It’s often said that defense wins championships on the NFL gridiron, but in fantasy football leagues, that couldn’t be further from the truth.
In fact, other than in leagues that deliberately amp up defensive scoring (something I do not recommend, due to the position’s statistical volatility), there are few easier ways to waste draft resources than by paying up for a team defense. Nevertheless, fantasy managers are still doing exactly that this year, as three D/STs find themselves as top-100 overall picks on average in ESPN leagues.
To refresh the facts I annually cite in this space, here’s compelling evidence from 2024 as to why this is a foolhardy strategy:
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The Denver Broncos were the top-scoring fantasy D/ST, totaling 166 points. To put that into perspective, 101 skill position players and four kickers scored at least as many.
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The difference between the Nos. 1 and 11 D/STs was 65 fantasy points. That was less than the difference between the Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers, Nos. 1 and 5 quarterbacks and Nos. 1 and 6 running backs.
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The first five D/STs selected on average — the Cleveland Browns (84th overall), Dallas Cowboys (91st), Baltimore Ravens (99th), San Francisco 49ers (101st) and New York Jets (103rd) — finished 27th, 16th, 10th, 21st and 18th in scoring at the position.
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Conversely, the top five scoring defenses — the Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans and Philadelphia Eagles — had average ADPs of 18.2 at the position and 194.0 overall.
In order to maximize the output you get from your D/ST lineup slot, while doing it at minimal draft day cost, piece together the position by picking the best matchups from week to week, rather than the most talented units on paper. While this does involve more “homework” (more weekly research and attention to your league’s free agent list), the scoring payoff is more than worth the extra effort.
Had you employed such a strategy in 2024, you’d have been considerably more successful than had you burned a pick in the first 12 rounds on a single D/ST. For example, had you started the defense that faced the Browns every week, you’d have squeezed 203 fantasy points out of your D/ST lineup spot, or 37 more than the league-leading Broncos scored. (That also excludes whatever score you might’ve squeezed out of another defense during the Browns’ Week 10 bye.) The Browns weren’t alone in being an opposing-matchups success story, as D/STs that faced the Tennessee Titans every week last year would’ve totaled 193 points.
Even if we realistically selected the most widely available D/ST (we’ll say available in at least 75% of ESPN leagues that week) that faced the best matchup (using seasonal fantasy points against) each week, that combination would’ve totaled 146 points, a total exceeded by only two individual D/STs in 2024.
Granted, this all assumes that you’re able to accurately identify a good and bad D/ST matchup, and no fantasy manager craves extra homework. That’s what this column is for: This D/ST Road Map helps save you a lot of that research time by providing you a head start on matchups analysis, streaming candidates and draft-day targets that probably won’t cost you a dime.
For this column, only the first four weeks are analyzed, for the simple reason that the NFL changes swiftly and dramatically, with factors such as a team’s head coach, defensive coordinator, defensive scheme, defensive personnel, schedule and the injuries and transactions that affect the roster likely to shift the results within that time span. Annually, we tend to have a far greater feel for a defense’s true talent level through four weeks of a season than at its onset. The Road Map will then get a refresh, and will again after every four completed weeks during the regular season (so, following Weeks 4, 8 and 12) to help you steer through the entire year.
Addressing the matchups themselves first, consider targeting or avoiding these opposing offenses as part of your overall D/ST strategy:
Top 10 offenses to exploit
New Orleans Saints
Cleveland Browns
New York Giants
New York Jets
Las Vegas Raiders
Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots
Jacksonville Jaguars
Top 10 offenses to avoid
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Commanders
Kansas City Chiefs
Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Chargers
Assuming the Pittsburgh Steelers, the earliest-drafted D/ST in ESPN leagues thus far despite our analysts’ collective No. 5 positional ranking, go at a premium in your league — meaning earlier than with one of your final two picks — the Cardinals are the bargain defense to select initially. They showed modest improvement last season, going from next to last in fantasy points in 2023 to 19th, and in addition to boasting a pair of standout safeties in Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson, they strengthened their defensive line with the additions of Calais Campbell and Josh Sweat, then spent five consecutive draft picks on defensive players to bolster the unit.
