Drafters are sharper than ever. Still, not every player is priced appropriately in half-PPR average draft position (ADP). The following two wide receivers are at opposite ends of their careers, with a once elite fantasy football asset possibly in decline, and a youngster being overdrafted after gamers chased his upside last year as well. Both have far more downside than upside at their respective ADPs. Let’s dig in and see why drafters should avoid the two highlighted wide receivers.
Drafters are sharper than ever. Still, not every player is priced appropriately in half-PPR average draft position (ADP). The following two wide receivers are at opposite ends of their careers, with a once elite fantasy football asset possibly in decline, and a youngster being overdrafted after gamers chased his upside last year as well. Both have far more downside than upside at their respective ADPs. Let’s dig in and see why drafters should avoid the two highlighted wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Wide Receivers to Avoid
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA): 29.7 ADP (WR12)
Tyreek Hill is coming off an underwhelming season. Among wideouts who played more than six games in 2024, he was tied for the WR30 in half-PPR points per game (10.5).
The once dominant wide receiver played through a significant wrist injury all season and had surgery after the season to remove screws. Still, the injury doesn’t award him a free pass for one of the worst seasons of his career. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Hill’s 4.8 receptions per game were tied for the second-fewest of his career, his 56.4 receiving yards per game were the fewest since his rookie season in 2016, his 7.8 yards per target were tied for the second-fewest in his career and his six touchdowns were the fewest in his career.
Hill’s underlying data wasn’t encouraging, either. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hill recorded 1.75 yards per route run and 3.5 yards after the catch per reception in 2024, which were both the lowest marks in his career. Hill’s lackluster yards after the catch in 2024 weren’t an outlier. Instead, he’s had the three lowest yards after the catch marks of his career in the past four seasons, which makes intuitive sense for an aging player entering his age-31 season.
Unfortunately, the veteran speedster also struggled deep last year. He had just five receptions on 19 targets of 20+ air yards in 2024. Thus, Hill was getting squeezed at both ends, both after the catch and deep.
Hill’s optimists want to dismiss his season as a fluky outlier, and they’re excusing him for Tua Tagovailoa missing six games last season. Tagovailoa has played every game in a season only once in his five-year career. Miami’s best offensive lineman, Terron Armstead, retired in the offseason. They’ve made changes along the offensive line, but it was dreadful last year, and expecting them to play as an average unit is both wishcasting and probably their ceiling. Miami’s offensive line can completely undermine its offense.
Additionally, moving beyond Hill’s on-field decline and advanced age, he has other red flags. Hill outright quit on the Dolphins in their final game last season.
Wow. The moment when Tyreek Hill quit in Sunday’s season finale at the Jets.
The Fox broadcast captured a stunned Jaylen Waddle asking him if he’s done. pic.twitter.com/nWyqSiGioG
– David Furones (@DavidFurones_) January 9, 2025
Hill also seemingly passive-aggressively indicated he wanted out of Miami after the season. His actions at the end of the year didn’t endear him to his teammates, including Tagovailoa. The two are still working through things. Hill is on the wrong side of 30, and his decline last year would be enough for me to avoid him at his ADP. However, the other nonsense makes it a no-brainer for me to allow someone else to roll the dice on him in fantasy football drafts this year.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI): 40.3 ADP (WR18)
Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t have a horrendous rookie season. Yet, he didn’t come close to living up to the lofty expectations that accompanied his NFL draft slot and fantasy football ADP last year. Harrison was the WR39 in half-PPR points per game (9.7) as a rookie.
Drafters are anticipating a massive leap in production this season, drafting him as the WR18. After not performing as even a WR3 in 12-team leagues last year, gamers are drafting him as a middle-tier WR2 this season. Could Harrison break even at that cost? Maybe. Still, gamers are sapping almost any upside he has by drafting him closer to his ceiling than his floor, which is not an optimal way to draft.
Trey McBride is Arizona’s best passing-game weapon, creating a roadblock for Harrison elevating to a top-20 receiver finish this season. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Cardinals were tied for the fourth-fewest situation-neutral plays per 60 minutes (57) last year. In addition, per the nfelo app, Arizona was tied for the 14th-lowest pass rate over expected (-2.5% PROE). Low play volume in neutral game scripts and a negative PROE isn’t ideal for Harrison’s receiving outlook.
Harrison’s underlying data last year was also a mixed bag. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Harrison had the following stats and ranks — in parentheses — among 98 wide receivers with at least 250 routes in the regular season and playoffs.
- 82.7% route participation (24th)
- 14.1-yard average depth of target (tied for the 15th-deepest aDOT)
- 1,613 air yards (sixth)
- 43.4% air yard share (sixth)
- 21.0% target share (33rd)
- 0.22 targets per route run (tied for 36th)
- 27.6% first-read rate (28th)
- 62 receptions (tied for 39th)
- 52.1 receiving yards per game (37th)
- 1.74 yards per route run (tied for 43rd)
- 13.6 expected half-PPR points per game (tied for 24th)
Harrison was a mainstay on the field and piled up a ton of air yards. However, his deep average depth of target increased the difficulty of Kyler Murray completing passes to him. Harrison’s target rates were mediocre, too. He had significantly more expected half-PPR points per game than actual half-PPR points per game.
Still, even the rosier number for expected fantasy points landed him at the end of WR2 territory, and gamers are drafting him as a top-20 wide receiver. Unless the Cardinals drastically change Harrison’s usage and ramp up his short and intermediate targets, he’ll be a volatile week-to-week option and unlikely to pay off his ADP.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.