NFL draft season is all about finding value, but what happens when a player everyone expected to break out stumbles out of the gate? In our latest consensus feature, the FantasyPros Featured Pros weigh in on this year’s biggest fantasy football busts. Should savvy managers buy low before a rebound, or is it smarter to fade the hype altogether? Our panel of experts breaks down which disappointing stars still deserve your patience-and which ones are better left for someone else to roster.
Consensus Fantasy Football Busts: Buy Low or Fade?
Which of the players listed in our consensus busts article has the best chance to outperform his ECR and ADP? You’re willing to take a shot if they fall in your draft?
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
“Breece Hall is simply a much better and more dynamic back than Braelon Allen. The rush to fade Hall is wild, possibly an overreaction to the disappointment of last season. I’ll bet on talent every time. Nearly every running back in the league is tied to some sort of committee, so you can’t be scared off by the existence of teammates. Hall’s ceiling is still worth chasing.”
– Andy Behrens (The Deep Shot)
“It’s Breece Hall. The bet against Hall is very much situational-based. The Jets’ offense might be bad, and they want to have a committee approach. But if there is any player who can overcome a bad situation, it’s Hall, because Hall has really never been in an ideal situation (even though last year seemed like the year it would change). Hall has been a top-12 RB in fantasy points per touch all 3 seasons of his NFL career. Hall was the fantasy RB2 on a Jets offense in 2023 led by Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian. They were also the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the NFL. There’s also a non-zero chance that Hall gets traded. If he continues to fall…you just got to take the value and bet on the talent.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Breece Hall has a realistic chance to drastically outperform his ECR and ADP by a substantial margin. Although I often find myself fading Breece, especially earlier in the offseason, given where he has been getting drafted recently, he could turn out to be an incredible value if everything works out in his favour this season. With Breece falling to mid-range RB2 status, and occasionally closer to back-end RB2 or even nearing RB3, he has the potential to finish as a mid-range RB1 if the Jets start to rely on him at all this season. I think the likelihood that Hall greatly outperforms his ECR and ADP is relatively slim, but the potential upside is significant enough that I will happily take him if he starts to slip.”
– Jacob Piccolo (TrueRGM)
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
“Tyreek Hill is not helping his cause this year. All the news coming out of camp and the off-season is about him running his mouth, and there are constant trade rumors on the fantasy front. That all leads to the possibility that he could be a draft-day steal as WR12. The Dolphins are going to need to score points this year. The secondary is a mess and will give up many long plays, leading to the need for Tua Tagovailoa and the offense to put up points and yards to stay in the game. Last year, Hill was struggling with a hand issue, and the team was in shambles. The knock on Tyreek Hill is his age, but he is still extremely fast and a key cog in the Dolphins’ passing game. This year, he could be a sneaky pickup and lead a team to a championship because with his speed and the team’s need to score, he could challenge to be a top (if not the top) fantasy WR.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
“I don’t agree with the consensus at all. In fact, I’m bullish on him. I understand the risks of Tyreek Hill, including how risky it is to count on Tua to stay healthy for an entire season. That said, the talent is too good for me to pass up. Respectively, to my fellow analysts who think that the Cheetah has lost a step, I don’t think they understand that he could lose ten steps and still be the fastest player in the league by a country mile. Look, when you get right down to it, every player has some risk, but when talented players are on sale in drafts, when your opponents are giving them to you, just scoop them up and say thank you. Bottom line- I think there’s way too much recency bias from last season baked into the consensus rankings. Remember, you can’t drive a car down the highway by looking in your rearview mirror; sometimes you have to throw last year’s stats out and take a leap of faith that this season will be better.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
“I’ll go right off the jump and grab Tyreek Hill at WR15. I don’t care whether he and Tua are best buddies. If he’s healthy, he’ll perform. And yes, Tua’s health factors as well. Certainly, he underwhelmed last year to a WR18 (PPR) following a dominant half-decade of top-6 performances. He still posted five games of at least 19 points and remains an elite breakaway threat. The potential for a return to greatness is there for McDaniel.”
– Mike Harmon (Swollen Dome)
Justin Fields (QB – NYJ)
“Justin Fields. I’m certainly not all-in on Fields, but given his modest ADP, I’ve made a point to have some exposure to him due to his upside. Due o his his running ability and a high-end weapon at receiver (Garrett Wilson) there’s some potential there. And new OC Tanner Engstrand might be able to help in the way he aided in Jared Goff‘s development in Detroit.”
