When it comes to the MVP cases of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, we soon might find out whether voter fatigue is a thing.
It shouldn’t be. The voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America should judge each candidate solely on his merits. But with Cal Raleigh representing a viable alternative to Judge in the AL and Kyle Schwarber making a strong run at Ohtani in the NL, would anyone be surprised if human nature came into play and voters were tempted to do something different?
Judge has won the award two of the last three years, Ohtani three of the last four. And the only reason Ohtani is not working on five straight is because he finished second in the AL race in 2022, when Judge hit 62 home runs.
This season, Judge and Ohtani still might be the favorites in their respective league, possessing certain statistical advantages over their biggest challengers. But nearly a month remains in the season. Both races easily could go down to the end.
Fans at Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank understandably chanted “MVP” Thursday night when Schwarber crushed a record-tying four home runs, increased his season total to 49 and took over the NL lead from Ohtani.
Fans in Seattle are just as impassioned about Raleigh, whose 50 home runs are a record for a player who primarily plays catcher — a position where Raleigh is so adept, he won the AL Platinum Glove last season.
Keep in mind, Ohtani and Judge derive no direct benefit in the voting from playing in the nation’s two largest markets. The balloting for Baseball Writers Association of America awards includes two voters from each AL or NL city. This is not the electoral college. A vote from Kansas City carries just as much weight as a vote from New York.
Another thing: The MVP vote is inherently subjective. The award is not for Player of the Year. It is not for highest WAR. And for goodness’ sake, it should not be for best narrative. Voters establish their own standards. And both MVP races this season feature apples-to-oranges comparisons that could make the balloting rather complicated.
Start with the AL, where Judge leads Raleigh by 168 points in OPS — roughly the same gap that exists between Raleigh and Kyle Manzardo.
Judge’s OPS is only five points lower than it was in his 62-homer season. His .440 on-base percentage is 89 points higher than Raleigh’s. Even though he has hit nine fewer homers, his .666 slugging percentage is 79 points higher. For what it’s worth, Raleigh is 14-for-17 in stolen bases (pretty good for a catcher!) while Judge is 8-for-11.
As the Yankees and Mariners both vie for playoff spots, Aaron Judge will be trying to solidify his third MVP in four seasons. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
OK, but that’s just offense. Certain catching skills (blocking, framing, throwing) are quantifiable. Certain others (game-calling, the handling of a pitching staff) are not. But by virtually all accounts, Raleigh plays the most important defensive position on the field exceedingly well.
Should Raleigh’s elite performance as a catcher erase Judge’s 168-point lead in OPS? Good question — particularly when Judge, an above-average right fielder, hasn’t played the field since July 25 due to a flexor strain in his right elbow, an injury that forced him to miss 10 games. Raleigh has started 129 of the Mariners’ 134 games, all but 31 at catcher. Perhaps not surprisingly, his OPS before the All-Star Game (1.011) was much better than it has been since (.762).
In any case, the statistical contrast between Ohtani and Schwarber should be easier, considering Ohtani is exclusively a DH on the offensive side, and Schwarber practically is too.
The problem, of course, is that Ohtani pitches, too.
Coming off elbow and shoulder surgeries, Ohtani didn’t make his season debut on the mound until June 16. He projects to throw approximately half as many innings as he did when he won his 2021 and 2023 MVPs. Some will nitpick his 4.18 ERA, but he has struck out 44 and walked only seven. His expected ERA is 2.50.
However one might assess Ohtani’s pitching, his contribution to run prevention still should end up significantly greater than Schwarber’s. True, Schwarber thus far has played more innings in left field (66) than Ohtani has pitched (32 1/3). But not even Schwarber would argue that his defense is plus.
The debate will get more interesting if Ohtani falters as a pitcher. Not likely, considering he rebounded from two relatively poor starts Wednesday by striking out a season-high nine in five innings. But not out of the question, either.
Ohtani offensively is not what he was in 2023 and ‘24. In the latter of those seasons he was unable to pitch, and produced a 54-homer, 59-steal tour de force. Even while stealing fewer bases this season, he remains a better base runner than Schwarber. But he and Schwarber are close as hitters — closer than Judge and Raleigh.
Ohtani’s edge in OPS is down to 39 points, 17 points in on-base percentage, 22 in slugging. Schwarber leads the majors with 119 RBIs to Ohtani’s 85, but that’s partly a function of batting order position. Ohtani has led off in all but 10 of his starts. Schwarber has led off only 10 times.
As the end of the season nears, voters will dive even deeper into the metrics. Maybe not WAR, which does not capture the full defensive value of a catcher. But Win Probability Added, which quantifies the percent change in a team’s chances of winning from one offensive event to the next, likely will come into play. Entering Thursday, Ohtani led the majors in that metric by a wide margin. Raleigh was third, barely ahead of Judge. Schwarber was 15th.
Plenty of time remains for voters to get even more granular, and for either or both races to swing one way or the other. But whatever happens in the final month, voters need to isolate this season from those that preceded it.
Four of Judge’s and Ohtani’s five combined MVPs were unanimous. Judge received 28 of 30 first-place votes, with Ohtani getting the other two, in the one that wasn’t. Still, the two superstars should not be penalized for their past dominance. Nor should they be rewarded for it.
The MVP decisions will not be easy. If Judge, Raleigh, Ohtani and Schwarber all perform well in September, the arguments might grow even more intense. But performance, not narrative, must drive the discussion. If Raleigh and/or Schwarber prevail, it should be because of who they are, not who they aren’t.
May the best men win.
(Top photo of Schwarber: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)