Fantasy Football Draft Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC West (2025)

Thankfully, the 2025 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.

In the fourth part of an eight-part series, I identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC West.

Fantasy Football Draft Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC West

ADP via FantasyPros

Fantasy Football ADP Values

Ashton Jeanty (LV): ADP 9.8 | RB5

Dynasty fantasy players with the 1.01 rookie pick couldn’t have been happier this year. Jeanty was the clear-cut top pick after an all-time 2024 season at Boise State. While he fell short of breaking Barry Sanders’ rushing record, Jeanty had the second-most rushing yards ever, totaling 2,601 in 14 games. Furthermore, the superstar rookie was the hardest running back to tackle in college football. His 1,970 yards after contact were 258 more than any other running back’s total rushing yardage.

Yet, Jeanty isn’t just a contact runner but can make defenders miss. According to PFF, the former Boise State star had 163 missed tackles forced last year, 48 more than Cam Skattebo (115) and 51 more than Bijan Robinson’s best season in 2022 (112). More importantly, Jeanty has significant upside in the passing game. Last year, Boise State gave him every opportunity to break the rushing record, leading to a dip in passing game work.

Most total missed tackles forced by any FBS RB in any season in PFF College history (since 2014)

1. Ashton Jeanty, 2024 (163)
—
2. Cam Skattebo, 2024 (115)
3. Bijan Robinson, 2022 (112)
4. David Montgomery, 2017 (109)
5. Ashton Jeanty, 2023 (106)

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) February 4, 2025

However, Jeanty was outstanding in 2023. He caught 44 of his 48 targets for 578 receiving yards and five touchdowns, averaging 3.19 yards per route run. More importantly, the former Boise State star will be one of a few legitimate featured running backs this season. Jeanty will be the focal point of Peter Carroll and Chip Kelley’s offense, earning 20 touches per game. Don’t be surprised if he finishes as a top-three running back as a rookie.

Ladd McConkey (LAC): ADP 23.8 | WR11

McConkey started his NFL career with a strong fantasy performance, totaling 14.9 PPR fantasy points in Week 1 on seven targets. Unfortunately, he had a slow start outside of that one performance, averaging 9.5 fantasy points per game over the next six weeks despite seeing 6.4 targets per outing. However, once Justin Herbert was healthy, McConkey became an elite fantasy wide receiver. He was the WR8 from Week 8 through Week 18, averaging 17.8 fantasy points per game.

The former Georgia star averaged more fantasy points per game over those 11 weeks than several big-name wide receivers, including fellow rookies Brian Thomas Jr. (17.5) and Malik Nabers (17.4), despite having only two outings with double-digit targets. Furthermore, McConkey was consistent for fantasy players, scoring 11.4 or more in all but one of those games. More importantly, the superstar was one of the more productive wide receivers regardless of where he lined up.

Many label McConkey a slot receiver. However, the former Georgia star ranked fourth among qualifying wide receivers in yards per route (3.16) and fantasy points per route run (0.65) when lined up outside (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, the Chargers didn’t add a big-name wide receiver this offseason, opting to use their second-round NFL Draft pick on Tre Harris. Yet, the rookie is no threat to McConkey’s role as Herbert’s go-to wide receiver. He should have another top-12 finish in 2025.

Fantasy Football Bust Candidates

Isiah Pacheco (KC): ADP 69.2 | RB27

Fantasy players had high hopes for Pacheco last year after an impressive 2023 season. The former Rutgers star finished that year as the RB15, averaging 15.3 PPR fantasy points per game, nearly doubling his average as a rookie. Unfortunately, he was a massive bust after getting drafted as the RB10 on average, ending the season as the RB64, averaging 8.1 fantasy points per game, only 0.2 higher than his rookie year average.

Furthermore, Pacheco posted career lows in yards per rushing attempt (3.7), offensive touchdowns (one), and fantasy points per touch (0.6). More importantly, his role in the passing game disappeared. The former Rutgers star averaged 5.7 fantasy points per game in the air in 2023, posting a 9.5% target share and 38.4% route participation rate. By comparison, Pacheco averaged 2.9 fantasy points per game while posting a 6.3% target share and 28% route participation rate last season.

