Great power hitters often tend to hit their home runs in waves and there are often indicators before a HR streak begins, like when the ball starts to jump off the bat. Mariners third baseman Eugenio Suarez is only hitting .176 with two home runs in 18 games since joining Seattle at the trade deadline, but there are clear signs he’s starting to get comfortable. He went 3-for-4 on Tuesday with two recorded exit velocities of 107 mph or higher, and he’s hit five balls with exit velocities of 104 or higher in his last 18 plate appearances.
On Wednesday, he’ll match up with Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo, and Suarez has homered once every 10.6 at-bats against left-handed pitching this season. He’s priced at +400 in the MLB home run odds today, providing tremendous value, which is why he’s one of our top MLB home runs picks. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest bet365 bonus code to receive $150 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 wager, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 56.9 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after nailing Cody Bellinger (+450) to homer on Tuesday, and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Wednesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog and also see the model’s MLB picks for Blue Jays vs. Pirates and Mariners vs. Phillies.
Best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, August 20:
MLB Best Home Run Bets 8/20
For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.
Eugenio Suarez, Mariners (+400, BetMGM)
Suarez has struggled since joining the Mariners prior to the trade deadline, but he may be starting to get things going after a 3-4 day with two doubles yesterday. He’s hitting just .171 against left-handed pitchers, but interestingly, his HR rate is slightly higher per at-bat against lefties despite hitting .260 with 27 HRs against right-handed pitchers this season. Jesus Luzardo has given up 13 HRs this season—all to right-handed hitters. Righties have a .770 OPS against Luzardo compared to just .476 for lefties. The model loves this matchup for Suarez, and we set his line around +170 to hit a HR. Use the latest BetMGM promo code to get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses:
Jose Ramirez, Guardians (+400, DraftKings)
We were one day late on Ramirez. We had him on Monday to homer and he didn’t, but he did go deep in yesterday’s game. Ramirez now has 21 of his 25 HRs this season against right-handed pitchers, and he’s facing RHP Brandon Pfaadt, who has a relatively high 1.5 HR/9 allowed rate in his career. Getting +400 is too good to pass up here, and we would set Ramirez’s line closer to +300 to homer. Use the latest DraftKings promo code with this bet and get $200 in bonus bets instantly as well as over $200 off on NFL Sunday Ticket as a new user:
Brandon Lowe, Rays (+475, BetMGM)
Lowe was pulled from yesterday’s game in the 5th inning, but speculation is that the Rays made the move because the game was out of hand—not due to injury. Lowe has crushed RHPs this season, hitting .292 with 21 of his 24 HRs against righties. He’s facing a rookie RHP today in what’s expected to be hitter-friendly weather in Tampa. We set Lowe’s line around +350 to homer, making this a strong value with the listed price at BetMGM — where you can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first wager loses:
Where to bet MLB props on Wednesday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Wednesday:
More MLB picks for Wednesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Wednesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 102-95-2 roll (+1440) on MLB picks.