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Kevin Pelton
In terms of Cooper Flagg’s chances of winning the Rookie of the Year award, the NBA draft lottery couldn’t have gone better.
Not only did the Dallas Mavericks land the No. 1 pick — meaning Flagg joins a competitive team where he won’t have to do it all as a rookie — but the other top two lottery picks also went to unexpected destinations. With the San Antonio Spurs, No. 2 pick Dylan Harper is behind newly extended De’Aaron Fox at point guard, while No. 3 pick VJ Edgecombe ended up with the Philadelphia 76ers, a team flush with guards and aspiring to contend.
Given those factors, it’s no surprise that Flagg is a heavy favorite (-190 odds at ESPN BET) to win Rookie of the Year. But a hyped prospect taking home hardware as a rookie is no sure thing. The last two American prospects in the same statistical category as Flagg, fellow Duke forward Zion Williamson in 2019 and Anthony Davis in 2012, fell short: Williamson dealt with injury, while Davis was simply bested by fellow future All-Star Damian Lillard.
With that in mind, let’s look at who might be able to challenge Flagg for Rookie of the Year, grouping them by category.
The contenders
Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz (+1600)
Tre Johnson, Washington Wizards (+750)
Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (+2800)
The three picks after Harper and Edgecombe all went to the kinds of rebuilding teams that have often produced Rookies of the Year. Since Ben Simmons won in 2017-18, just one winner (Scottie Barnes in 2021-22) has played for a team that won more than 46% of its games.
Bailey, Johnson and Knueppel joined three of the NBA’s worst teams from this past season and should get plenty of minutes right away. They’re the three rookies besides Flagg I project to average double-figure scoring.
Knueppel, Flagg’s teammate at Duke, might have the most ready-made opportunity to thrive. The Hornets have quality young talent in LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, who combined to play just 74 games this past season, and a glaring need for Knueppel’s shooting. Charlotte could start newcomer Collin Sexton next to Ball in the backcourt, but Sexton figures to fit better in a reserve role. And Knueppel was more effective at Duke than the other one-and-done players in this group, which explains why he ranked No. 2 in my stats-based projections.
Johnson, the third-leading scorer (19.5 PPG) behind Flagg and Edgecombe in summer league, could slot in immediately at shooting guard in Washington depending on how the Wizards decide to use veterans CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton. McCollum and Middleton don’t seem to figure in Washington’s long-term plans, and the team is short on shot creation behind them, creating opportunity for Johnson — the top rival to Flagg at ESPN BET.
I would give Bailey the longest odds of this group because Utah’s offense could cater to his worst instincts in terms of shot selection. Bailey shot 37% in two games with the Jazz at the Salt Lake City Summer League. Utah coach Will Hardy will undoubtedly push Bailey toward higher-value 3-point shots, but the Jazz lost two of their best shot creators in Sexton and Jordan Clarkson and are relying on recent draft picks to replace them.
The wild cards
Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs (+1000)
VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+1200)
These odds — third- and fourth-best, respectively — reflect the talent of the two players more than their opportunity. There is a clearer path for Edgecombe if the Sixers pivot toward retaining their pick (top-four protected, otherwise headed to the Oklahoma City Thunder) instead of trying to get back in the playoffs.
Still, the Philadelphia backcourt rotation is crowded with other talented young players. Tyrese Maxey is an All-Star and Jared McCain was the early favorite for Rookie of the Year in this past season’s wide-open race before undergoing a season-ending meniscus injury. The 76ers will also likely re-sign restricted free agent Quentin Grimes, who averaged 21.9 PPG in 28 games in Philly after the trade deadline.
Just this past season, we saw No. 3 pick Reed Sheppard — a trendy Rookie of the Year pick based on his stats-based projections (including mine) and strong play in the NBA summer league — struggle to earn minutes. There’s less precedent for that with No. 2 picks. Marvin Bagley III is the only No. 2 pick to start less than half his games as a rookie in the past decade. Bagley still averaged 25.3 MPG in a reserve role.
It’s unclear where the Spurs might find those minutes for Harper. Playing him and Fox together could be challenging because neither is a 3-point threat without the ball. And San Antonio returns its entire wing rotation, including reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle — another poor outside shooter.
If Fox or another Spurs guard misses an extended period, however, Harper’s chances of putting up the numbers necessary to contend for Rookie of the Year improve dramatically.
The long shots
Walter Clayton Jr., Utah Jazz (+3300)
Nique Clifford, Sacramento Kings (+5000)
Egor Demin, Brooklyn Nets (+7500)
Jeremiah Fears, New Orleans Pelicans (+5000)
Ryan Kalkbrenner, Charlotte Hornets (NR)
Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans (+7500)
This group is a combination of lower-drafted one-and-done prospects with paths to playing time and seniors who might be more ready to contribute immediately.
No player older than age 20 has won Rookie of the Year since Malcolm Brogdon in 2016-17, but we have seen more experienced rookies come close since then. Just this past season, 21-year-old Jaylen Wells finished third, while G League call-up Kendrick Nunn was second to Ja Morant in 2019-20.
Clayton and Clifford were two of the first three seniors drafted after No. 11 pick Cedric Coward, but I’m most intrigued by the rookie potential of second-round pick Kalkbrenner. The Charlotte Hornets no longer have a center of the future after trading Mark Williams on draft night, and Kalkbrenner might have the best chance of starting of any player taken outside the lottery. If he gets minutes, Kalkbrenner should put up strong offensive numbers.
Demin will compete to start at point guard for Brooklyn, which saw incumbent starter D’Angelo Russell leave in free agency. The challenge will be playing efficiently as a teenager in a Nets offense that features five first-round picks. I foresee similar issues for Fears and Queen in New Orleans.
Ultimately, Rookie of the Year will probably be Flagg’s award to lose. We’ll see whether another candidate can emerge from the pack to push the No. 1 pick.