MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Sunday (8/24)

We’re looking at an early DFS slate today. DraftKings has eight games that are beginning at 11:35 Eastern Time. FanDuel has a slate with the same eight games.

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (8/24)

• This is a slate where I’m drawn to the mid-tier options as upside plays. Kevin Gausman has a 2.63 ERA with a 3.63 FIP over his previous 10 starts. The run prevention has been consistent, but the strikeouts have been erratic. In that stretch of games, he has four games with four strikeouts or fewer. He also has had four games with eight or more strikeouts. Today’s matchup is against a Marlins team that has struck out 20% of the time this season.
• Another erratic option is Jack Flaherty. Unlike Gausman, the strikeouts have been consistent. Over Flaherty’s last 10 starts, he has only one game with fewer than six strikeouts. In that span, he has a 4.05 ERA, but a 2.87 FIP, showing how unlucky he has been. His last start was his highest scoring game of the season, striking out nine batters without an earned run allowed over seven innings.
• Gavin Williams’ inconsistency is explainable. He leads the American League in walks with 68 in 133 innings. With that many baserunners, there is always the potential for a disaster. You can see it in his game log. Over his last nine starts, he has five games of 22+ DraftKings points but three with 10 or fewer points.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies Projected Lineup (8/24)

• The Philadelphia Phillies have a matchup today against Jake Irvin. It’s been a few months since he last faced the Phillies, but when he did, he allowed six earned runs over six innings. That’s not all that different than how he has pitched recently. He has given up five or more earned runs in four of his last six starts, including in his last two starts.
• There are a lot of Phillies who have had success against Irvin. Let’s start with Bryson Stott. He’s been hot recently with a 1.044 OPS over the previous two weeks. He is 7-for-18 against Irvin in his career with a pair of home runs.
• J.T. Realmuto has a similar profile to Stott. Over the previous two weeks, his OPS is nearly identical (1.098). While he doesn’t have the power history against Irvin, he also has had success, going 6-for-15 against Irvin, with a home run.
• One of the more affordable Phillies hitters is Max Kepler. His first season with the Phillies hasn’t gone according to plan. He has settled into a platoon role against right-handed pitchers, whom he has 26 of his 30 extra-base hits against. Kepler is only 2-for-7 against Irvin in his career, but both hits were home runs.

Atlanta Braves Projected Lineup (8/24)

• The Atlanta Braves’ offense has finally begun clicking. Over the last two weeks, only the Milwaukee Brewers have scored more runs than the Braves. They have a matchup today against left-handed pitcher David Peterson. Peterson has been excellent this season with a 3.35 FIP, but it’s hard to ignore the track record of success the Braves have had against him.
• Let’s start with Matt Olson. Typically, we look to avoid lefty versus lefty matchups, but Olson has a .749 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Looking at his previous success against Peterson, he is 5-for-21 against the Mets starter, with four of those hits being home runs.
• Marcell Ozuna has had similar success against Peterson, going 4-for-21 against him in his career. Two of those four hits were home runs.
• Other Braves who have had success against Peterson include Ronald Acuna Jr. and Jurickson Profar. Acuna is 6-for-20 against Peterson in his career with a home run. Profar has only faced Peterson eight times in his career, but he has five hits. While none of those five hits have been home runs, two were doubles.

Core Studs

• The Mets were almost a stacking option today with their matchup against Bryce Elder. One Met you should have in your lineup is Francisco Lindor. He is 6-for-10 against Elder in his career with two doubles and two home runs.
• This has been a bounce-back season for Bo Bichette, who is hitting .298. He has 56 extra-base hits this season, with 40 coming against right-handed pitchers. Bichette has a matchup today against right-handed pitcher Eury Perez.
• Willy Adames’ comfort at American Family Field in Milwaukee is obvious, even as a visiting player. He hit two home runs in the opening game of the series. Adames gets a matchup against a pitcher he is familiar with in Brandon Woodruff.

Value Plays/Punts

• Rookie Kyle Teel is quietly off to a great start to his career. The expectation is that today’s starting pitcher opposing him will be right-hander Taj Bradley. Teel has an .814 OPS against right-handed pitchers, and only a .590 OPS against left-handed pitchers.
• Brett Baty has a 1.207 OPS over the past two weeks. He has a matchup today against Bryce Elder, who has a 6.29 ERA, which is close to his expected ERA of 5.24.
• Cam Smith has a left-handed pitcher opposing him today in Trevor Rogers. Rogers has been excellent on the mound this season, but so has Smith against left-handed pitchers, with an .882 OPS.

We’re looking at an early DFS slate today. DraftKings has eight games that are beginning at 11:35 Eastern Time. FanDuel has a slate with the same eight games.

