MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Saturday (8/16)

Today’s DraftKings DFS slate begins at 5:10 p.m. ET and includes nine games. FanDuel has an identical slate, so we can compare the prices directly.

Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (8/16)

• Max Fried has been struggling a bit recently. Since the start of July, his ERA is 6.00, pulling his season-long 2.95 ERA more in line with his 3.16 FIP. Today, he is set up for a matchup against a bottom-five lineup in OPS so far this month in St. Louis.
• The first two starts of Adrian Houser’s Tampa Bay career have been his worst two starts of the season. After limiting hits (8.1 per nine innings) and home runs (three in 68.2 innings) with the White Sox, it has gone south quickly with the Rays. Houser has allowed 17 hits, including two home runs, in just 10.2 innings. He looks to bounce back against a San Francisco team that is bottom-five in OPS for the season.
• Everyone knows the struggles of the Rockies’ offense. If you look at wRC+, which mitigates Coors Field, they are dead last by a decent margin. However, Ryne Nelson’s game is at Coors Field today, where the Rockies are top-10 in baseball in home OPS. Nelson is the type of pitcher who should have success there, as he throws his fastball nearly 64% of the time. His price on DraftKings is especially intriguing.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Lineup (8/16)

• Dylan Cease has struggled with run prevention all season. Even though he strikes out nearly 12 batters per nine innings, he still has an ERA of 4.52. He has already faced the Dodgers once this season, where he pitched his best game with zero earned runs over seven innings. I’m expecting the second time to go differently.
• If you can find the money, pay up for Shohei Ohtani in your roster today. He is on a tear with a 1.411 OPS in August. Plus, he has had previous success against Cease. In his career, he is 9-for-25 with three home runs against Cease.
• After an uncharacteristically cool June and July, Freddie Freeman got his power stroke back recently. He has a .943 OPS in August. While he doesn’t have the power history against Cease, he is also 6-for-16 with a double against him. He is a safe floor option that also offers a high ceiling.
• If you want some cheaper exposure to the Dodgers, consider Michael Conforto. He is not having a good August, with only a .100 batting average and a .167 slugging rate. However, all nine of his home runs have come against right-handed pitchers like Cease. He has also gone 5-for-17 against Cease in his career with three doubles.

Houston Astros Projected Lineup (8/16)

• The Houston Astros are being opposed today by left-handed pitcher Cade Povich. The New York Yankees are the only team with a higher OPS against left-handed pitchers than the Astros. While Povich has been better recently, they have been shorter starts against offenses not up to the caliber of the Astros.
• Carlos Correa has gotten off to a good start in his return to Houston. In his 11 games with the team, he is batting .364 with a .974 OPS. He will help further solidify their left-handed dominance. He has five home runs against left-handed pitchers in 89 at-bats, and four home runs against right-handed pitchers in 292 at-bats.
• Yainer Diaz hasn’t taken the step forward that many were hoping for in draft season, but it’s still a solid season for a catcher with 17 home runs and 53 RBI. Five of those home runs have come against left-handed pitchers, which is why his OPS against left-handed pitchers is nearly .800.
• Cam Smith is the affordable option in the Astros’ lineup. He has become a platoon player, but he is playing against left-handed pitchers. It makes sense given that he has a .296 batting average and a .914 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season.

Core Studs

• Putting Jose Ramirez in your lineup is never a bad idea. Putting Jose Ramirez in your lineup against a left-handed pitcher like Joey Wentz is a near must. He has 14 extra-base hits and 14 stolen bases against left-handed pitchers in 130 at-bats. He also has two home runs and a double against Wentz in just 12 at-bats.
• Another slugger who is better against left-handed pitchers is Brent Rooker. Rooker is poised for a matchup today with left-handed pitcher Tyler Anderson. Rooker has a 1.017 OPS against left-handed pitchers, which is fifth in all of baseball. He is also 5-for-14 against Anderson in his career with a pair of home runs.
• Since returning from the injured list (IL) earlier this week, Byron Buxton has added another home run to his tally. Today, he takes on Casey Mize. Buxton is 7-for-17 against Mize in his career with two doubles and two home runs.

Value Plays/Punts

Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Giancarlo Stanton (OF, DH – NYY): 0.5 Total Bases — Higher

Giancarlo Stanton doesn’t age. If he had the at-bats to qualify, he would still be second in average exit velocity and top-five in hard hit rate. He has had at least one total base in his last five games. Today, he has a matchup against Sonny Gray, who has allowed a .282 batting average to right-handed hitters.

Xavier Edwards (2B, SS – MIA): 1.5 Total Bases — Higher

There isn’t a hotter hitter in baseball than Xavier Edwards, who is batting .373 in August. Twenty of his 25 hits are singles, though. Still, he has been able to clear 1.5 total bases in five of his last six games and 11 out of 15 games in August. Today, he has a matchup against Brayan Bello.

Blake Snell (SP – LAD): 5.5 Strikeouts — Higher

Since coming back from injury, Blake Snell struck out eight against Tampa Bay and 10 against the Blue Jays. Today, he gets a matchup against a tough-to-strike-out San Diego Padres team. They have the third-lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Of course, the Blue Jays were the second lowest. It shows that when Snell is on, he can generate strikeouts against anyone.

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