Fantasy football analyst Scott Pianowski takes a snapshot of every NFL team from the AFC.
AFC South
Tennessee Titans
Calvin Ridley is no longer an exciting fantasy player entering his age-31 season. But he’s also the best target in the Tennessee receiver room, and now that the Titans have a credible QB starter in Cam Ward, Ridley could be an interesting value play.
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Ridley currently holds an affordable draft-sticker price of WR31, something he can easily beat in a healthy season. This is also a show of faith in play designer Brian Callahan, who knew how to utilize Ridley last year.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy managers love shiny new things, and they don’t come much shinier than Travis Hunter. He obviously was a two-way star at Colorado and he’s going to keep some of those defensive snaps with the Jaguars. That could be a slight negative to his fantasy value, perhaps adding a little extra injury risk and perhaps taking away from his development as a pro receiver. Additionally, the Jaguars already have a young alpha receiver who spread his wings last year in Brian Thomas Jr. Given how the market tends to aggressively chase after buzzy rookies, I can’t draft Hunter proactively this summer.
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Indianapolis Colts
Tyler Warren was a catch machine his final year at Penn State, securing 101 passes for 1,233 yards. And we’ve seen rookie tight ends make a fantasy splash in each of the last two seasons. But Warren’s onboarding with the Colts might be a bumpy one, given the limitations of quarterbacks Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones. There’s also a crowding issue, as Indianapolis has a number of capable pass-catchers in the wide receiver room. Warren’s tight end ADP was once as high as TE13 in Yahoo rooms (currently TE18), a bit too optimistic for me.
Houston Texans
Nico Collins was headed for a monster season last year but injury obscured part of the story. He finished as the WR23 in overall points, but that jumps to WR8 if you grade everyone on a per-game basis. And now it’s presumable the Texans will have a better offense; they likely upgraded at offensive coordinator and it will be hard to run as unlucky with injuries as they did last season. Target Collins proactively as he readies for his age-26 season.
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AFC North
Cleveland Browns
The early market doesn’t believe Jerry Jeudy’s breakout year — although he was the WR15 in half-point PPR scoring last season, he’s being drafted at the WR37 slot this spring. Alas, I think the market is probably right. Cleveland’s quarterback room might be even worse than it was last year, and the Browns likely recognize their path to competing is to ugly things up by relying on defense and the running game. That sort of approach puts a capped ceiling on the passing game. Jeudy also has a modest touchdown rate as a pro; receivers own most of that metric once you get deep into a career. Even at a bargain cost, Jeudy is not a proactive target for me in 2025.
Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s not common for a non-injured player to lose a ton of fantasy value in early July, but that’s what happened to Jonnu Smith this summer. The Dolphins featured him in a way that the Steelers likely will not, which means Smith probably returns to the useful-but-unspectacular player he was before 2024. Think back to the 50-582-3 line Smith produced with the 2023 Falcons — when Kyle Pitts was his teammate and Arthur Smith his OC — and that’s the neighborhood of what to expect this year. I had Smith as the TE7 before the trade; he’s now in the mid-teens. Smith and Pat Freiermuth are tight ends with different skill sets, but Freiermuth also loses with the trade — I’ve bumped him down to TE20.
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Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were a perfect fantasy carnival last year, a reliable offense that was pushed into regular shootouts by its lousy defense. It was almost too good to be true for fantasy managers, especially when you consider how narrow Cincinnati’s usage tree was. The good news: I’m not sure much has changed. The offense is still top-heavy, the defense still somewhat suspect. There’s no reason to complicate things here; Ja’Marr Chase is the top player on my board, and Joe Burrow, Chase Brown and Tee Higgins all qualify as proactive targets.
Baltimore Ravens
EDITOR’S NOTE: The following was written before news of Isaiah Likely rolling his ankle in practice on July 29. He is expected to miss a few weeks.
When fantasy managers target those “one injury away” upside picks, they’re usually thinking about running backs. Isaiah Likely is the rare tight end who fits this frame. The Baltimore offense supported two useful tight ends last year — Mark Andrews was the TE5, Likely the TE16 — and Likely probably has more upside moving forward, given that he’s five years younger than Andrews.
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Selecting Likely isn’t for everyone, because he won’t project as a sure fantasy starter unless Andrews (or perhaps a Baltimore wide receiver) gets hurt this fall. But this is the type of upside pick that could tilt your league. Likely is an interesting option, landing around pick 130 in Yahoo pools.
