Here’s what I’m hearing from major-league sources with less than three full days until the conclusion of the MLB trade deadline at 6 p.m. ET Thursday.
The loss of closer Emmanuel Clase to non-disciplinary leave as part of a Major League Baseball investigation into sports betting did not simply deprive the Cleveland Guardians of their top trade chip. It ended any chance of the Guardians becoming a buyer, and likely increased the possibility of the team trading right-hander Shane Bieber and perhaps left fielder Steven Kwan.
Bieber, recovering from Tommy John surgery in April 2024, is expected to be heavily scouted Tuesday night in a rehab start at Double A. The Guardians re-signed the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner in December to a deal that pays him $10 million this season and gives him a $16 million player option for 2026 — an option Bieber, 30, might very well decline if he comes back strong.
Kwan, 27, is earning $4.175 million this season and under club control through salary arbitration for two years after that. He is drawing “a ton” of interest, according to a club source, with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres believed to be among the teams in the mix.
The Guardians intend to set a high bar for their desired return. The combination of Kwan’s age, additional years of control and offensive, defensive and base-running ability makes him perhaps the best position player available. He is more than six years younger than Eugenio Suárez, a rental, and his fWAR is 2.8 to Suárez’s 3.0.
While the Guardians’ chances of signing Kwan to an extension might be slim, this will not be their last opportunity to trade him. They can try again this offseason, when they possibly could involve even more teams, as well as the next two deadlines and — if there is no lockout — the 2026-27 offseason.
The Milwaukee Brewers, who acquired catcher Danny Jansen from the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday, are among the teams interested in the Baltimore Orioles’ Ryan O’Hearn.
While O’Hearn would not be a perfect fit for Milwaukee, the team could find at-bats for him at first base, in left field and at designated hitter.
Christian Yelich is the Brewers’ primary DH. Andrew Vaughn has filled in well at first for Rhys Hoskins, who is expected to return from a sprained left thumb in mid-to-late August. Switch hitter Isaac Collins, one of the season’s bigger surprises, has emerged as the team’s primary left fielder.
The Brewers, however, entered Monday ranked 21st in slugging percentage by left-handed hitters and 23rd in home runs. O’Hearn, 32, was batting only .218 with a .648 OPS since May 27. But among the Brewers, only Yelich (19) and Jackson Chourio had exceeded his total of 12 homers.
O”Hearn, a potential free agent, will be owed about $2.5 million. The Brewers also showed interest in another left-handed-hitting first baseman, Josh Naylor, before the Arizona Diamondbacks sent him to the Seattle Mariners. Naylor, at the time, was owed nearly $4 million.
Something to watch with the surging Texas Rangers: Whether they are willing to go over the luxury-tax threshold for the third consecutive season.
The Rangers’ estimated luxury-tax payroll, per Fangraphs, is $234.9 million. The first threshold is $241 million. As a third-time offender, the Rangers would be taxed at 50 percent for every dollar they spend over the threshold. If they stay under, their penalty rate would reset to 20 percent.
Winners of six straight games and nine of 10 entering Monday night, the Rangers were still day to day in determining how aggressively they should buy. If ownership gives the front office the flexibility to exceed the threshold, the Rangers might as well go significantly past the number. It would make little sense to end the season, say, $1 million over.
A trade of right fielder Adolis García, who will be owed approximately $3 million at the deadline, would create additional room under the threshold. The Rangers also could move a pitcher such as right-hander Jon Gray or one of their catchers, Jonah Heim or Kyle Higashioka. But such trades would be self-defeating for a team trying to reach the postseason.
The Rangers want to add another right-handed hitter as well as a high-leverage reliever, such as the St. Louis Cardinals’ Ryan Helsley or Pittsburgh Pirates’ David Bednar. Trading García would subtract a right-handed bat, and like many of the Rangers’ hitters, he is on the upswing.
Through May 28, Garcia was batting .208 with a .626 OPS. Since then, he has been better, hitting .256 with a .728 OPS. He also is an excellent defender, and the Rangers consider him an important part of their club.
By awarding president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer a contract extension, the Chicago Cubs effectively reduced the pressure on him at the deadline, at least as far as his job security was concerned.
