As fantasy football draft season inches closer and closer, it’s time for our annual predictions of sleepers, busts and breakout players. Interpretations of the terms can vary for each, but here are the definitions for our purposes:
• Sleeper: A player who is being overlooked and will outperform his average draft position (ADP) in 2025.
• Bust: A highly regarded player who will underperform in 2025, relative to his ADP/ranking.
• Breakout: A player who will put up career-best numbers in 2025 and make a huge impact.
Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Daniel Dopp, Tyler Fulghum, Eric Karabell, Liz Loza, Eric Moody and Field Yates each contributed a sleeper and a bust for the major offensive positions, as well as one breakout candidate. You can find their picks below, as well as their analysis and insights on a selection of players they felt most passionate about in each category.
Editor’s note: This story will be updated throughout the preseason.
Jump to: Sleepers | Busts | Breakouts
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Sleepers
Cockcroft: While we’ve seen nothing yet from J.J. McCarthy at this level, as he missed his entire rookie season recovering from multiple knee surgeries, he is in one of his position’s best situations in which to succeed. Coach Kevin O’Connell’s offensive scheme heavily favors quarterbacks, with the position averaging 17.8 fantasy points per game (that’s 302.4 in a 17-game season) in his three years in the role. And McCarthy has one of the most talented groups of receivers, led by Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, with whom to work.
Bowen: At 6-foot-1, 224 pounds with straight-line acceleration and vision, Kaleb Johnson is an easy fit for the outside zone scheme in Pittsburgh. He had 21 rushes of 20 or more yards last season at Iowa — the second most in the country behind Ashton Jeanty — and he can post receiving numbers on swings, screens and unders. Johnson will share the backfield with Jaylen Warren, but the early-down volume in a run-heavy offense can push him into the RB2 ranks.
Karabell: Some might fade Travis Hunter in fantasy because of concern with potential snaps as a two-way player, but the Jaguars seem more likely to use him on offense rather than at cornerback. Hunter offers immediate WR2 upside, with a competent QB in Trevor Lawrence and a legitimate WR1 in Brian Thomas Jr. drawing more attention, and at an odd fraction of the cost according to early ADP figures (Thomas 19.0, Hunter 68.6).
Clay: The 10th pick in April’s draft, Colston Loveland has a ton of competition for targets in Chicago, but he very well could demand a generous share right out of the gate, should he prove the real deal. Working with new coach Ben Johnson and second-year QB Caleb Williams, Loveland certainly could work his way to lineup lock status during his rookie campaign. Rookie tight ends have generally struggled to make Year 1 impacts, but times might be changing, considering a first-year player paced the position each of the past two seasons (Sam LaPorta, Brock Bowers).
Busts
Dopp: Baker Mayfield‘s ADP is between QB6 and QB7, which means you’re likely drafting him at his ceiling (unless you think he’ll best Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson this season). With offensive coordinator Liam Coen now the head coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars and the questions surrounding Chris Godwin (injury) and Mike Evans (age), I’d rather draft someone with a little more headroom in their value.
Fulghum: James Cook screams regression candidate in 2025, especially with his ADP hovering around RB10 to RB12. Despite scoring a combined nine total TDs in his first two seasons, Cook exploded in 2024 with 18 total TDs — including a league-leading 16 on the ground. With Josh Allen continuing to dominate goal-line work and second-year RB Ray Davis earning more opportunities, Cook’s touchdown rate relative to his volume of touches is simply not sustainable.
Yates: DJ Moore is an excellent player who has shown himself to be a fantasy star. I’m bullish on QB Caleb Williams under Ben Johnson’s tutelage and think this offense could make a massive leap, but Moore’s outlook has me a little uneasy. The Bears selected tight end Colston Loveland and receiver Luther Burden III with their first two picks in the draft, adding two more pass-catchers to an offense that is already banking on a breakout year from second-year wideout Rome Odunze. While it’s easy to imagine Moore taking on an Amon-Ra St. Brown role under Johnson, it’s also possible the offense just has more balance overall, Ã la Detroit in 2024 (when St. Brown was a slightly steadier weekly option). Moore and Williams didn’t build as seamless a chemistry as I expected last season.
