Predicting breakout receivers can be a bit of a challenge. Whereas breakout running backs can be pinpointed by finding guys who will have the opportunity for significant volume increases, breakout wide receivers rely more on developmental leaps to assert themselves as a true WR1. Whether it’s a rookie making an immediate splash or a second-year player taking charge of a receiving corps, who are this year’s breakout candidates at receiver?
Fantasy Football Breakout Wide Receivers
Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR)
We’re all traumatized from Marvin Harrison‘s rookie season. You may feel hesitant to overdraft a rookie receiver who is seemingly slotted into a No. 1 WR role, but Tetairoa McMillan’s situation is different. Harrison faced several issues: Questionable offensive play-calling, an existing first-look in Trey McBride and below-average passing volume.
Two of those three problems are a non-issue for McMillan. Dave Canales has a solid system and already showcased his offensive talents in the rehabilitation of Bryce Young last year. While there is existing young talent — Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, Ja’Tavion Sanders — and Adam Thielen, the offense doesn’t have a true first-look pass-catcher. Legette was the target leader with just 84 targets, and no player had over 50 receptions. The Panthers have made it clear that McMillan is the No. 1 WR of this offense.
Carolina’s pass attempts were slightly below average in 2024, but it wasn’t because they were run-heavy. The Panthers simply ran the 10th-fewest total plays in the league. They were far more reliant on the pass, but struggled with time of possession and overall efficiency. Some of the inefficiency was due to unreliability in the receiving corps.
McMillan solves multiple issues in this offense, offering reliable hands, a true contested catch receiver and a big red-zone target for a team that will continue to lean more on the pass. McMillan will be the target hog of this offense.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
Speaking of Marvin Harrison’s rookie year, his sophomore campaign is the perfect time for a bounce-back and breakout season. I just gave you a laundry list of reasons why Harrison underwhelmed in his rookie season, but we need to contextualize his performance. Harrison was the WR29 overall and WR42 in half-PPR points per game (PPG). While it was underwhelming, it shouldn’t be considered a failure. He fell well short of the rookie season we were expecting, but it wasn’t a terrible output — nearly 900 yards and eight touchdowns. However, the volume was below expectations.
A 14.2 average depth of target (aDOT) certainly didn’t do him any favors. He had 116 targets, catching just 62 of them — an abysmal catch rate despite not having a significant drop rate. On the other hand, McBride had a whopping 147 targets, and the Cardinals leaned on the ground game. Essentially, it wasn’t Harrison; it was the Cardinals.
Arizona can’t move forward that way. The offense simply wasn’t efficient and needs to increase Harrison’s involvement to be a bigger focal point if they want to compete with higher-end offenses. Harrison showcased extreme upside last year with several impressive performances, including his 130-yard, two-touchdown game. He is poised for a leap in 2025.
Ricky Pearsall (WR – SF)
Ricky Pearsall’s rookie season got off to a very understandable slow start, but we finally saw him ascend at the end of the season. Pearsall finished off the season in Weeks 17 and 18 with WR8 and WR14 performances in half-PPR, totalling 14 receptions for over 200 yards and two touchdowns. The 49ers’ 2024 first-round pick is in the perfect position to move into the immediate No. 1 WR role.
The 49ers’ receiving corps is gutted. Deebo Samuel is a Washington Commander. Brandon Aiyuk isn’t even close to coming back. Kyle Shanahan recently spoke on Aiyuk’s injury timeline and said it could be Week 6… or Week 5… or Week 10 (I’m not exaggerating). One thing is very clear: The 49ers will heavily rely on Pearsall and George Kittle in Week 1, with no clear timeline on Jauan Jennings‘ calf injury.
Pearsall dealt with a mild hamstring injury earlier in organized team activities (OTAs) but returned to health and has formed a strong connection with Brock Purdy. The 49ers’ offense relies on efficiency in the pass game, producing high outputs in terms of yardage on lower-than-average attempts. Strong, reliable receivers are the cornerstone. Pearsall fits perfectly in that mold, profiling as a versatile, high-volume receiver. A Year 2 breakout is a natural progression for him. Of the three receivers in this list, Pearsall is the biggest bargain at his average draft position (ADP).
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