AFC East
New York Jets
Justin Fields might never be a great NFL quarterback. He has a major sack problem, and he won just 10 of 38 games as the Chicago starter. That said, Fields is a gifted runner and he’s tied to a Jets team that can probably play to his strengths. And given that Tyrod Taylor is the backup, Fields probably begins the year with a fair amount of job security. He also dodged a training camp injury scare recently.
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New York’s receiver group isn’t deep, but at least Fields had experience — and success — with WR Garrett Wilson in college. Given how fantasy leagues score quarterback rushing production, Fields still looks like a value with a global ADP of QB10.
New England Patriots
Drake Maye somehow kept his head above water in his rookie year despite very little help. Now he’s an interesting breakout candidate entering Year 2.
New England proactively tried to fix everything that was broken around Maye. The line will be better, the skill players have been upgraded. Josh McDaniels never worked as an NFL head coach, but he’s a smart rehire at offensive coordinator. And Maye is resourceful and athletic enough to supplement his passing value with occasional running. Maye currently sits as the QB15 in Yahoo ADP — that shows some market confidence, but still reasonable room for profit.
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Miami Dolphins
The price has come down significantly on Tyreek Hill — he’s currently the WR17 in Yahoo ADP. But even at that nice price, I’m nervous. Hill didn’t have a catch over 30 yards after Week 1 last season, which speaks to Tua Tagovailoa’s limitations and injury-mandated playing style (quick throws preferred). Obviously, Tua is still the QB here. Hill also enters his age-31 season, and I’m concerned he might go off the reservation if Miami has a rocky start. Mike McDaniel has to re-earn his Circle of Trust privileges. I’ll be underweight on Hill this draft season.
Buffalo Bills
Although Ray Davis is about 30 pounds heavier than teammate James Cook, don’t overlook what Davis can do in the passing game. Davis was a reliable pass-catcher during his itinerant college days, and he secured 17-of-19 opportunities last year, making a juicy 9.9 yards per target. We’ve already had a look at what Davis might do in a featured role — he picked up a midseason start last year and rolled for 152 total yards. With Cook undersized and unhappy about his contract, Davis is one of the more interesting speculative plays on the board.
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AFC West
Las Vegas Raiders
In a shocking turn of events, rookie tight ends have led the position in fantasy points each of the past two seasons. But we have to be mindful that Sam LaPorta had a mild tumble in his second year, and perhaps that’s what Brock Bowers will face in 2025.
It won’t be for a lack of talent, of course — Bowers is an athletic freak. But the stumbling Raiders were forced into mostly negative game scripts last year, which led to a whopping 635 pass attempts, fourth-most in the league. It’s doubtful Las Vegas will be that unbalanced again, especially with rookie RB Ashton Jeanty ready for a featured role. Veteran QB Geno Smith should improve the octane of the offense, and it probably means a hit to the overall passing volume.
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Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton’s ADP has toggled between WR23 and WR25 in Yahoo leagues this summer. That’s probably a little disrespectful, given that he was the WR10 in basic scoring last year. Sutton isn’t a speed merchant, but he’s outstanding on boundary and red-zone plays, which has led to 18 touchdowns the last two years. He’s the clear No. 1 read in the Denver passing game (he was recently awarded a contract extension), and I love targeting a player who can regress from a previous level of production but still deliver a fantasy profit.
Los Angeles Chargers
It took Ladd McConkey some time to figure out the pro game, and for the Chargers to figure him out. But things were cooking in the latter stages of the year — McConkey posted a 45-657-3 line over his final seven games in the regular season (that tracks to 109 catches and almost 1,600 yards in a full season), and then detonated for a 9-197-1 line in the playoff loss to Houston. The genie is out of the bottle. McConkey’s current Yahoo ADP is outside the top 20 overall, a screaming buying opportunity.
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Kansas City Chiefs
For most of the spring, I was sure I wouldn’t be drafting Travis Kelce this year. He’s entering his age-36 season and his YPC tumbled to 8.5 last fall. But Kelce’s volume always comes guaranteed in Kansas City — he’s had at least 103 targets for 10 straight years, with an average of 131 — and the Chiefs might be managing a Rashee Rice suspension at some point in 2025. Kelce doesn’t move as well as he once did, but he’s always going to be 6-foot-5 — the biggest target downfield, the immovable object. Kelce’s fantasy floor is sturdy enough that I’ll consider him at his current Yahoo ADP in the mid-60s.
