The top teams in the National League West will square off on Friday night when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres at 10:10 p.m. ET in a game that has an over/under of 9. San Diego has taken a one-game lead over Los Angeles by winning 14 of its last 17 games, and star third baseman Manny Machado has hit safely in 17 of his last 20 games. Machado, who is up to 20 home runs this season, has been successful against Dodgers veteran Clayton Kershaw during his career. He has four homers against Kershaw and has 10 homers in 131 at-bats against left-handed pitchers this season, so SportsLine’s proven model is backing Machado to go yard at +360 odds on Friday night.Â
The Inside the Lines team is also including Zachary Neto (Angels) and Wilyer Abreu (Red Sox) in their MLB HR bets on Friday. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to receive $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and get $200 in bonus bets instantly after your first wager of $5 or more, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 56.9 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after nailing Brandon Lowe (+375) to homer on Wednesday, and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog, and see the model’s top MLB props for Friday here.
Best MLB home run picks for Friday, August 15:
MLB Best Home Run Bets 8/15
For more real-time, free picks every day:Â Inside the Lines Blog.
Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (+500, FanDuel)
Abreu is seeing the ball well, with three multi-hit games in his last four outings. While he hasn’t homered during that stretch, he’s back at home where his HR rate is slightly higher. He’s hit 20 of his 21 home runs against right-handed pitchers and faces Sandy Alcantara, who’s been inconsistent lately—allowing 11 earned runs over his last two starts. In 10 road starts this season, Alcantara has allowed a .939 OPS. We set Abreu’s line at +410 to homer, but you can get this line at +500 and use the latest FanDuel promo code to get $300 in bonus bets if your first wager of $5 or more wins:
Zachary Neto, Angels (+420, FanDuel)
Neto and the Angels are riding high after a sweep of the Dodgers, which should give them a confidence boost. Despite being a right-handed hitter, Neto has been much better against RHPs, hitting .286 with 14 of his 19 HRs this season against them. He faces A’s rookie Jack Perkins, who’s been more hittable in Sacramento’s hitter-friendly environment. We set Neto’s line at +380 to homer, but you can find this price at FanDuel and also get $300 in bonus bets if your first wager of $5 or more wins:
Manny Machado, Padres (+360, FanDuel)
Few hitters have had the success Machado has had against Clayton Kershaw—he’s 13-for-42 with 4 HRs against the future Hall-of-Famer. Machado hasn’t homered in his last 13 games, so we’re leaning into the “he’s due” narrative. He’s hit 10 HRs in 131 ABs vs. lefties and 10 HRs in 335 ABs vs. righties this season, so the model favors him in this lefty matchup. Machado has also been better on the road (.892 OPS) than at home (.805 OPS). We set his line around +250 to homer, making this a tremendous value with the listed price available at FanDuel:
Where to bet MLB props on Friday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Friday:Â
More MLB picks for FridayÂ
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 96-86-1 roll (+1691) on MLB picks.Â