Welcome to the Opening Line, where we look at ways to have a little fun while identifying intriguing early wagers on the upcoming week’s NFL action. Unlike others in the media, I was actually banned from appearing anywhere BESIDES Ohio State, so I spent the last few months writing this column in chalk outside the Horseshoe. But after all that work was wiped away by Texas-sized tears, I’m pleased to be back.
For this season, we are going to really lean into weekend overreactions by jumping on the lines right when they come out rather than waiting around all week. Sure, my hardest partying days may be behind me, but when it comes to betting, your Friday nights are like my Monday mornings and there is plenty of fun to be had diving in early while some of the lines are still as soft as a Gen Zer asking AI how to process the trauma of their local barista’s inability to perfectly balance their hazelnut and caramel swirls with the locally-sourced pistachio milk.
The last thing to keep in mind before we jump into the fun is that this week’s version will look slightly different than the rest of the season, mainly because these numbers have been out for months. Let’s get to it!
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of Monday morning. All bets are -110, unless stated otherwise.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
After the devastating Micah Parsons trade last week, you can’t really say the Cowboys are rolling into Philadelphia. It’s more like John Wick after fighting his way up the steps. And now the team is one CeeDee Lamb pulled hammy away from the only star left remaining in Dallas, being the one marking midfield. Though if the NFL doesn’t take Jerry’s phone away soon, he may trade it for two sets of chains and Brownie the Elf.
Long-time Eagles fans might have empathy for their rivals, having lost Reggie White to the Packers in 1993 (never a good sign when you have to go back 32 years to find a comparable event). You’ll be shocked to learn that the Eagles did not improve after one of the greatest defensive players in history left town, finishing three games worse than the previous season, including a stretch where they lost eight out of nine.
I’m afraid the same fate awaits America’s Team, and given they are opening against the league’s most talented roster in a nationally televised night game where the home fans might have started partaking in some beverages in February to celebrate the banner lift, this one could easily get out of hand. Look for the Eagles to cover comfortably and for the Cowboys’ new star player, Cap Room, to outdo Travis Hunter by playing all 22 positions during garbage time.
Early bet: Eagles -7.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Imagine even just a few years ago, you were told Aaron Rodgers was playing his old team in the first game of the season and was seeking revenge. You wouldn’t even need ayahuasca to assume the NFL stole a page from the college playbook and scheduled a Week 0 with this as the sole game to capitalize on the Super Bowl-esque attention. Hard to believe it’s instead buried in the middle of the early game slate with barely any coverage at all. Given his love of the spotlight, I’m surprised he hasn’t yet brought it back on himself by announcing he’s also engaged to Taylor Swift, or something along those lines.
Instead, people should be paying more attention to Mike Tomlin’s incredible success in road openers. The Steelers’ stability provides huge dividends, as the shortened preseason and the lack of starting quarterback reps greatly benefit teams that can roll out the same wheels in Week 1 without having to reinvent themselves at all. As a result, in the last half-decade, they have stoically strolled into the stadium of some of the league’s most hyped teams and brought them down to earth each time, going 5-0 and outperforming the spread by a total of 47.5 points. So, whether it’s because of Rodgers or despite him, expect Pittsburgh to add to that margin on Sunday.
Early bet: Steelers -3 (-102)
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
For those of you who have followed me previously, or if you spent your summer reading the sidewalks of Columbus, Ohio, you’ll know one of my favorite sayings is “Overs Make Friends, Unders Make Money.” That credo comes in particularly handy during NFL Week 1, when the public has the pent-up energy of Seth Green in “Can’t Hardly Wait” and is ready to get down with every over at the party despite QB1s taking fewer preseason snaps than ever, leaving lots of kinks for offenses to iron out in games that actually count.
This particular match-up serves as the Jennifer Love Hewitt of the slate, given that Tua Tagovailoa appears to be healthy for the first snap of the season (hold your breath for the second) and the Dolphins have a reputation for being explosive when he’s available, driving up the line. But if that is true, why on earth are they 1.5-point underdogs to a team starting the immortal Daniel Jones?
It’s likely because the Colts defense is the best unit on the field and potentially one of the best in the league, so for the over to hit, you are betting on them to get shredded or for a run-heavy offense led by a QB who often struggles to break 200 yards to put up 27-30 points a few weeks after settling on their starter. It’s far more likely this is a repeat of the Dolphins opener last year against the Jags, where the under hit by a comfortable 12.5 points, and you can spend the fourth quarter listening to Lovebürger’s greatest hits. Well done!
Early bet: Under 47 points
(Photo: Amy Sussman / Getty Images for Netflix)