BEST HR PROP BETS, PICKS, PARLAY & ODDS FOR MONDAY, JULY 28

Dylan Cease can’t keep the ball in the park lately, and our daily home run picks believe Francisco Lindor will be licking his chops ahead of this matchup.

Jul 28, 2025 • 10:52 ET

• 4 min read

My MLB player props analysis for Monday, July 28 will highlight the chances of Yandy Diaz and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. going deep in the early evening window. 

I’m also recommending a late-night home run bet on Francisco Lindor.

Best MLB home run props today

• Diaz (+475)
• Guerrero Jr. (+425)
• Lindor (+370)
• 💲 +14088 parlay💲

HR picks for July 28

Yandy Diaz (+475 at DraftKings)

Yandy Diaz is on fire right now for the Tampa Bay Rays. Maybe he’s not banging out hits every game, but the slugger is certainly finding his power stroke. Diaz has 18 bombs overall on the year and he’s left the yard four times in his last nine contests. 

The 33-year-old went deep on Saturday against the Cincinnati Reds and previously smacked a HR last Wednesday versus the Chicago White Sox. Tampa will face the New York Yankees tonight, who send Cam Schlitter to the hill. In two big league outings so far, he’s allowed two round-trippers. 

Diaz has 11 bombs off right-handed hurlers. Although he has just four home runs on the road, the recent trends suggest he could hit No. 19 sooner rather than later. It could be this evening against an inexperienced arm. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+425 at DraftKings)

Sure, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s power numbers are down. He’s smacked just 14 long balls so far, but the first baseman is still a crucial piece for the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays, hitting .292. 

We all know he still has big-time power, too. Guerrero Jr. showed it on Saturday against the Detroit Tigers, connecting on a long shot to left field to give the Jays insurance. 

Guerrero Jr. will face Orioles right-hander Zach Eflin tonight, who is making just his second start since returning from the IL. He’s had a lot of success against him before, going deep two times. Ten of Guerrero’s homers are off right-handed pitchers.

Eflin has also had serious trouble with keeping opponents in the ballpark. He’s allowed 16 home runs in just 13 outings this season. Guerrero Jr. could add to his misery in the series opener here. 

Francisco Lindor (+370 at DraftKings)

Francisco Lindor is one of the most consistent all-around players in the sport. He’s hitting .249 this season with 20 home runs and 59 RBI. 

The San Diego Padres throw Dylan Cease at the New York Mets tonight, which is going to have Lindor excited. He’s 4-for-12 lifetime with three round-trippers and five RBI. 

The shortstop has left the yard four times already in July and he’s smacked 16 bombs off righties. Cease isn’t having a very good season either, allowing 16 home runs in 21 appearances. He’s surrendered six long balls in just four starts this month. 

Lindor also has six hits in his last four contests. None of them were homers, but he’s heating up. Given Cease’s HR troubles, it wouldn’t surprise me if Lindor made the right-hander pay in a big way in the series opener. 

Today’s HR parlay

Yandy Diaz home run

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. home run

Francisco Lindor home run

Today’s most popular HR bets

1. Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
2. Eugenio Suarez, Diamondbacks
3. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers

Betting info courtesy of DraftKings

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