Ponnaiya’s prediction: Walker’s glass jaw is no match for Zhang’s powerful striking.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Zhang Mingyang celebrates his KO victory against Brendson Ribeiro during UFC 298.
Johnny Walker faces off against Zhang Mingyang in the headline event at UFC Fight Night this Saturday.
Zhang is currently the No. 14-ranked light heavyweight contender, while Walker is one spot ahead of him. That said, UFC odds have Walker installed as a massive +255 underdog, with the “Mountain Tiger” Zhang coming back at -350.
Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang predictions for August 23 from the Shanghai Indoor Stadium in China.
Walker vs Zhang prediction and best bet
Fight analysis
Don’t be fooled by Zhang Mingyang’s 19-6 record, since the majority of his defeats came as a teenager. He has won 12 fights in a row and earned a UFC contract by starching Tuco Tokkos in the first round as a +400 underdog at Road to The UFC in 2022.
Since then, Zhang has picked up three straight Performance of the Night bonuses by knocking out Brendson Ribeiro, Ozzy Diaz, and, most recently, Anthony Smith.
The 27-year-old is a high-volume striker with an aggressive style and vicious power standing up and on the mat.
He’ll be a matchup nightmare for Johnny Walker, who is 4-6 in his last 10 fights while coming off back-to-back KO losses. Walker is a wild striker with an unorthodox style, but he’s hittable and has a glass jaw.
It isn’t just that Walker has six losses by KO/TKO in his career; it’s that he gets knocked out cold and has flopped around unconscious. Concussions have a cumulative effect, which makes it likely that Walker will continue to get KO’d in highlight-reel fashion until he retires.
Walker is being fed to an up-and-coming young fighter here, and the Mountain Tiger will eat.
Best bet analysis
It isn’t easy to find betting value in this matchup, with everybody expecting the hard-hitting Zhang to starch the chinny Walker. Zhang is -245 to win by KO/TKO but we can get a much better number by backing him to win inside the first round.
All 19 of Zhang’s career wins have come by first-round finish. Meanwhile, Walker has been stopped in the opening round four times in his career, including his previous loss to Volkan Oezdemir last year.
Expect Zhang to be aggressive in front of his home crowd and quickly put away the reckless Walker.
Johnny Walker vs Zhang Mingyang odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Walker | Zhang |
| To win outright | +300 | -400 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +540 | -245 |
| To win by decision | +1050 | +975 |
| To win by submission | +975 | +1700 |
| Draw | +4000 | +4000 |
Odds as of 8-22.
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Johnny Walker vs Zhang Mingyang tale of the tape
| Walker | Zhang | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 27 |
| 6-foot-5 | Height | 6-foot-2 |
| 205 lbs | Weight Class | 205 |
| 82 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 21-9 | Record | 19-6 |
| 16 | Wins by KO | 13 |
| 3 | Wins by submission | 6 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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