The death of free agency is upon us, so says the NBA’s national conversation. But whether that demise exists or free agency is merely on a hiatus, inside is a smaller change.
Signing players is now closer to speed dating than a committed relationship. NBA teams no longer want to give out long-term money, an effect of the league’s current economic environment.
Josh Giddey, one of four restricted free agents still lingering on the open market, could buck the trend.
The Athletic recently polled 16 people who work in NBA front offices (including no one from Giddey’s incumbent Chicago Bulls), asking what they would deem a “fair” contract for each member of the restricted quartet: Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga, Quentin Grimes and Cam Thomas. They were granted anonymity in exchange for their candor.
The results of the Kuminga poll were published Friday. Now it is on to Giddey, the 22-year-old point guard whom executives were willing to give four or five years.
Of the four remaining restricted players, Giddey inspired the most consistent contract suggestions. Respondents were most comfortable giving him money. Fourteen of the 16 participants proposed an average annual salary between $20 million and $25 million. (His mean average annual value in the poll came to $22.3 million a year.) One executive pinned him as an $18 million player. Another, a front-office staffer who admitted he would be far lower than the consensus because he wasn’t a fan of Giddey’s game, suggested $50 million over four years, $12.5 million a year — less than the midlevel exception for a player who put up 14.6 points, 8.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists in 2024-25 and who averaged nearly a 20-point triple-double over his final 19 games.
But even with Giddey’s biggest detractor in the poll, ignore the money. Instead, focus on the years.
Four.
That’s rare nowadays.
Seventy-eight free agents have signed contracts this offseason, as of this past weekend. Only three of them — the Milwaukee Bucks’ Myles Turner, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Sam Merrill and the Atlanta Hawks’ Nickeil Alexander-Walker — received at least four guaranteed seasons. For reference, 13 free agents signed four- or five-year contracts last summer.
Front offices worry about cresting above the first or second apron in today’s financial environment. Surpassing either payroll threshold can paralyze a team’s optionality. Meanwhile, the NBA’s recent salary-cap projection for 2026-27, which includes only a 7 percent raise instead of the 10 percent raise many around the league expected, “probably spooked teams,” one executive who participated in the poll said.
“If you’re offering a four-year contract, you have to be correct,” said one executive, who then cut himself off. “But Giddey, you could offer a four-year deal.”
The executive was one of four respondents who deemed $100 million over four years as fair for Giddey.
“Giddey is the anomaly because he might be good enough to be a four-year player,” the executive said. “Nobody wants to go with long-term contracts because everybody wants this idea of flexibility. You wanna have the ability to (say), ‘You know what? My team’s not very good. Let’s pivot.’”
Josh Giddey averaged nearly a 20-point triple-double in his final 19 games with the Chicago Bulls this past season. (Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
The majority of those polled agreed that Giddey was worth a commitment. Seven of the 16 participants proposed four-year deals for him: one for $50 million, one for $80 million, one for $88 million and four for $100 million.
Three more respondents suggested five-year contracts: one for $112.5 million, one for $115 million and the largest one (both in money and in average annual value) for $125 million.
Selected with the No. 6 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, Giddey was once a coveted part of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s supercharged rebuild. There, he showed flashes as a 6-foot-8 floor general and creative passer. Despite off-court controversy early in the 2023-24 campaign, Giddey started all but two of his appearances for a team that proved to be a season, and a couple offseason acquisitions, away from an NBA title.
Giddey, a 33.7 percent 3-point shooter that season, was slotted as a below-average defender on a defensive juggernaut and was pulled from the starting lineup late in Oklahoma City’s 2024 playoff run. Thunder general manager Sam Presti continued to value Giddey’s tools, aiming for his return in an altered role that summer. But Giddey, entering a contract year, made it apparent that his ambitions would lead to divorce. He wanted to start — and he would have to do so elsewhere.
Presti agreed to swap Giddey for all-defensive guard Alex Caruso, giving the latter a role with a contender and Giddey the keys to a franchise.
Particularly down the stretch of this past season, Giddey excelled. And yet, he remains unsigned — in part because cap space around the league has dried up, removing any hopes of leverage, and in part because Giddey is a restricted free agent, meaning the Bulls could match any offer sheet he signed with another team to bring him back for the same price. It makes rival organizations less likely to waste their time chasing him.
One executive proposed a three-year contract for Giddey but with a team option, a move that would sustain flexibility for the Bulls. Five other executives suggested three guaranteed years for Giddey. The executive lowest on him proposed $54 million. Every other three-year contract was within the same range: $60 million, $66 million, $67.5 million and two for $75 million.
But even inside an unfriendly market, Giddey has reason to negotiate for more.
Once the Bulls dealt Zach LaVine to the Sacramento Kings in February, Giddey received more wiggle room in an offense catered to his usage. After the trade deadline, he shot 45.7 percent from deep on marginally increased attempts. His free-throw rate also spiked, as he averaged 5.8 attempts per game (up from 2.2 before Feb. 20). If nothing else, Giddey was granted comfort — and with that, it seems, some level of ownership over the Bulls’ offensive direction.
Giddey can use the Bulls’ past actions against them, too, specifically the contract they handed to former No. 4 draft pick Patrick Williams, who was in a similar situation last summer.
“Chicago gave (Williams) five years, $90 million with a player option,” one executive said. “He didn’t show much and got that deal entirely based on them drafting him top five and (his) perceived potential.”
Giddey was also a lottery selection. Jalen Suggs, who was picked just before Giddey in that draft, received a five-year, $150.5 million extension last summer. Leading up to the 2024 trade for Giddey, the Bulls turned down draft picks in proposed deals for Caruso before sending him to Oklahoma City without any draft capital attached. Since June 2023, Chicago has acquired just one first-round pick: its own pick in this summer’s draft, which was used to take Noa Essengue at No. 12.
The highest average annual value suggested for Giddey in the poll was $25 million — but that also was the most common one. Seven participants proposed contracts worth $25 million a year, in part because the Bulls could accommodate that much. Chicago is nearly $40 million below the luxury tax at the moment.
The Bulls have room to spare. For now, despite a barren market and the curse of restricted free agency, Giddey is hoping they spare it for him.
(Top photo: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