Pittsburgh Pirates GM Ben Cherington, on the other hand, remains in limbo, and not without reason. Hoyer’s team is well-positioned for a playoff berth. Cherington’s is headed for a sixth straight losing season.
The question is how owner Bob Nutting will evaluate Cherington’s performance at the deadline and beyond.
If Nutting judges Cherington partly on how the Pirates finish, a sell-off involving Bednar, Mitch Keller and others likely would make the team even less competitive, damaging the GM’s standing.
But if Cherington takes a passive approach, declining to leverage his ample supply of pitchers to acquire impact hitters, Nutting could fire him for a different reason — failing to put the team in better position for 2026.
History suggests that treading lightly could be the wrong play. In 2019, then Pirates-GM Neal Huntington moved rentals Corey Dickerson and Jordan Lyles at the deadline but held on to several rentals and valuable veterans. The Pirates were 47-61, compared to 44-62 now. Nutting fired Huntington after that season.
The situation is awkward, to say the least. Whatever path Cherington chooses, he might be doomed.
The Chicago White Sox believe they would look ridiculous accepting a mid-tier prospect for a player as talented as center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Their stance is that if they don’t land at least one of a trade partner’s top 10 prospects for Robert, they will pick up his $20 million option.
Teams’ top 10 lists vary in quality, but no matter. The prospective suitors, which include the Padres, Phillies and New York Mets, evidently believe the White Sox are bluffing.
With only $20.6 million committed to their 2026 payroll, the White Sox certainly could absorb Robert at his option price. But this is a player who appeared in more than 100 games only once in his first four full seasons. He is at 86, with 55 games remaining.
So far, so good, but a player who is injured as often as Robert typically doesn’t warrant a $20 million investment. And if the White Sox decline to trade Robert, who’s to say he won’t shut down the first time he feels a twinge after the deadline, effectively forcing their hand on the option?
The White Sox, then, are in something of a no-win position. Trade Robert for the mid-tier prospect teams are offering, and feel short-changed if he returns to the player he was in 2023. Keep him and exercise the option, and assume the risk he will again miss significant time. Keep him and decline the option, and receive nothing in return when he departs as a free agent.
The best guess is that in the end, they take what they can get.
Four trade candidates started Monday, with mixed results. The Miami Marlins’ Edward Cabrera was the only one to produce a quality start. The Pirates’ Keller lasted only two innings. The Orioles’ Zach Eflin and Athletics’ JP Sears failed to complete five.
Tuesday’s slate of games includes two starters who could be moved — the Orioles’ Charlie Morton and the Washington Nationals’ Mike Soroka.
As of late Monday night, the Orioles’ plan was to pitch Morton in their 12:35 ET start against the Toronto Blue Jays unless talks in the morning got hot. The Nationals were taking the same approach with the less coveted Soroka.
Morton, 41, has a 3.80 ERA in his last 11 starts. That ERA was even lower before he allowed seven runs to the Rays in his first start after the break. But he rebounded from that game to hold the Guardians to three runs in 6 2/3 innings last Thursday.
Among the Marlins in play: Right-handed reliever Anthony Bender, who is earning $1.42 million and under club control through arbitration for two additional seasons.
Bender, 30, throws 45 percent sweepers, 27 percent sinkers and 22 percent sliders, according to Statcast. He entered Monday with a 1.83 ERA in 44 1/3 innings, but an expected 3.48 ERA that was nearly twice as high.
His strikeout rate had dropped from 25.9 percent last season to 19.9 percent in this one. His lofty ground-ball rate also had dipped slightly, from 51.7 to 50.4 percent. But the San Diego Padres, among other clubs, were considering him.
And finally, the New York Yankees, in doing their background work on third baseman Ryan McMahon, checked with some of his former teammates with the Colorado Rockies.
One of those former teammates was the player whose release effectively created the opening for McMahon — DJ LeMahieu. The two played together in Colorado in 2017-18, and LeMahieu gave the Yankees a strong recommendation.
LeMahieu, 37, plans to wait until the trade deadline passes before signing with another team. He didn’t want to join a club and then suddenly find his spot in jeopardy if his new team acquired another player.
— The Athletic’s Will Sammon, Zack Meisel and Stephen J. Nesbitt contributed to this report.
(Photo of Steven Kwan: Nick Cammett / Getty Images)