– Ryan McCrystal (Sharp Football Analysis)
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)
“Honestly, I like a fair few of the names listed as potential busts. But I’ll go with the guy who received the second most votes overall and back Mark Andrews. Andrews started slow last season, but his production increased as the year went on. Yes, some of that was TD-driven, but his role also expanded down the stretch. Especially with Isaiah Likely out to start the season with a foot injury, Andrews has a solid chance to repeat as a top-six tight end.”
– Ted Chmyz (Fantasy SP)
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN)
“Seeing analysts name T.J. Hockenson as a potential bust is shocking because, if anything, he is set to have his best season ever. He wasn’t close to himself physically last year after recovering from an ACL tear in December of 2023. Before that, he was on pace for his first 1,000-yard season in a pass-happy Kevin O’Connell offense. He’s still in that offense, now in his prime age (28), arguably with a better QB if J.J. McCarthy is legit, and faces no more target competition than before. If you are worried that an ancient Adam Thielen will steal targets from Hock, you should also worry that Amari Cooper will impact Brock Bowers. Hockenson will be a top-5 fantasy TE that you can grab in the middle rounds.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
“Three people picked Chris Olave as a likely bust. With a WR35, mid-seventh-round ADP, Olave looks like a decent value to me. Yes, his concussion issues are worrisome, but the risk is baked into his price. Yes, the Saints’ QB situation is unappetizing, but even the worst NFL passing attacks typically generate 3,000 yards in a season, and Olave is poised for a massive target share. Olave has averaged 2.21 yards per route run over his first three NFL seasons. That’s not quite Justin Jefferson (2.64) territory in career YPRR, but it’s up there with CeeDee Lamb (2.28) and Ja’Marr Chase (2.25). Take the deep discount on a talented young receiver who’s being over-faded.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
RJ Harvey (RB – DEN)
“RJ Harvey is, and will continue to be, one of my most selected players thus far in drafts. Harvey is joining one of the most RB-friendly offenses in the league with Sean Payton and has a superb pathway to contribute immediately. The combination of elite quickness and super soft hands will endear him to QB Bo Nix in relatively quick standing, not to mention the opportunities he will receive in the running game with or without J.K. Dobbins. Currently, the RB21 in half-PPR ADP, and the RB23 is in the ECR. Harvey will outperform both with relative ease in 2025.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
“Marvin Harrison Jr. was one of the biggest busts in fantasy last season, finishing as WR29 after being drafted at WR9 (Half-PPR). Although he was an enormous disappointment at cost, we shouldn’t overreact – it’s pretty easy to take a step back and see the path for the former 4th overall pick to experience a large year 2 breakout. Harrison led the league in uncatchable targets in 2024 (per PFF). He was heavily used downfield (12th in aDOT) and didn’t get the benefit of many easy layup throws. Matt Harmon‘s Reception Perception charted Harrison as being fairly successful in nearly every route type except the nine (or “go”) routes – it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals not realizing this and Harrison benefiting from some regression in 2025. His 22% target share and 1.79 yards per route run are strong enough metrics, especially for a rookie, that we should not question Marv’s ability to succeed at the NFL level. A change in usage may be all he needs to vastly outperform his ADP of WR16.”
– Charlie Sisian (The Fantasy DC)
Which of the players listed in our consensus sleepers article are you NEVER drafting, regardless of price?
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WAS)
“I’m just going to assume Bill Croskey-Merritt makes an appearance in the sleeper feature, because that guy’s name is everywhere. The buzz surrounding him is extreme. In pretty much every draft over the past two weeks, someone is much higher on Croskey-Merritt than I’m willing to go. He’s a fun story attached to a productive offense, but we can’t wish away Austin Ekeler or Chris Rodriguez. Washington’s backfield is not as clearly defined as we might like. I’ve got no issue landing committee backs, but I’d prefer to know my guys have either a receiving or a goal-line role.”
– Andy Behrens (The Deep Shot)
Brock Purdy (QB – SF)
“I am a Brock Purdy fan, but this year I am worried. Deebo Samuel is gone. Brandon Aiyuk is starting the season on the PUP. Christian McCaffrey is amazing, but always an injury concern for owners. All those factors make Purdy a very volatile player, especially at QB10. There are so many quarterbacks this year from QB11-24 that I am not willing to draft Purdy early with the risk that San Francisco takes a step back this year.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)
“I don’t expect Baker Mayfield to fall back to earth entirely, but some regression in the touchdown numbers is a near guarantee. Another factor in fading Mayfield has to do with who is coming off the board behind him. There are too many high-upside quarterbacks coming off the board much later (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, C.J. Stroud, etc). Unless Mayfield were to slide many rounds from his current ADP, I’d rather gamble on a potential breakout fantasy performance from one of the younger quarterbacks in the later rounds.”