Breakouts
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders: I’ll take the layup. The No. 6 pick in April’s draft, Jeanty is easily the top fantasy prospect in this rookie class following a dominant tenure at Boise State. With 33-year-old Raheem Mostert his top threat for touches, Jeanty is positioned for a feature-back role right out of the gate in Las Vegas. An elite playmaker with a three-down skill set, Jeanty has the upside to be an elite fantasy football running back. — Clay
Drake Maye, QB, Patriots: Maye produced relevant fantasy numbers as a rookie, despite not starting a game until October, burdened by the lack of any semblance of game-breakers surrounding him and dealing with an incompetent coaching staff. That changes this season, with proven WR Stefon Diggs and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels among the noteworthy additions. Maye adds value with his legs and, with a little help, could easily perform at a QB1 level. — Karabell
Caleb Williams, QB, Bears: The Bears upgraded Williams’ head coach/playcaller, offensive line and pass-catchers in the draft and free agency. With Ben Johnson expected to bring a QB-friendly system that revived Jared Goff’s career in Detroit, Williams is poised to become the first QB in Bears franchise history to exceed 4,000 passing yards and/or 30 TDs in a season. Don’t forget about his untapped rushing upside, as well (400-plus rushing yards in each of his past two college seasons). — Fulghum
Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs: One could argue Rice has already “broken out,” but he hasn’t shown the consistency we need to see in fantasy. There is still some legit concern about a potential suspension to start this season, which means Rice will drop from being drafted as a top-15 WR to top 20-25 instead. When healthy over the past two years, Rice clearly took over the security blanket role that Travis Kelce had dominated for years in this Chiefs offense, and that role should only grow stronger with another year under his belt. Rice is a top-15 WR when he’s on the field, and should be easy to replace early in the season if he does gets suspended, given the depth at the wide receiver position. He should be drafted as a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 that can easily give you WR1 value on a per-game basis. — Dopp
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears: A top-15 wide receiver in end zone targets and average depth of target as a rookie, Odunze should emerge as a more consistent member of an improving Bears offense in 2025. The arrival of Ben Johnson, as well as the continued growth of quarterback Caleb Williams, should only help Odunze’s breakout prospects. He is a sizable target with explosive ability and among the highest statistical ceilings at the position. — Cockcroft
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers: McConkey finished top 20 in receptions and receiving yards as a rookie, so it can reasonably be argued that he broke out in 2024. But it’s his final seven games last season that have me most enthused. After posting just one game over 80 receiving yards in his first nine outings, McConkey reached at least 80 in six of his final seven games, catching at least five passes in all of them and hauling in three 40-plus-yard grabs (compared to just one in his first nine games). He’s the clear top receiving option with an excellent quarterback, and his role and usage should soar even further this season, giving him top-10 receiver upside. — Yates
Jameson Williams, WR, Lions: Williams had 16 receptions of 20 or more yards last season, and he averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game, buoyed by four games of 22-plus points. Despite a lack of consistent end zone targets (only four last season), Williams’ electric play speed and route deployment can produce breakout weeks in one of the league’s top scoring offenses. And with a bump in volume, Williams could jump into the WR2 mix. — Bowen
Keon Coleman, WR, Bills: Coleman has a clear path to a starting role in a high-powered Josh Allen offense and last season flashed serious big-play ability as a rookie. Despite missing four games, Coleman hauled in 12 passes of 20-plus yards and averaged 19.2 yards per reception, the third-highest mark in the league among players with at least 40 targets. With improved health and no true backup at X receiver, Coleman is positioned to make a second-year leap. — Moody
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals: Many expected Harrison to emerge on the pro scene with a bang, but his underwhelming rookie season landed more like a thud. After scoring four touchdowns in his first four games, Harrison scored only four more the rest of the season, and his catch percentage (53.4%) was lowest among all rookie wide receivers. But his talent and pedigree are unchanged and lessons learned from Year 1 could go a long way toward making 2025 his breakout season. Plus, outside of Trey McBride, he faces little competition for targets. — Bell
Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets: Full disclosure, I’m a long enduring Fields apologist. Had he been afforded the same opportunities as Caleb Williams, perhaps his potential “breakout” could have happened well before his fifth year in the league. Regardless, Fields is finally paired with an offensive coordinator who appears to understand his specific skill set. Tanner Engstrand, who called plays in the XFL and comes from the Dan Campbell coaching tree, has promised to stay aggressive and focus on the run. That bodes well for Fields’ rushing opportunities, which is an obvious Konami code for fantasy.
To that point, Fields was a top-two producer at the position in carries as well as rushing yards per game as the Bears’ starter in 2022 and 2023. That ground production helped him finish each campaign as a top-10 fantasy QB. There’s no reason to believe he can’t duplicate those numbers in New York, especially when noting his reunion with fellow Buckeye Garrett Wilson. Durability remains a concern, but given his depressed ADP (125), Fields projects as one of the best values at QB heading into the fall. — Loza