ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of easiest and most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
Last season was as difficult as we have ever seen for Eliminator. Nearly 95% of entries last season were eliminated by Week 4, as big favorites lost at an unprecedented rate. Every favorite of at least a touchdown lost outright in that span.
So have we learned anything from last year? Of course not. Over the long run, the biggest favorites tend to win the most, despite last season’s early results.
One benefit of last season could be more spread-out selections among picks this week. No team is more than 18% selected this week, meaning there is no obvious team to fade for leverage purposes.
The top play this week will be the most popular play: the Denver Broncos. However, several other teams also make sense. The Philadelphia Eagles have similar win probability to the Broncos. The Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Commanders might have the best combination of win probability and lack of future value. And there are several other logical plays down the board, including the Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Mike Clay’s Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet
1. Denver Broncos (vs. Tennessee Titans)
The Broncos are the most obvious choice in Week 1, as both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics give Denver the highest chance of any team to win Week 1. ESPN Analytics also has this as their easiest game all season, though they will have appealing home games against the Giants, Jets, Raiders and Jaguars later in the season. Denver is a difficult spot for Cam Ward to make his first career start, and rookie quarterbacks are 1-9-1 in Week 1 since 2019. The Broncos will be chalky, but not chalky enough to avoid them as the top pick on the board.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 75%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 70%
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ESPN BET line: Broncos -7.5 (-400 moneyline)
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Eliminator Challenge: 18% selected
2. Washington Commanders (vs. New York Giants)
This is Washington’s easiest game all season according to ESPN Analytics, and the Commanders are the third-biggest favorites of Week 1. There is some merit to saving them, as Mike Clay makes the Commanders the biggest favorites in Week 3 at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. However, despite the Commanders being the No. 8 team according to ESPN Analytics, there aren’t that many obvious opportunities to select them, so this week makes sense.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 68%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 69%
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ESPN BET line: Commanders -6.5 (-260 moneyline)
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Eliminator Challenge: 13% selected
3. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
The Eagles are the second-largest favorites this week in every metric here. They swept the Cowboys last season with two blowout wins and have won five of the past six meetings in Philadelphia. The biggest reason not to use them is that they are favored in 17 of 18 games this season, according to ESPN Analytics, so there will be plenty of opportunities to use them.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 70%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 69%
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ESPN BET line: Eagles -7.5 (-360 moneyline)
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Eliminator Challenge: 15% selected
4. Cincinnati Bengals (at Cleveland Browns)
Fading the Browns will likely become a staple of this column, and doing it in Week 1 is viable. This is Cincinnati’s easiest game until Week 18, according to Mike Clay, so if you like Bengals, there is no reason to save them. However, the Bengals are 1-11 in the first two weeks of the season over the past six years and, historically, divisional road favorites in early-season games are bad bets. If you can get past those trends, the Bengals make sense given their win probability and future schedule.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 73%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 65%
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ESPN BET line: Bengals -5.5 (-250 moneyline)
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Eliminator Challenge: 8% selected
5. Arizona Cardinals (at New Orleans Saints)
The Cardinals have three games with at least a 65% chance to win, according to Mike Clay, and all three are within the first five games, including this week. The Saints grade out as the worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, so targeting their opponent every week could be a viable strategy, starting in Week 1. However, be careful with the Cardinals, as they have not won as road favorites since 2021, including going 0-2 last season.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 68%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 69%
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ESPN BET line: Cardinals -6.5 (-280 moneyline)
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Eliminator Challenge: 10% selected
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6. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Carolina Panthers)
This is the top contrarian play of the week, as the Jaguars are only 3.5-point favorites. They have little future value, as this is their easiest game all season on paper according to Mike Clay, and it’s their easiest until Week 18 according to ESPN Analytics. The Jaguars are riskier than most of the other teams on this list, but ESPN Analytics still gives them the fifth-best chance to win, and they are going to be minimally selected.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 60%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 61%
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ESPN BET line: Jaguars -3.5 (-195 moneyline)
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Eliminator Challenge: 3% selected
7. New England Patriots (vs Las Vegas Raiders)
This is one of the biggest discrepancies between Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics’ models. Clay gives the Patriots a 73% chance to win, while the ESPN Analytics model is at only 52%. If you are high on the Patriots like Mike Clay is, they are appealing at around 2% selection. However, the Patriots still host the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers and New York Giants later in the season, so there will be plenty of chances to use New England, especially if Drake Maye and company take a step forward.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 73%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 52%
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ESPN BET line: Patriots -2.5 (-145 moneyline)
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Eliminator Challenge: 2% selected
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