Week 1 is the big reveal in fantasy football. All of the speculation about training camp and preseason usage goes out the window when the chips are down, and the coaching decisions impact the win-loss column. Let’s look at a few situations that are especially intriguing in Week 1.
Fantasy Football Storylines
Will the Chiefs Open Up the Deep Passing Attack?
Onlookers would be hard-pressed to argue with Kansas City’s success. The Chiefs have played in three consecutive Super Bowls, winning two and losing last year’s. However, they haven’t been the same high-flying offense as they were early in Patrick Mahomes‘ career.
Instead, the Chiefs have thrived on grinding teams down and a high success rate rather than generating explosive plays. According to Sumer Sports, the Chiefs were tied for ninth in expected points added (EPA) per play, tied for 10th in EPA per pass, tied for 29th in average depth of target (6.34-yard aDOT) but seventh in success rate in 2024. Per Pro Football Reference, the Chiefs were tied for 21st in yards per play (5.1) and tied for 17th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.9) last year.
Even with the lack of chunk gains, the Chiefs leaned heavily on their passing attack, with the second-highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) last season. Nevertheless, Mahomes was only the QB11 in fantasy points per game (18.6) among quarterbacks who played more than one game last year. Xavier Worthy was Kansas City’s highest-ranked wideout in half-point per reception (half PPR) points per game among wideouts who played more than seven games in 2024, ranking as the WR41 with 9.3 half PPR points per game. Travis Kelce was the TE8 in half PPR points per game (9.2) last season. Obviously, Rashee Rice was having an excellent season before he suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 4. Still, Kansas City’s offense left a lot to be desired for fantasy football purposes.
The Chiefs spent their first-round pick on Josh Simmons to shore up Mahomes’ blindside. Simmons fell because his final collegiate season was cut short by a torn patellar tendon. Yet, Simmons was healthy in training camp and played in all three preseason games. Could he help unlock the deep passing attack if he hits the ground running by awarding Mahomes more time to unleash deep balls? Maybe. The Chiefs start their regular season against the Chargers in Brazil on Friday, and it will be the first opportunity for Kansas City to turn the clock back to a more exciting, fantasy-friendly offense.
How Will Jacksonville’s and Washington’s Backfields Shake Out in Week 1?
The Jaguars and Commanders aren’t the only teams with uncertain backfield rotations, but I’d argue their ambiguous backfields are the most intriguing. Liam Coen was Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator in 2024, and the Buccaneers went from 31st in EPA per rush in 2023 to tied for fifth in 2024. If Coen can work similar magic with Jacksonville’s rushing attack, one or more of their running backs could be fantasy assets.
Bucky Irving was a stud as a rookie last year, but Rachaad White was also useful in fantasy football leagues. Will Tank Bigsby handle early-down work with Travis Etienne serving as a change-of-pace option and the passing-down choice? Will rookie Bhayshul Tuten make it a messy three-player running-back-by-committee situation in the season opener, rendering all of them untrustworthy fantasy options?
Meanwhile, the Commanders somewhat uncluttered their backfield by trading incumbent early-down back Brian Robinson Jr. to the 49ers. However, passing-down back Austin Ekeler is back. Ekeler was inefficient while playing through a high-ankle sprain in his final season with the Chargers in 2023, but he had a stellar rebound for the Commanders last season. Ekeler’s 6.5 yards per touch on 112 touches in 12 games last season were Ekeler’s most since amassing a career-high 6.9 yards per touch in 2019. He’s unlikely to go away and could emerge as Washington’s best fantasy option in the backfield in half PPR and PPR formats if he handles enough rushing work in addition to his pass-catching duties.
Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt turned heads in training camp. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the seventh-round pick had 18 rush attempts for 70 yards, one rushing touchdown, three targets, three receptions and eight receiving yards on 11 routes. The rookie known as “Bill” didn’t have massive preseason numbers. Nonetheless, the organization saw enough through the offseason process to feel comfortable with shipping B-Rob out.
Gamers haven’t slept on Croskey-Merritt’s ascension. Instead, he’s steadily risen all summer, and he’s one of the largest risers at running back in half PPR formats in the previous 24 hours and the last seven days, per our Real-Time ADP tool. Sadly, I think the hype has exceeded realistic expectations for a seventh-round running back.
Chris Rodriguez could also factor into Washington’s backfield mix, particularly as a potential goal-line and short-yardage option. If head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury prefer to use Rodriguez’s physical running style at the goal-line, and Ekeler is the team’s best passing-game option, what does that leave Bill with? Will Croskey-Merritt be stuck in an empty-calorie role, handling the low-value touches on the ground between the 20s? Jayden Daniels had an electrifying rookie campaign, and Washington’s offense could be one of the best this year. Ekeler and JCM could both help fantasy football teams if Rodriguez is rarely involved. Still, the situation would be less interesting if the pie is split among three running backs, not to mention Daniels soaking up some rushing opportunities as well.
Will Caleb Williams Operate Within the Structure of Ben Johnson‘s Offense When the Bullets Start Flying?
Can Ben Johnson convince Caleb Williams to run the offense and play within structure? According to PFF, Williams had the fifth-longest time to throw (3.03 seconds) and the second-highest pressure-to-sack rate (28.2 P2S%) among 39 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks in the regular season and playoffs last year. Williams demonstrated a similar propensity to hold onto the ball, attempt to freestyle out of structure and take sacks when pressured in his final season at USC, too.
Williams must get rid of the ball faster and take sacks less frequently this year for Chicago’s offense to succeed. He’ll face a challenging and unique matchup in Week 1.
Brian Flores is an aggressive defensive coordinator. According to Pro Football Reference, Minnesota’s 38.9% blitz rate in 2024 was the highest in the NFL. The Vikings also had the sixth-highest pressure rate (25.3%) in 2024. Williams completed 50-of-78 pass attempts (64.1%) for 531 yards (265.5 per game), three touchdowns and zero interceptions in two games against the Vikings last season. However, Williams also took two sacks. Per PFF, Williams had four turnover-worthy plays against Minnesota, including tying for a season-high three against the Vikings in Week 12.
Williams doesn’t need to play flawlessly in the opener to create optimism for his and his pass-catching weapons’ fantasy football outlook the rest of the season. The second-year pro must show a willingness to play within the scheme instead of continuing to make the same blunders that plagued him as a rookie and in his final year in college, though.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.