NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 1 (Fantasy Football)

In this article, I will highlight some team performance trends from the 2024 season, gathering insights into the fantasy football landscape for Week 1. While the data from the previous season may be less indicative of how teams will perform now, it will serve as a helpful refresher on our current standing. For the analysis that follows, please reference the graphics at the bottom of the article.

Offensive Insights

Baltimore, Buffalo, and Detroit lead on offense:

The Ravens, Bills, and Lions finished the season on top, with a 0.14 EPA/play (expected points added); these teams were incredibly efficient with the ball. While the Bills started hot, both the Ravens and Lions took some time last season to get into the flow of things; as you can see below, it wasn’t until about Weeks 3 to 5 that they hit their groove. The Ravens and Bills collide in Week 1, so look for a high-scoring game!

Wide group in the middle:

There were several teams that finished with mid-level EPA/play, including Cincinnati (+0.09), Philadelphia (+0.09), Arizona and Green Bay (+0.06 each), and Kansas City (+0.05). These squads can go either direction to start the season; for Week 1, the Cardinals are a strong bet. They’ve had another offseason to gel between Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride, and start the season off against a weak Saints team that put up -0.01 EPA/play defensively last season.

Offensive struggles to note:

At the bottom, Cleveland landed lowest at –0.15, followed by Las Vegas (–0.11), the New York Giants (–0.08), New England (–0.06), Dallas, New Orleans, and Chicago (around –0.05). Many of these teams have in common the selection of a rookie RB in the draft. Look for conservative approaches to their Week 1 game plans, and for Quinshon Judkins, Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, and Tyrone Tracy to have strong usage in Week 1.

Vikings’ end-of-year struggles:

Minnesota struggled to end the season, with their EPA/play plunging below zero as seen below. With second-year QB JJ McCarthy starting at the helm, it may take the Vikings some growing pains to find their flow. Look for them to have a slow start offensively in Week 1.

Defensive Insights

Ashton Jeanty trouble:

While he will likely get a lot of usage in Week 1, the Patriots only allowed 0.89 fantasy points per touch last season, and have only bolstered their defense. Look for them to be aggressive in stopping the rookie RB in Week 1.

Air raid in Cleveland:

The Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals face off in Week 1, and both defenses allowed over 2.9 points per touch to receivers last season. Look for an all-out air raid against both squads in Week 1. Ja’Marr Chase and Jerry Jeudy will be strong starts here.

Watch out for Green Bay:

The Packers had a 0.04 EPA/play defensively last season and just added Micah Parsons to the mix. If he gets into the lineup for Week 1, this defensive unit will be scary. Be wary of the Lions’ fantasy performers in Week 1.

Brian Thomas set for big Week 1:

Brian Thomas is set for a massive Week 1 performance, as he faces the Carolina Panthers, who allowed 2.95 points per touch to WRs last season. As the WR1 with little competition from his WR core, Thomas should be in for a strong start to the season. Trevor Lawrence is also back from injury, which will certainly boost his numbers.

That’s all for this article; be sure to check back next week for true team performance trend statistics!