With training camp in full swing and draft season right around the corner, let’s look at some bargains based on July-only ADP through July 24. I’m focusing on overall ADP, but I also note positional ADP, as that’s much more relevant regardless of your league’s format.
I’ve ignored the first three rounds because I want everyone to have a shot at all these players, no matter where they pick. I’ve also included their position ADP in my 2025 rankings, which are obviously significantly higher in all cases. I’m looking for bargains based on the round these players are being drafted.
Round 4
George Kittle (No. 43 overall, TE3, TE1 in my rankings)
He’s playing this year without Deebo Samuel and probably without Brandon Aiyuk (ACL) for at least the start of the year. He’s the team’s No. 1 receiver. Let’s look at Kittle’s stats without either Samuel or Aiyuk on the field for the past three years:
- 147 targets
- 11.9 yards per target (absurdly good) with 16 TDs, or one every 9.2 targets
- 23.1% target rate with 78% receptions per target
If we expect 500 Niners targets (very conservative), Kittle’s share projects to 115. If we give him his average stats without Samuel or Aiyuk in the lineup, I get 90 catches for 1,368 yards with 12 TDs.
Davante Adams (37, WR18, my WR15)
Puka Nacua ran 239 routes with Cooper Kupp, and his target rate was 38% compared to 24% for Kupp. Adams is better than Kupp, who was hobbled last year by an ankle injury, so I expect a target rate of about 25-30% for Adams. Nacua was one of the lowest-targeted WRs in the red zone at just 16%. Expect Adams to dominate that area of the field. Adams was down less than a mile per hour in his top speed in 2024 vs. 2021 — faster than Nacua. In 2024, with the Jets, Adams was 50% better in expected YAC based on the radar than in 2021. We can’t predict the future, but Adams showed no signs of age-based decline in 2024.
Round 5
Joe Mixon (56, RB20, my RB12)
He was third in the NFL with 80% of team rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line — even with three missed games. I figured Mixon would be a volume play last year, and he was, but his efficiency was decent, at least to start. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry in his first 205 totes and then 3.2 in his final 40. In the playoffs, he was great — 194 yards on 43 carries (4.5) with a pair of TDs. He’s playing 2025 at age 29, and that’s post-cliff for the generic RB. So, of course, there is risk here, but you’re being paid to take it.
Round 6
Travis Hunter (69, WR35, my WR20)
Always bet against the market when it’s sure on something unknowable — in this case, how much Hunter will be used on offense. No matter what the reports say, people will tether their ranking to their belief that he’s a true two-way player with an expected 50% of WR snaps. But I think Hunter’s snap rate on offense will be at least the top-50 average for WRs last year (92%), with maybe 8% of defensive snaps in high-leverage, obvious passing situations. I think he’ll finish as a top-15 receiver. But I’m ranking him conservatively at WR20 and want to pay close to ADP, which I expect will rise to at least WR25 by draft day with camp news. Jameson Williams had 79% snaps in the games he played, and if Hunter doesn’t match that, I’ll eat a bug.
Round 7
Jauan Jennings (75, WR38, my WR23)
In his 10 starts, Jennings produced a 59-767-6 line over 17 games, which works out to 100-1,304-10. Jennings is not slow (average for a WR) and is great on contested routes (10-for-17 on tight-window throws). Yes, he was 68th in separation according to the radar, right behind Allen Lazard. But separation seems like it should mean a lot, but it doesn’t. You are wide open if you’re open by his average of 2.5 yards. Who cares where that ranks?
Jakobi Meyers (76, WR39, my WR25)
We don’t view Meyers as a No. 1 WR on the Raiders because their tight end is viewed that way. But when they were both on the field, Meyers had 113 targets (with over 400 more air yards), and Brock Bowers had 120. Also, Geno Smith likes throwing to outside receivers and hasn’t really utilized the TE much. After Week 7, when he returned from injury and Adams was gone, Meyers’ target rate was 24.5%. To reach 150 targets, you need 27.2% for 550 pass attempts or 23.6% with last year’s 635 attempts. I project between 130 and 150 targets for Meyers. I get that no one is close to me regarding his ranking, but I believe in the numbers.
Round 8 or 9
Jordan Mason (98, RB33, my RB29)
I’m fading 31-year-old RB Aaron Jones. Back of the napkin numbers show that 24 RBs have had 200+ carries this century at age 30. At age 31, that drops to 17. So let’s call that a 30% age-related collapse risk. The Vikings ran the ball 390 times with their RBs last year, so that leaves, at worst, 150 for Mason, with the likelihood of most of the goal-line work, since Jones is bad there (3-for-10 on goal-line runs — average is 44%). And that’s with Jones staying healthy and productive at age 31 after playing all 17 games at age 30. Mason is the 22nd-highest paid RB in the NFL, which tells me the Minnesota plan is a full-blown 50/50 timeshare.
(Photo of Davante Adams: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)