It’s the Cardinals’ schedule during the season’s first six weeks that makes them the final-round D/ST to get. They begin 2025 with a dream combination of matchups with the Saints and Panthers, play four of their first five games against teams in my list of top-10 favorable matchups (above), and in their first 11 contests, they don’t face a single member of my top-10 matchups to avoid list. There’s a borderline chance that the Cardinals could become a locked-in D/ST until their Week 8 bye. But at the very least, they’re aligned to start your year off right.
Dangerous D/ST to draft: Ravens
The most successful fantasy defense of the 21st century, the Ravens got off to a sluggish start in Zach Orr’s first season as defensive coordinator, only to come on strong toward the end with a third-best 69 fantasy points in the final eight weeks. They have since boosted their secondary with the selection of safety Malaki Starks, who supplements the trio of standout defenders in Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey and Roquan Smith.
That said, the Ravens’ defense has one of the toughest schedules in September of any team in the league, beginning with a must-avoid road assignment against the Bills, and also including matchups against the Lions and Chiefs. Things don’t get easier for the Ravens until after their Week 7 bye.
D/ST week-by-week road map
Week 1: As mentioned above, the Cardinals (@NO) are the Week 1 matchups standout among those being modestly drafted, as the opposing Saints have the shakiest quarterback situation in the league. For leagues that draft defenses especially heavily — I have a local league where nearly half of the managers select a backup — both the Bengals (@CLE) and Commanders (NYG) should also be in for strong defensive starts to 2025.
Avoid: Again, the Ravens (@BUF) have the most no-can-do matchup of Week 1, on “Sunday Night Football.” Considering that game has the week’s highest early over/under, the opposing Bills (BAL) should also be avoided. The same applies for 2024 darlings the Packers (DET), who scored four total fantasy points in their two meetings with their division rival.
Week 2: The Saints’ offense, projected to be one of the worst, due primarily to the combination at quarterback of Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who totaled six interceptions and 25 sacks in their seven combined starts, and rookie Tyler Shough, are one to watch, as they play non-elite defenses on paper in the early weeks. The 49ers (@NO) draw that advantageous matchup this week, while Cardinals (CAR) managers can confidently keep them around for at least another game. The Cowboys (NYG) and Chargers (@LV), who scored 22 and 19 combined fantasy points against those division rivals in 2024, also stand out.
Avoid: A Super Bowl LIX rematch between the Chiefs (PHI) and Eagles (@KC) is one to avoid defensively on either side, especially with the two teams totaling 62 points in their championship match and neither defense markedly upgrading its roster during the offseason. The Jets (BUF) and Packers (WSH) are also D/STs better left to the sidelines.
Week 3: The Seahawks (NO) have been generally regarded a top-10 D/ST entering the year, but in the event they wind up available in your league by this week, they draw the coveted Saints matchup. Beyond that, the Chiefs (@NYG) rebound in terms of matchup quality, while the Buccaneers (NYJ) and Indianapolis Colts (@TEN) could step up with big matchups-fueled fantasy point totals.
Avoid: The Ravens (DET) certainly have a lot of big-ticket September games this year, as their “Monday Night Football” meeting with the Lions (@BAL) is another to avoid on both sides. That game has a chance to have the highest over/under in Week 3. The Vikings (CIN) should also be avoided, especially after they totaled only 24 fantasy points in their five toughest 2024 matchups (going by opponents’ total fantasy points allowed).
Week 4: The Bills (NO) are another D/ST on the fringe of the top 10 entering the year, but if they were let go in Week 1 and perhaps are still lingering on the free agent list, scoop them up. Failing that, the Chargers (@NYG), Miami Dolphins (NYJ) and Chicago Bears (@LV) have the week’s most advantageous matchups among units that should remain widely available.
Avoid: The Ravens’ (@KC) streak of challenging matchups continues, as they take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (BAL), with neither defense a recommended play for that game. The Ravens, by the way, have never delivered a start-worthy fantasy point total against the Chiefs during the Mahomes era, totaling zero fantasy points in five meetings with no individual game worth more than three. The Broncos (CIN) are also in for a rough matchup.