The race to the postseason continues as August is nearly wrapped up, and all 30 MLB teams are in action on Friday, with some top series including Mariners at Guardians, Braves at Phillies, Brewers at Blue Jays and Tigers at Royals.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 21 of the 2025 MLB season at a profitable 31-23 on top-rated MLB money line picks. The Inside the Lines team has locked in on its most favorable props for Friday’s games. Here is their best play.
Best MLB player prop for Friday, Aug. 29
Sportsbook promos for MLB player props on Friday, Aug. 29
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Best MLB prop on Friday
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts
Oneil Cruz finally got us a stolen base on Thursday after over a month without one. Interestingly, we posted the value when Cruz was at +290 on bet365 and FanDuel. By first pitch, you could find him as low as +240 but as high as +350. We advised taking it at +320, so it’s worth it to wait and see, shop around, etc. We are not pushing our luck with Cruz again tonight as he is only priced at +361 in our model (+225 yesterday) to swipe another bag.
Instead, we look to Cruz’s Pirates teammate. We typically fade Paul Skenes versus the money line and on strikeouts, but not tonight. As of Friday morning, DraftKings is charging just -135 on Over 6.5 strikeouts, which is solidly better than the -150 or more that most other sportsbooks are charging. The model has around a 67% chance Skenes records 7+ strikeouts, and -135 implies 57.4% likelihood of that happening. Skenes has a higher strikeout average in road starts versus at home (6.9 to 6.5) and comes in on a 5-1 Over stretch. This season, other high-strikeout pitchers who average 6.5 or more per start have gone 7-3 to this Over against Boston.
MLB home runs, stolen bases, strikeouts cheat sheet
The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of the team’s picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. The system is simple: We take the strongest SportsLine Model projected values vs. the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases, lines move in our direction, so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value.
The table below shows today’s projected leading home run, stolen base and strikeout leaders. We include the projection, and for HRs and SBs, the money line we’d set for YES HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book’s line, and if your book’s line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player), then you would want to consider that bet.