Expect Carlos Rodon to deliver in more ways than one, as we’re backing the New York southpaw to generate plenty of swings and misses tonight.
Photo By – Imagn Images. New York Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon (55).
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees will finish off a series this evening in the Bronx as New York looks to salvage a win from the four-game set.
We are solely targeting Yankees for tonight, so join me as I break down my Sunday Night Baseball player props for August 24.
Make sure to also check out Neil Parker’s Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions before first pitch!
Red Sox vs Yankees Sunday Night Baseball props
Rodon o6.5 strikeouts (-130)- McMahon to record a hit (-130)
- Chisholm Jr. to record a hit (-141)
Prop #1: Carlos Rodon Over 6.5 strikeouts
-130 at Caesars
In desperate need of a lift to break out of the recent dominance by their rival, the New York Yankees will turn to the arm that has been pitching like the ace of the staff for the last month.
My personal projection and The Bat X were aligned at 7.0 on Carlos Rodon’s strikeout prop, but that number could be low given the expected length I could see him providing.
While the Boston Red Sox offense has shown up in this series, the strikeouts have picked up over the last month. This holds particularly true against southpaws, as the K% has risen roughly 5% in that period.
Given all the situational elements at play here, along with the Bat X projection, I feel comfortable backing this number.
Prop #2: Ryan McMahon to record a hit
-130 at Caesars
I don’t usually back Ryan McMahon to do something offensively, but few starting pitchers throw the sweeper as much as Dustin May does.
And wouldn’t you know it, this is one of the rare pitches that the newly acquired Yankee shines against offensively.
May will enter this game throwing the sweeper 40% of the time, and it’s a pitch that McMahon leads all Yankees in for key metrics such as slugging, hard-hit rate, and expected batting average.
Prop #3: Jazz Chisholm Jr. to record a hit
-141 at Caesars
Unlike McMahon, Jazz Chisholm Jr. has no head-to-head history against Dustin May in his career. But like McMahon, Chisholm is well-positioned to take advantage of the pitch mix he’ll see.
The Yanks’ second baseman also fares strongly against the sweeper, with most hitting metrics coming in directly behind McMahon.
In addition, Chisholm has had a great season against the sinker, which is May’s secondary pitch. He enters tonight with a batting average and expected batting average against the pitch that places him in the 90th percentile of baseball.
Chisholm’s underrated power often gets overlooked, but he’s well capable of attacking May’s hard-hit rate, which sits in the bottom 15 percent of the league. This is a pretty nice discount on a strong hitter to get a knock.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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