The American League MVP has been Aaron Judge’s to lose for pretty much the entire 2025 season. However, when he landed on the injured list over the weekend, the odds flipped in Cal Raleigh’s favor for the first time all year.
Judge, who has already won MVP in 2022 and 2024, leads all of baseball in every major slash category (.342 batting average, .449 on-base percentage, .711 slugging percentage and a comical 1.160 OPS). He’s also second in the AL in home runs (37) and RBIs (85). Those stats may not be enough if Judge misses significant time with a flexor strain in his right elbow. He is expected to return this season, and there is even some optimism he will be able to return as soon as the minimum 10-day stint on the IL passes, but nothing is yet confirmed.
The uncertainty around Judge’s time on the IL, plus any doubts about how he will perform when he comes back, have shaken up the odds to win AL MVP. Raleigh, who is already ahead of Judge in homers and RBIs, is now favored to win the award in what would be one of the better stories surrounding an MVP in some time.
Raleigh, age 28, entered this season without any standout numbers. His career-best OPS was a modest .774 in 2022. He has a more relatable 6-foot-2, 235-pound physique compared to Judge’s chiseled 6-foot-7 frame. Raleigh wasn’t a nobody entering this season; he won a Gold Glove at catcher last season and had some notoriety around his Big Dumper nickname. But at the start of the season, it still would’ve seemed unfathomable that he could be a legitimate challenger to Judge in a year that Judge is putting up normal Aaron Judge numbers and the Yankees are in a good position to make the playoffs.
Yet, here we are in the final couple months of the regular season, with Raleigh favored for the AL MVP with -135 odds on BetMGM. Judge is still firmly in the mix at +105, but if this injury lingers, the award becomes Raleigh’s to lose. Judge was -650 a week ago, and was -1000 earlier in the season. Raleigh remained competitive in the counting stats, and the Mariners are also in the middle of the playoff race, just a game and a half behind the Yankees.
AL MVP odds
As of Monday morning, Raleigh has received 28.6 percent of the money in BetMGM’s AL MVP market, leading the way. Judge is at 23.9 percent, although it seems plausible that number will increase if bettors are willing to take a chance on a quick recovery. Even on the injured list, Judge at plus money is likely a more appealing bet than a healthy Judge with very short odds.
There is no other realistic contender right now. Tarik Skubal is third in the AL MVP odds at a whopping +4000. Skubal is the runaway Cy Young favorite at -450, but pitchers don’t win MVP awards often. It’s Judge vs. Raleigh, and Judge is on the shelf. It’s hard to imagine a guy with the nickname Big Dumper as David going up against Goliath, even if Judge absolutely fits the description of Goliath, but this would be a massive upset. Raleigh was 100-to-1 to win AL MVP at the start of the season.
Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the game’s biggest stars, and Ohtani is -2000 to win NL MVP. To have someone usurp even one half of that duopoly would make for quite the story — one that people who bet on Raleigh at long odds likely won’t stop telling any time soon.
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(Photo of Cal Raleigh: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
