praised. Don’t let the strong running back class distract from the fact that we should expect big things from this year’s rookie crop of tight ends, especially compared to the receivers.

The second-round tight ends between Ferguson and Taylor feel a bit pricy. Therefore, gravitate toward Arroyo as the second-rounder who makes the big impact in Year 1. Odds are that only one of these second-rounders will be a top-24 option, and take fliers on Fannin/Gadsden in the TE40 range.

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