The NFL schedule was released on May 14, 2025, exactly 110 days prior to this writing. Sportsbooks were quick to put up odds for Week 1, and despite there being market movement and action across the board, another wave of betting action is bound to come this week and shake up the odds once again.
The goal of my early-week NFL write-ups this season at Yahoo Sports will be to get ahead of the closing line and derive CLV (closing line value), the largest indicator of a good or bad bet.
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Here are a few Week 1 NFL wagers that I think placing now will still put you ahead of the closing line as a bettor.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 47)
Water eventually finds its level, and not all betting markets move only in one direction. This total opened at 45.5 in May and has been bet up to 47. This movement can be attributed to two reasons:
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The Colts naming Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback gives them a more competent offense early in the season and lifts the offensive floor of the team.
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Preseason betting trends that consistently led to overs winning. Overs cashed at over a 70% clip through the first two weeks of preseason before there was a noticeable market correction, bringing every game total up.
I think this number now creates an under spot and will eventually be bet back down a bit. The Colts are going to remain a run heavy and short pass team. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are emphasizing size and strength and starting to move away from their speed and timing scheme. The initial over movement being a league trend will be faded situationally and here is likely one of those spots.
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Defensive systems and preparation will be a lot higher level in the regular season than the preseason, so backing this under is likely a strong spot. I expect this line to close at 46.5, and getting half a point of movement on a relatively important number creates a positive expected value wager.
Bet: Under 47
Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 43) at New Orleans Saints
The Saints have been one of the most faded teams in the preseason market. Their win total has plummeted a full win and additional vig. It has probably been about a 75-cent move towards the under on every dollar bet from the original opening win totals line to the current line. With Spencer Rattler the starting QB and Tyler Shough the backup, this is likely the worst QB room in the NFL. They also have a ton of money tied up in dead cap space and a new coaching staff coming in.
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Whether or not we believe in the Saints, the overs should be early and often played in Saints games. New head coach Kellen Moore has spent the last few years as an offensive coordinator, and his teams have been a top-two offense in pace of play each of the last three seasons. They are going to try and run a lot of plays in an effort to tire opposing defenses out. The Saints also come into the season with healthy skill players in Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. These are all players who can make explosive plays happen on any down.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have been a darling of the futures market and are expected to take an offensive leap this season. Kyler Murray is saying his knee feels as close to normal as ever after his ACL tear a few seasons back. Marvin Harrison Jr. will be much better utilized in this offense after a down year. Trey McBride and James Conner show this team has a plethora of proven talent. Head coach Jonathan Gannon is also a playcaller who likes to move with pace.
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This total is a very clear over spot and may close north of 44. Movement through 43 and 44 are both key numbers for NFL totals and would be very valuable. This should be a full unit play at 43, and under a full unit play if the line moves to 43.5 by the time you read this.
Bet: Over 43
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-1, 50.5)
Buffalo and Baltimore will clash in the first Sunday Night Football game of the NFL season. These teams have been historically great in recent years and predict to be atop the league again this season. The Bills and Ravens rank first and second in NFL history in Offensive EPA Per Play over the last five seasons of teams that didn’t make it to a Super Bowl. This matchup also features the highest total of any Week 1 game at 50.5.
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The Bills being a -1.5 favorite at some books is an indicator that the power rank of these teams is even, as 1.5 points is the new standard for calculating home field advantage. However, using last season’s market rankings and adjusting for new roster additions and subtractions, they should not be equal.
The Bills’ home-field advantage strengthens later in the year as the weather in Buffalo gets harsher. The Ravens have a slightly higher injury risk with a slimmer mobile QB in Lamar Jackson, an older RB in Derrick Henry and a defense that was incredibly healthy this season due for some health regression. But Baltimore is healthy across the board for this matchup. For these reasons, right now the Ravens should be power ranked above the Bills and this should be closer to a pick-em game.
Take the Ravens at any number +1 or better. The difference between +1 and the money line is worth a little less than seven cents. If you see +1 (-115) or a ML at -110 for the Baltimore side, take the points and pay the extra five cents for market valuable insurance.
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Bet: Ravens +1 (-115)
A lot will be expected from Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Emeka Egbuka in his NFL debut. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 47) at Atlanta Falcons
This line has not adjusted properly for the injuries the Buccaneers are dealing with already this season. We knew WR Chris Godwin was going to be out to start the season, but Tampa Bay’s offense is also now missing star offensive lineman Tristan Wirfs, WR Jalen McMillan and the Bucs got bad news this week on TE Cade Otton, who is reported to be missing some time with a leg injury.
While WR Emeka Egbuka has been the star of preseason and fantasy football hype, this is the first professional football game of his career and he is going to need to step into a huge role. The combination of these injuries should cause this line to drop another point. I expect some mid week sharp action on Atlanta, pushing this to a Falcons +1.5, and thus grabbing the +2.5 is a no brainer.
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I would also consider the under as well, though I have not bet it yet, because both teams should feature their star running backs in Bijan Robinson and Bucky Irving. I think the home Atlanta Falcons take the season opener against their NFC South division rival Tampa Bay; however based on pricing the +2.5 represents more value than the money line around +120.
Take the points, take the Falcons, and consider the under as a separate straight bet, not a same-game parlay.
Bet: Falcons +2.5