This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Don’t forget to check out “The Case FOR Ashton Jeanty” for the opposing view.
Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, we are here to paint the picture of Ashton Jeanty as the riskiest early-round fantasy RBs in recent memory. The defense will tell you he’s a future star destined for greatness thanks to being drafted sixth overall. But many factors tell a different story, including:
- History
- Organizational Precedent
- Market Sentiment
- Positional Value
- Competition Level
The evidence will show that for Mr. Jeanty to justify his current fantasy price, he would need to do what only a handful of RBs in NFL history have ever done: step on the field as a rookie and immediately deliver Hall of Fame-level production. That bar is nearly impossible to clear, yet fantasy managers must pay a late first-round or early second-round price as if it’s a certainty.
Today, the prosecution will prove without a reasonable doubt that Mr. Jeanty is guilty of being overvalued.
Evidence
Exhibit A: Historical Precedent
Since 1970, there have been 184 RBs selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Of that sample, only eight scored more than 240 fantasy points as a rookie. Why is 240 critical? Because 240 = 15 fantasy PPG (in a 16-game season). Anything less can be chalked up as a bust because early drafted RBs need to generate 240+ PPR points when spending this much draft capital to ensure a successful season.
That means only 4% of rookie RBs taken in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft paid off as early fantasy picks. The ones that did are all-time greats and are listed in the table below. For Jeanty to return value, he needs to be a Hall-of-Famer on his first snap.
| Name | Draft Pick | Year |
| Saquon Barkley | 2nd | 2018 |
| Doug Martin | 31st | 2012 |
| Edgerrin James | 4th | 1999 |
| Marshall Faulk | 2nd | 1994 |
| Eric Dickerson | 2nd | 1983 |
| George Rogers | 1st | 1981 |
| Billy Sims | 1st | 1980 |
| Ottis Anderson | 8th | 1979 |
Exhibit B: Raiders RB
Supporters may claim that “this year is different.” But isn’t that what everyone says, every time? The Raiders have demonstrated an inability to turn their RBs into consistent fantasy assets.
- Only one rookie RB ever cleared 700 rushing yards: Josh Jacobs (1,150 in 2019).
- Only one rookie RB ever cleared 350 receiving yards: Marcus Allen (401 in 1982).
The harshest truth of all: no rookie RB has ever delivered both 700+ rushing yards and 350+ receiving yards as a Raider. Trying to break a 50+ year trend is a tall order.
Exhibit C: Declining ADP
We now turn to the jury: the fantasy market itself. These are the ones taking action to increase or decrease a player’s draft capital via ADP. In Best Ball drafts, where managers chase upside and begin drafting earlier than in other formats, Mr. Jeanty has been on a steady decline.
- April 30th: commanded a first-round price at 9.3 ADP.
- August 28th: early second-round selection with a 13.2 ADP.
This decline is not a coincidence. The early wave of hype soured to skepticism. Best Ball drafters plant their flags months before the redraft season begins. Backing off and dropping his ADP backs our case against Mr. Jeanty.
| Month | Best Ball ADP |
| April | 9 |
| May | 9.3 |
| June | 10.4 |
| July | 11.5 |
| August | 13.2 |
Exhibit D: The Decline of the Bell Cow RB
This exhibit points not to Jeanty alone, but to the position he plays. The RB market continues to erode year after year, with teams increasingly reluctant to invest early draft capital due to the shorter career arcs of RBs. The average NFL RB plays only 2.57 years. Plus, it is easier than ever to find talent later in the draft. The NFL has spoken: RBs are replaceable assets, not cornerstone investments.
Exhibit E: The Mountain West Problem
The defense will point to Mr. Jeanty’s dominance as proof that he is NFL-ready. But context is key. Boise State played the 66th-hardest schedule in the FBS in 2024. Softer than almost all Power 4 mid-tier teams face in a given year.
The pipeline to NFL talent tells the same story. In the 2025 NFL Draft, the SEC alone produced 72 draft picks, while the Mountain West managed only six. Compare that to the Big Ten (71), ACC (42), and Big 12 (31), and the disparity speaks for itself. The production came largely against players who will never come close to an NFL field.
Witness Testimonies
The Fiesta Bowl – December 31st, 2024
When Mr. Jeanty finally faced elite competition in 2024, the results were far from dominant. Against Penn State, he was bottled up for 30 carries, 104 yards, and added just three catches for 22 yards. Volume helped get him over the 15 PPR point threshold in this one, but is LV willing to give the young man 33 opportunities any given Sunday? Was this a bad game? Or will this be how he performs against stronger defensive units?
Raiders Offensive Line
Even the Raiders’ own offensive line would sweat testifying for Jeanty’s breakout chance. Ranked just 18th overall by Pro Football Focus, this unit may struggle clearing paths and creating holes for a young player against some of the greatest athletes on the planet. An average line might be serviceable for a veteran with proven vision and patience, but adjusting to NFL speed behind subpar Buffet Busters could end poorly.
Questionable Receiving Refinement
Mr. Jeanty’s ground production was impressive, as he doubled his rushing yards from 1,347 to 2,601 in his last year. But why did the receiving game not get an upgrade? 2023 brought 43 receptions for 569 yards (47.4 per game), while 2024 brought 23 receptions for 138 yards (9.9 per game).
The concerns deepened under investigation. A 9.1% drop rate was the fifth-highest for the class. On top of that, Mr. Jeanty ranked 27th out of 31 RBs at the NFL Combine in yards per route run (.54).
The testimony is clear: the receiving skillset could be a liability as much as it could be a weapon. If the path to fantasy dominance hinges on a three-down role, hands and route running may prevent him from stepping into it.
Cross Examination
Some may ponder, “But the Raiders – a real NFL organization – believe Mr. Jeanty is worth the 6th overall pick. He must be great?” The issue is how often the Raiders squander or mismanage premium picks like Henry Ruggs, Damon Arnette, and Clelin Ferrell. Some teams’ talent valuation is better than others.
Top 10 RB picks are also volatile:
Closing Arguments
The evidence is overwhelming. All exhibits, testimonies, and cross-examinations agree that the verdict is undeniable: Ashton Jeanty is guilty of being one of the most overhyped, overpriced rookie RBs in fantasy football. To draft him at cost is to bet not only against the odds, but against history itself.
The prosecution rests.