Arch Manning’s long-awaited (and much-hyped) 2025 debut turned out to be a showcase instead for defending national champion Ohio State’s defense. Manning, the consensus Heisman favorite entering Week 1, struggled to solve new Buckeyes defensive coordinator Matt Patricia’s scheme. He finished 17-of-30 passing for 170 yards, a late touchdown and an interception — plus 38 yards rushing — in a 14-7 loss.
With or without that performance, Manning’s NFL future was up in the air headed into the season. Though he’s been a popular pick atop early mock drafts, Manning has been considered by many to be more of a 2027 prospect than ’26.
There’s obviously a long way to go, both in this college football season and before next April’s NFL Draft. Still, there’s plenty to unpack coming out of the Longhorns’ opener.
What did Manning’s season debut mean in the eyes of pro scouts? Our NFL Draft experts, Dane Brugler and Nick Baumgardner, break it down.
Instant reaction
Though developmental speed bumps were expected in Columbus, Manning hit a road block against the Buckeyes’ defense. The most impressive aspect of Manning’s tape from his start against Mississippi State last season was his rhythm, but he looked rhythmless Saturday. Aside from a few throws late, everything looked uncomfortable. That isn’t uncommon for an inexperienced player in a tough environment, but even completing simple drag routes was a challenge.
The overreactions will be loud and persistent this week. But Manning’s inconsistent touch and ball placement can be cleaned up once he starts to calm down his reads, which should come with added experience. With San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston (all at home) on Texas’ schedule the next three weeks, respectively, Manning will have plenty of opportunities to rediscover that promising rhythm before the SEC schedule heats up.
Plenty of successful NFL quarterbacks had rough college debuts (see the start of Joe Burrow’s LSU career), and it will be interesting to track Manning’s maturation throughout the season. For now, let’s push pause on the Manning-to-NFL draft talk. — Dane Brugler
ARCH MANNING IS PICKED OFF 😱
The @ohiostatefb defense comes up with another massive play 😤 pic.twitter.com/5yaBXYZrQm
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) August 30, 2025
Part of why Manning looked so good last year was also why we weren’t really sure what to expect Saturday in Columbus — he had two starts, both at home last season, against Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State.
Nothing Manning experienced in 2024 could have prepared him for what he saw in Week 1, both from the crowd at the Horseshoe and on the field from Ohio State’s defense. This was not only Manning’s first college road start, it was basically his first start of real consequence. It didn’t go well. But he might not see a defense this good again all year, even in the SEC.
Patricia did a great job this summer installing and teaching new schemes and concepts, which are different from what we saw from former Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. The Buckeyes did a good job mixing coverage on the backend and mostly were outstanding with their rush stunts on third down. Ohio State lost talent from its national title defense, but it also returned (and added) a ton. Caleb Downs might be the best college player on the planet, while Kenyatta Jackson Jr., Beau Atkinson, Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese, Davison Igbinosun and Jermaine Mathews Jr. are all legit 2026 draft prospects.
Manning turfed his first attempt of the game, a rollout throw he’s made before, and seemed nervous on nearly every snap the rest of the first half and for most of the third quarter. He was late on throws he’s usually not late on, missed open reads and was shaky across the board.
He also finished the football game — not with a win, but with a response that looked much more like the stuff we saw last year in low-pressure situations. Manning delivered a terrific ball on a 32-yard touchdown to Parker Livingstone, then later had probably the best throw you’ll see all weekend — a 30-yarder to Jack Endries that he dropped into a bucket few QBs can hit.
So, there were flashes. But there were also moments in which he looked like a first-year starter who’s never had to read a truly talented defense for 60 minutes. Manning made mistakes, and he’ll likely learn from them pretty quickly. — Nick Baumgardner
ARCH MANNING WITH A DIME AND A HUGE GAIN 🎯@TexasFootball pic.twitter.com/yNBrclwahR
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) August 30, 2025
Dane Brugler’s preseason scouting report
Given his last name, it should come as no surprise that Manning looks very natural playing quarterback. From the setup and reads to the execution, his operation is rhythmic and straight out of the how-to-play-quarterback manual. Regardless of the action required, Manning keeps his feet, base and eyes on the same page and without panic, which allows him to stay on time and anticipate.
Manning entered 2025 with just two starts and 95 career pass attempts at the college level. If his last name were “Smith” and he were a three-star recruit instead of a five-star blue-chipper, would he still appear this high in early draft rankings? Who knows. However, what he has put on film so far has been very impressive.
There is plenty of belief that Manning won’t make the NFL jump until 2027. His grandfather Archie Manning went so far as to say “he’ll be at Texas” beyond this season. If his hometown New Orleans Saints earn the No. 1 pick, though, could that change Arch Manning’s decision-making process? Maybe. If Texas wins the national championship, would he feel compelled to make the jump? Possibly. There will be a lot of factors that go into his decision.
Regardless of when Manning enters the NFL, the early teases of his talent suggest he is headed for big things.
What’s next?
Aside from the obvious implications of Saturday’s loss, Manning had all eyes on him because Texas won’t play another signature game for more than a month. Manning’s next big opportunity will come in the SEC opener, at Florida on Oct. 4.
Of course, it will be important for Manning and his team to generate some momentum during those remaining nonconference games. As mentioned above, Manning has started just one SEC game — a 35-13 win over Mississippi State last September.
(Top photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)