Fantasy Football Draft Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC South (2025)

Therefore, Collins could see an increase in receiving touchdowns, especially if Stroud has a third-year breakout. Furthermore, the superstar has been one of the more productive wide receivers in the NFL. According to Fantasy Points Data, Collins ranked third in yards per route run (2.94), sixth in target per route run rate (29%), sixth in first down per route run rate (14%), and seventh in fantasy points per route run (0.62) among wide receivers with at least 30 targets last season.

Calvin Ridley (TEN): ADP 65.8 | WR31

Some believe Ridley will be this year’s Terry McLaurin – a veteran having a career season thanks to a massive upgrade at quarterback. Last season, McLaurin was the WR31 drafted in ADP but finished as the WR7, averaging 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game, a career high. Meanwhile, Ridley was the WR28 last year, averaging 11.7 fantasy points per game, a career low. However, he was significantly better with Mason Rudolph than with Will Levis under center.

* via Fantasy Points Data

Not only was Ridley far more productive with Rudolph than Levis, but his targets (8.6 vs. 6.2) and receiving yards (84 vs. 49.8) per game also significantly improved. More importantly, the veteran wide receiver had limited opportunities to find the end zone. Ridley finished 48th among wide receivers with four receiving touchdowns last season. He only scored once in the red zone and saw fewer targets inside the 20-yard line than Tyler Johnson (nine vs. eight).

Yet, that should change in 2025 with better quarterback play. Ridley had a 19.4% first-read target share in the red zone last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the Titans let Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and his team-high nine receiving touchdowns leave in free agency, replacing him with past his prime Tyler Lockett and a pair of Day 3 rookie picks. Imagine how well Ridley will play with Cam Ward under center and no meaningful target competition.

Fantasy Football Bust Candidates

Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC): ADP 14.5 | WR8

Let me be clear before an angry mob gets organized – I do not think Thomas will be a bust this season. He is the WR8 in ADP and the WR10 in my rankings. However, Thomas does have some meaningful risk after the Jaguars traded up in the NFL Draft for Travis Hunter. While Jacksonville hasn’t offered much clarity on how much the rookie will play on offense, fantasy players should prepare for Hunter to play significant snaps alongside Thomas.

Last year, he finished as the WR4, averaging 16.7 PPR fantasy points per game, thanks to an outstanding run at the end of the season. Thomas was the WR10 over the first 14 weeks, averaging 6.5 targets, 0.46 touchdowns, and 14 fantasy points per game. By comparison, he was the WR1 over the final month, averaging 12 targets, one touchdown, and 25.5 fantasy points per game, totaling at least 10 targets and 17.3 fantasy points in every outing.

Unfortunately, Thomas’ spike in production came with Evan Engram and Christian Kirk out of the lineup, leading to the increase in targets. Furthermore, he could see a decline in deep ball targets after the Jaguars signed Dyami Brown in free agency, after Thomas ranked second in the NFL with 30 last year (per Fantasy Points Data). While he should get drafted as a low-end WR1 this season, Thomas is far from bust-proof and could fall short of expectations.

Michael Pittman Jr. (IND): ADP 116.8 | WR49

Pittman is one of my favorite dynasty buy-low trade targets because I believe he is heading into his final season with the Colts. Unfortunately, the former USC star is stuck in an unfriendly fantasy situation in Indianapolis. Last year, the veteran was the WR41, averaging 10.4 PPR fantasy points per game, his lowest average since his rookie season in 2020. Furthermore, Pittman’s three receiving touchdowns were the lowest total of his career since his rookie year.

More importantly, he saw a massive drop in target volume. After averaging 8.8 or more targets per game each of the previous two seasons, Pittman averaged 6.9 per contest in 2024 despite back-to-back performances with 10 targets in Week 17 and Week 18, accounting for over 18% of his total for the year. Furthermore, the veteran is no longer the Colts’ top wide receiver, averaging fewer targets and fantasy points per game than Josh Downs (7.6 and 13.1).

Moreover, Alec Pierce averaged only 0.3 fewer fantasy points per game than Pittman last season despite seeing 2.6 fewer targets per outing (4.3). Unfortunately, Indianapolis spent their first-round NFL Draft pick on Tyler Warren, who should significantly impact Pittman’s target volume in the middle of the field. More importantly, Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones were two of the most inaccurate passers in the NFL last year. I refuse to draft Pittman as a top 120 pick.

Fantasy Football Sleepers to Target

Tyler Warren (IND): ADP 117.2 | TE10

Last year, Brock Bowers was the TE11 in ADP despite being an elite rookie prospect and a top-15 pick in the NFL Draft. Many were worried he would struggle as a rookie because of poor quarterback production and a crowded receiving corps. Yet, Bowers finished his rookie season as the TE1, averaging 15.5 PPR fantasy points per game, totaling the fifth-most targets in the league (153). Hopefully, the fantasy community doesn’t make the same mistake with Warren in 2025.

The Colts barely used their tight ends last year. Indianapolis threw 75 passes to their tight ends for a 15.3% target share, ranking as the fourth-lowest in the NFL in both categories. However, they were 16th in tight end targets (119) and 15th in tight end target share (21.8%) in Shane Steichen’s first season as the head coach, despite Kylen Granson being their top option. Meanwhile, Warren is a dynamic weapon in the passing game, especially after the catch.

According to PFF, the former Penn State star had 33 screen pass targets last year, the most among tight ends and the eighth-most in college football. Warren averaged 10.1 yards after the catch per screen reception. The Colts have two inaccurate quarterbacks, which should lead to an uptick in designed targets and screen passes in the offense. While he won’t be the fantasy TE1 as a rookie like Bowers, don’t be surprised if Warren leads Indianapolis in targets.

Trevor Lawrence (JAC): ADP 162.3 | QB20

Unfortunately, Lawrence hasn’t lived up to the draft hype that came along with being the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He has fallen well short of expectations. However, the former Clemson star has played for multiple dysfunctional Jaguars teams, including last season. Last year, Lawrence finished as the QB27, averaging 1.1 passing touchdowns and 14.5 fantasy points per game, missing seven contests because of multiple injuries, including a season-ending concussion in Week 13.

Lawrence is one of my favorite bounce-back candidates and QB2 targets in superflex drafts this year despite coming off an awful season. Jacksonville hired Liam Coen as their head coach after he played a massive role in Baker Mayfield having a career year in 2024. The veteran finished as the QB4, averaging 2.4 passing touchdowns and 21.5 fantasy points per game despite Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missing 13 combined contests because of injury.

Furthermore, Mayfield averaged 0.59 fantasy points per dropback last season with Coen on the sidelines, ranking fifth out of 31 quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the Jaguars have set Lawrence up to succeed this year after improving the offensive line in free agency and trading up in the NFL Draft for Travis Hunter. Don’t be surprised if the former Clemson star finally lives up to his draft hype this season.