– Ryan McCrystal (Sharp Football Analysis)
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)
“I’ll draft just about anyone at the right price, but the price would have to be extremely low for me to consider Quinshon Judkins. The season starts in less than a week, and he’s still not on an NFL roster. He’ll probably sign with the Browns eventually, but who knows when that will be. At that point, he’ll have to learn Cleveland’s entire playbook, then overtake Jerome Ford and/or Dylan Sampson to hopefully be the lead early-down back on what will likely be a terrible offense. The juice simply isn’t worth the squeeze … and I haven’t even mentioned potential discipline from the league for his domestic violence arrest.”
– Ted Chmyz (Fantasy SP)
“I don’t think investing in Quinshon Judkins is the best way to approach the Browns’ backfield. The one thing that was working in his favor early this offseason was his high-end draft capital, but that factor has lost its luster due to Judkins’ off-field issues. I’m skeptical he will just walk in on Day 1 and assert himself atop the depth chart. He still hasn’t signed his rookie contract and missed the entire training camp. Also, Judkins will still likely serve a suspension between 4 and 6 games. The Browns added RB Raheim Sanders after releasing Pierre Strong, suggesting that Judkins still might not be close to returning. Rather take a shot on fellow RB, Dylan Sampson, as he looks to establish himself as an integral part of the Browns’ backfield against Jerome Ford, who took a pay cut to stay on the roster.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“I have a tough time ever drafting Quinshon Judkins, as I cannot see a realistic upside this season, and the floor is rock bottom. With the extended absence due to off-field issues, whether it be legal or contract-related, Judkins has not so much as sniffed the field yet, which is a recipe for disaster when it comes to rookies without a clear path to the field. Although Judkins is likely the best back in Cleveland, his absence has opened reps and opportunity for previously established back Jerome Ford, as well as fellow rookie Dylan Sampson. Pair these issues with the dismal state of the Browns’ offense in what projects to be a relatively low-scoring unit, and I do not have much desire to go anywhere near Judkins in 2025. While a second-half breakout is possible, there are simply better options being drafted around Judkins, with both higher upside and less risk.”
– Jacob Piccolo (TrueRGM)
Joe Mixon (RB – HOU)
“I’m getting bad vibes about Joe Mixon’s ankle. This has been an issue the entire offseason, and the Texans showed their hand by bringing in veteran Nick Chubb. There’s a real chance that Mixon could miss the entire season. I agree with Scott Pianowski’s philosophy: ‘Don’t go looking for trouble.’ And what Scott meant is the NFL is a long, grueling season, so don’t go looking for players who are injured before it even starts. When you throw in the fact that the Texans’ offensive line looks noticeably weaker without all-pro Laremy Tunsil, who was traded to Washington this past offseason, there are enough red flags that Ringo is fading the Texans’ offense in 2025. Houston, we have a problem.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Jayden Higgins (WR – HOU)
“I was high on Jayden Higgins after the NFL Draft, too… until I saw how he was used sparingly with the starters throughout the preseason. It looks like the WR2 in Houston behind Nico Collins will be veteran Christian Kirk, and in 3-WR sets, the team is using Xavier Hutchinson as the Z receiver. Higgins will need time to build a rapport with C.J. Stroud if he’s not on the field much early in the season. There’s simply no need to draft him – wait until mid-season and see if he becomes a viable pickup at some point.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
“I just can’t bring myself to draft Nick Chubb. He clearly wasn’t his old self last year post-injury. Chubb doesn’t add value as a pass catcher; he’ll be operating behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and his role is somewhat vague.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
“It is never Kyle Pitts, and I mean NEVER Kyle Pitts. The price is free, I get it, but what evidence is there that Kyle Pitts is finally going to come good in 2025? Pitts has not recorded a top-12 finish in each of his last three seasons and has seen statistical regressions in catches, targets, and yards from his rookie campaign, where he vaulted onto the scene. While 24, and there may be some hope, I won’t be wasting my time with Pitts, as there will be better options there to dedicate your late round assets to.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Travis Hunter (WR, CB – JAC)
“Lawrence and Pitts are the low-hanging fruit out of the assembled list. For this year, I’ll be an interested observer, but not a participant in the Travis Hunter sweepstakes. I’m intrigued, without question, and I hope that it translates. But I won’t be in the market.”
– Mike Harmon (Swollen Dome)
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn