Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 1 (2025 Fantasy Football)

From a fantasy football perspective, the season starts today. With Labor Day behind us most drafts are done, and it’s time to think about Week 1 lineups and finally pick up a defense. You didn’t draft a defense, did you?

This article series is about streaming defenses, the practice of adding and dropping defenses frequently to play matchups, rather than sticking with the same one through thick and thin. This way of life is based on a few principles and findings:

• Fantasy defense scoring does a much worse job of reflecting real-world performance than for other positions. It really has 3 components: sacks, turnovers (and the TDs they might lead to), and points allowed. So choosing a defense is really about optimizing expected sacks and turnovers while avoiding high-powered offenses that will punish you with points allowed.
• Matchups matter more than who your defense actually is, so much so that this article is actually more about quarterbacks than defenses. This is because sacks and turnovers are most of what we care about, and are largely the offense’s fault. At any given time there are about 30 defenses I’m happy to start in a great matchup. It’s really only the worst of the worst defenses that I would hesitate to start against a bad offense.
• Sacks are king, because they are by far the most predictable and can make up for points allowed. A good pass rush will take advantage of opportunities, but it’s poor offensive line play and a quarterback that holds the ball to long that create those opportunities. A great example of this is the first couple seasons of Joe Burrow‘s career. He was very good in a real football sense – he’s Joe Burrow, but he still turned in good fantasy results for opposing defenses because he took so many sacks. 3 or more sacks in a game provides an incredible floor. Conversely, and offense that struggles to score but nevertheless avoids taking very many sacks is a poor matchup. That’s Kyler Murray‘s whole brand.
• Dropbacks are king. An offense’s dropbacks per game is the best predictor of opposing fantasy defense scoring. It’s obvious that a dropback is a prerequisite for a sack or an interception, but they provide a much better chance of fumbles than rushing plays as well. Fully half of fumbles happen on sacks, and receivers are more fumble-prone than running backs. Running backs who are prone to fumble tend not to keep their jobs. Because of this, above average offenses who pass at a high rate can be great matchups, and bad teams that are run-first offer limited upside for the opposing defense.
• Your league context matters. If you’re the only one streaming in your league and people aren’t hoarding defenses, congrats on the trophy. It becomes much harder if you are competing for the good streamers, or if there are fewer defenses available due to a deeper league or lots of defenses on people’s benches. In general I don’t really recommend streaming in a league with 14 or more teams.
• It becomes more worth it to use a bench spot for a defense late in the season. This time of year you should have running back lottery tickets at the end of your bench. But when the fantasy playoffs are looming and those tickets have been cached, it’s worth using your bench to plan ahead and target great matchups in the playoffs.

Streaming Defenses: Fantasy Football Waiver Wire & Start/Sit Advice (Week 1)

This is the lowest-information time of year. Just a couple weeks will do a lot for informing who the best matchups are, but for now we have to guess a bit how offseason defense changes and quarterback shuffling will shake out. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Bluesky.

Week 1 D/ST Fantasy Football Projections

Week 1 Matchups

1. ARI @ NO: This matchup is an easily stoppable force meeting a rather movable object. The Falcons have a below-average defense, but not so bad I wouldn’t start them in a good matchup, and this matchup is amazing. Last year while Derek Carr was injured, the Saints turned to Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, and they were the best fantasy defense target in the league during that time. I imagine we’ll see Tyler Shough at some point this season, but for now the Saints are starting Rattler so I expect more excellent results for opposing fantasy defenses.
2. PIT @ NYJ: Expectations are pretty high for Justin Fields in the fantasy community. Last year for the Steelers he held down the fort for 6 weeks while Russell Wilson was injured, and led the team to a 4-2 record with only 2 turnovers. But he has several things working in favor of opposing defenses this year. Firstly, he took a healthy 2.7 sacks per game in that 6-week stretch, and I expect that rate to be higher on his new team. Secondly, that new team is the Jets, who we all know are deeply cursed. And this week he has to face his former team, the Steelers, who happen to have one of the best defenses in football. If you have Pittsburgh you were probably one of the first few people to draft a defense, and starting them this week is a no-brainer.
3. DEN vs TEN: Speaking of no-brainers, the only rookie quarterback starting in Week 1 has to face a frontrunner for best defense in the league. Cam Ward might have been the first overall pick, but there is literally no draft pedigree that would scare me off of targeting a rookie in Week 1. My rule for rookie QBs is they are always viable targets until proven otherwise, and it’s well-known that this was a weaker QB class. In another year Ward might have gone in the back half of the first round. The Broncos were great last year and only improved, adding the best corner in the draft to an already excellent secondary. The cost to draft them this year was real, but it should pay dividends quickly.
4. WAS vs NYG: It’s been a journey for Russell Wilson since leaving the Seahawks. He’s not quite as fast in his 30s as he used to be, and as a result, his old heroball style doesn’t really work anymore. It took him a while to figure out how to play as more of a pocket passer, but he did indeed figure it out towards the end of his time in Denver, and was pretty solid for the Steelers last year. But he did still turn in a high sack rate of 3.0 per game, and just like Justin Fields, he left the Steelers for a cursed New York team. Meanwhile the Commanders have their sights set on the Super Bowl, and this matchup is a slam dunk of a first step.
5. NE vs LV: The Patriots are the fifth defense on my list and the fourth facing a team starting a new quarterback. Geno Smith is a veteran who’s been a starter in 5/12 seasons in the NFL. He was solid for the Seahawks over the last 3 seasons, but unfortunately for him, he joined a Raiders team that the most exciting defense matchup in the league last year. He’s far from the worst quarterback in the league, but he’s not someone who can carry a mediocre team to success. My only reservation is that if the Raiders lean on Ashton Jeanty as much as everyone who drafted Jeanty in the 2nd round hopes, that limits the turnover upside for the Patriots.
6. LAR vs HOU: C.J. Stroud struggled to replicate his rookie success as a sophomore in 2024, and did it while taking a healthy 3.1 sacks per game, up from 2.5 the year prior. It’s certainly possible the Texans fall out of the conversation as defense targets, especially if they can stay healthy. But until they actually demonstrate an improvement over last year, I’m happy start an average defense against the Texans.
7. MIN @ CHI: Expectations are high for Caleb Williams and the Bears this year, with Ben Johnson taking over as the most hyped head coach prospect in some time. Williams showed flashes of living up to his draft pedigree last year, but was broadly a letdown, and did it while taking an incredible 4.0 sacks per game. With that kind of sack rate, you can turn in a good real-world performance, and still provide the opposing defense with a starter-level fantasy day.
8. SF @ SEA: Quarterbacks on new teams are emerging as a theme of my top 10. Sam Darnold struggled quite a bit in his career, but to be fair, you couldn’t hardly pick a worse situation than to be drafted by the Jets and traded to the Panthers. Last year Darnold ended up starting the whole season for the Vikings due to J.J. McCarthy‘s torn meniscus in the preseason. Darnold made the most of it, and turned in the best season of his career, earning him a chance to start for the Seahawks this year. The 49ers had a rough time in 2024, largely due to injuries. The Super Bowl window might be closing in San Francisco for salary cap reasons, but they’re still a solid team with a fierce pass rush. With first-round rookie Mykel Williams joining Nick Bosa, I expect them to continue to torment quarterbacks.
9. JAC vs CAR: Bryce Young is another quarterback with the curse of playing well enough in college to be drafted by a garbage team. After a rough rookie campaign and a Week 2 benching in 2024, he came back in the second half of the season and showed flashes of living up to his draft pedigree in the final 3 weeks. His top-tier rookie sack rate became boom and bust. The Jags defense certainly carries some risk if Young continues to improve, but you could do a lot worse for a defense that’s available in basically every league.
10. MIA @ IND: Last year the Dolphins fell well short of expectations, while the Colts did live up to expectations, which is to say they sucked. Daniel Jones is another QB with the misfortune to be drafted by a team that earned an early first-round pick. He gets a fresh start in Indianapolis, but unfortunately for him it’s not really a better situation. I see no reason why Jones shouldn’t continue with his career rate of 3.0 sacks per game. This is an excellent opportunity for the Dolphins to get back on track.