Unfortunately, the veteran is unlikely to earn back the passing game role after the Chiefs drafted Brashard Smith. While some will point to Pacheco’s injury for his disappointing year, the veteran regressed following his career season in 2023 before getting hurt. More importantly, Kansas City has been splitting the first-team reps in training camp between Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, and Elijah Mitchell. Between the crowded backfield and his injury history, fantasy players shouldn’t draft Pacheco anywhere near his RB27 ADP.

* via Fantasy Points Data

Jakobi Meyers (LV): ADP 95.8 | WR43

Meyers was the WR19 last season, averaging 14.5 PPR fantasy points per game despite playing on one of the worst offenses in the NFL. While the Raiders’ passing attack struggled, they threw at one of the highest rates in the league, finishing fourth in pass attempts (635), totaling 84 more than the Detroit Lions (551) and 87 more than the Minnesota Vikings (548). Furthermore, the veteran had 129 targets in 15 games, the 15th-most among wide receivers.

Yet, Meyers’ 0.4 fantasy points per route run finished 31st among 53 wide receivers with at least 75 targets last year (per Fantasy Points Data). While Las Vegas upgraded at quarterback this offseason, going from Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell to Geno Smith, the team won’t pass at the same 37.4 attempts per game after vastly improving their rushing attack. Last year, the Raiders ranked bottom-five in the NFL in rushing attempts (380), yards per attempt (3.6), and touchdowns (10).

That won’t happen again in 2025 with Pete Carroll on the sidelines and Ashton Jeanty in the backfield. Furthermore, Las Vegas added meaningful target competition during the NFL Draft, spending two top 110 picks on Dont’e Thornton Jr. and Jack Bech. Both rookies have had impressive moments this offseason. Meanwhile, Tre Tucker was the second-most targeted wide receiver on the team last year (81). Meyers doesn’t have a clear enough pathway to targets to merit his top 100 draft cost.

Fantasy Football Sleepers to Target

J.K. Dobbins (DEN): ADP 128.4 | RB42

Fantasy players pushed RJ Harvey up in their dynasty rookie rankings after the Broncos invested a second-round NFL Draft pick in the former UCF star. More importantly, he was on track to have a featured role as a rookie after the team let Javonte Williams walk in free agency. However, that changed shortly after rookie minicamp when the team signed Dobbins. While Harvey remains my highest-ranked Denver running back, Dobbins is the far better draft value.

After missing 82.4% of the games over the previous three years with injuries, Dobbins mostly stayed healthy in 2024. The veteran finished as the RB24, averaging 14.8 PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he had a higher fantasy points per game average than several running backs with a higher ADP, including Bucky Irving (14.4) and D’Andre Swift (12.6). More importantly, the former Ohio State star was one of the more underrated effective runners in the NFL last season.

According to Fantasy Points Data, Dobbins ranked 12th in explosive run rate (5.1%) and sixth in rushing touchdown rate (4.9%) among 31 running backs with at least 150 rushing attempts last year. More importantly, Sean Payton’s offense has a history of supporting two fantasy-relevant running backs. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram each finished as a top-28 running back on a fantasy points-per-game basis in 2017 and 2018 when Payton was the head coach of the New Orleans Saints.

Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN): ADP 153.6 | WR57

Mims is one of my favorite sleeper candidates this season. He was the WR57 last year, averaging 3.1 targets and 7.6 PPR fantasy points per game. However, the former Oklahoma star was playing the best football of his career late last season, becoming a borderline must-start option for fantasy players. Mims was the WR22 from Week 13 through Week 18, averaging 17.5 PPR fantasy points per game, a higher average than A.J. Brown (16.2), Tyreek Hill (14.9), and his teammate Courtland Sutton (15.1).

Furthermore, Mims was a league winner during the fantasy playoffs. He was the WR3 over the final two weeks, averaging 6.5 receptions for 77 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and 26.2 fantasy points per game, posting a 4.81 yards per route run average. While many expected the Broncos to add a big-name wide receiver this offseason, the team didn’t make any massive additions. Instead, they signed Evan Engram and drafted Pat Bryant because of how Mims finished last year.

More importantly, he put up superstar numbers despite a limited workload. Mims had four games with more than four targets and only one outing with more than five. Yet, his efficiency was on par with or better than several superstars, including Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Nico Collins, and Brian Thomas Jr. Those four superstars each had a route participation rate of 71.8% or higher. By comparison, Mims had only a 28.1% route participation rate. He is primed for a third-year breakout.

* via Fantasy Points Data

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