Very little separates these teams. Duke might have the slight edge at QB with Darian Mensah, but Illinois has the better offensive line. And both teams have strong defensive units, which is leading us to target the Under.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Duke QB Darian Mensah throws a TD pass vs. Elon.
A casual college football fan might not realize that one of the best matchups in Week 2 will be played in Durham, North Carolina.
Two underrated Power Four teams do battle when the Duke Blue Devils host the Illinois Fighting Illini. Both teams are sleeper contenders in their respective conferences, and a win in this matchup would go a long way to realizing that.
The Illini are the early favorites, but my early Illinois vs. Duke predictions and college football picks explain why I’m a believer in the Blue Devils on Saturday, September 6.
Illinois vs Duke predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Illinois vs Duke spread pick: Duke +3
-110 at FanDuel
Let’s start with the Illinois Fighting Illini. Brett Bielma’s team is one of the most experienced in the country, returning 19 starters, including QB Luke Altmyer, and is coming off a 10-3 season. However, they lost their big matchups to Oregon and Penn State.
Then there’s the Duke Blue Devils. It’s Manny Diaz’s second year at the helm, and it looks like the school is invested in the football program. I say that because they handed QB Darian Mensah $3 million to transfer from Tulane.
Meanwhile, Duke has an experienced defense with seven starters returning from an underrated unit in 2025.
Both teams started their season off on the right foot by dismantling FCS opponents in Week 1.
Illinois crushed Western Illinois 52-3, with Altmyer going 17-21 for 217 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Duke took out Elon, and Mensah went 27-34 for 389 yards with three scores and no picks.
There is little separating these teams. There are two great QBs, and while the Blue Devils might have the better pass rush, the Illini have the better offensive line.
Ultimately, I give a slight edge to Mensah at QB, and with the Blue Devils being at home, I’ll take the field goal with the home underdog.
Early Illinois vs Duke total pick: Under 49.5
-110 at FanDuel
The total may be the better bet to approach. Not only is this a matchup of underrated teams, but underrated defenses.
Illinois finished last season ranked 60th in opponent yards per play, but returns nine starters on that side of the ball. Luckily for the Fighting Illini, their strength is in the secondary, so they can slow down the electric Mensah. But this unit should be improved overall.
Meanwhile, Diaz is a defensive-minded coach, and it showed last season as the Blue Devils ranked 26th in opponent yards per play and 25th in sack rate, getting to the opposing QB 43 times a season ago.
Illinois can mitigate that a bit by committing to running the football a little more behind its excellent offensive line.
I wouldn’t be shocked if there was a feeling-out process early on in this matchup of two solid, well-coached teams. That has me thinking that the Under is the play.
Illinois vs Duke odds
- Illinois vs. Duke spread: Illinois -2.5
- Illinois vs. Duke moneyline: Illinois -146, Duke +122
- Illinois vs. Duke Over/Under: 49.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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