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (8/24)

• This is a slate where I’m drawn to the mid-tier options as upside plays. Kevin Gausman has a 2.63 ERA with a 3.63 FIP over his previous 10 starts. The run prevention has been consistent, but the strikeouts have been erratic. In that stretch of games, he has four games with four strikeouts or fewer. He also has had four games with eight or more strikeouts. Today’s matchup is against a Marlins team that has struck out 20% of the time this season.
• Another erratic option is Jack Flaherty. Unlike Gausman, the strikeouts have been consistent. Over Flaherty’s last 10 starts, he has only one game with fewer than six strikeouts. In that span, he has a 4.05 ERA, but a 2.87 FIP, showing how unlucky he has been. His last start was his highest scoring game of the season, striking out nine batters without an earned run allowed over seven innings.
• Gavin Williams’ inconsistency is explainable. He leads the American League in walks with 68 in 133 innings. With that many baserunners, there is always the potential for a disaster. You can see it in his game log. Over his last nine starts, he has five games of 22+ DraftKings points but three with 10 or fewer points.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies Projected Lineup (8/24)

• The Philadelphia Phillies have a matchup today against Jake Irvin. It’s been a few months since he last faced the Phillies, but when he did, he allowed six earned runs over six innings. That’s not all that different than how he has pitched recently. He has given up five or more earned runs in four of his last six starts, including in his last two starts.
• There are a lot of Phillies who have had success against Irvin. Let’s start with Bryson Stott. He’s been hot recently with a 1.044 OPS over the previous two weeks. He is 7-for-18 against Irvin in his career with a pair of home runs.
• J.T. Realmuto has a similar profile to Stott. Over the previous two weeks, his OPS is nearly identical (1.098). While he doesn’t have the power history against Irvin, he also has had success, going 6-for-15 against Irvin, with a home run.
• One of the more affordable Phillies hitters is Max Kepler. His first season with the Phillies hasn’t gone according to plan. He has settled into a platoon role against right-handed pitchers, whom he has 26 of his 30 extra-base hits against. Kepler is only 2-for-7 against Irvin in his career, but both hits were home runs.

Atlanta Braves Projected Lineup (8/24)

• The Atlanta Braves’ offense has finally begun clicking. Over the last two weeks, only the Milwaukee Brewers have scored more runs than the Braves. They have a matchup today against left-handed pitcher David Peterson. Peterson has been excellent this season with a 3.35 FIP, but it’s hard to ignore the track record of success the Braves have had against him.
• Let’s start with Matt Olson. Typically, we look to avoid lefty versus lefty matchups, but Olson has a .749 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Looking at his previous success against Peterson, he is 5-for-21 against the Mets starter, with four of those hits being home runs.
• Marcell Ozuna has had similar success against Peterson, going 4-for-21 against him in his career. Two of those four hits were home runs.
• Other Braves who have had success against Peterson include Ronald Acuna Jr. and Jurickson Profar. Acuna is 6-for-20 against Peterson in his career with a home run. Profar has only faced Peterson eight times in his career, but he has five hits. While none of those five hits have been home runs, two were doubles.

Core Studs

• The Mets were almost a stacking option today with their matchup against Bryce Elder. One Met you should have in your lineup is Francisco Lindor. He is 6-for-10 against Elder in his career with two doubles and two home runs.
• This has been a bounce-back season for Bo Bichette, who is hitting .298. He has 56 extra-base hits this season, with 40 coming against right-handed pitchers. Bichette has a matchup today against right-handed pitcher Eury Perez.
• Willy Adames’ comfort at American Family Field in Milwaukee is obvious, even as a visiting player. He hit two home runs in the opening game of the series. Adames gets a matchup against a pitcher he is familiar with in Brandon Woodruff.

Value Plays/Punts

• Rookie Kyle Teel is quietly off to a great start to his career. The expectation is that today’s starting pitcher opposing him will be right-hander Taj Bradley. Teel has an .814 OPS against right-handed pitchers, and only a .590 OPS against left-handed pitchers.
• Brett Baty has a 1.207 OPS over the past two weeks. He has a matchup today against Bryce Elder, who has a 6.29 ERA, which is close to his expected ERA of 5.24.
• Cam Smith has a left-handed pitcher opposing him today in Trevor Rogers. Rogers has been excellent on the mound this season, but so has Smith against left-handed pitchers, with an .882 OPS.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Shohei Ohtani (DH – LAD): 0.5 Hits — Higher

Shohei Ohtani has yet to have a hit in this series against the Padres. He has not had a three-game stretch all season where he hasn’t had at least one hit. Ohtani is 5-for-14 against Nick Pivetta, today’s opposing pitcher, in his career.

Aaron Judge (OF, DH – NYY): 1.5 Hits — Lower

It feels odd to fade Aaron Judge, but he is in a prolonged slump that can no longer be ignored. He has exceeded 1.5 hits in just two of his last 24 games.

Spencer Arrighetti (SP – HOU): 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed — Higher

We’re still dealing with a small sample with Spencer Arrighetti due to his injury. However, it appears he is much more comfortable pitching at home than on the road.

In his two home starts, Arrighetti has an ERA of 2.45, but on the road, his ERA is over 10.00, as he has given up five earned runs in each of his three road starts. Today’s matchup is in Baltimore.

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