The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.
Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.
Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files: Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).
I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing Joe Burrow during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as actionable.
Week 1 Regression Files is always a little tricky to write because we’re still working with last year’s data. I’ll focus this week’s column on players due for season-long touchdown regression. By next week this space will be packed with actual, real-life 2025 numbers that will inform our approach to flex options and streaming plays off the waiver wire.
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Positive Regression Candidates
Geno Smith (LV)
Geno heads: Unite!
Smith’s dismal 2024 TD rate (3.5 percent) was below his 4 percent career rate and well below his 5.2 percent touchdown rate from 2023, his first year as Seattle’s starting QB. Seattle’s green zone struggles were largely the source of Geno’s touchdown struggles. He completed just seven of his 27 inside-the-ten attempts in 2024, the lowest rate in the NFL. Only three quarterbacks were more inefficient inside the 20 yard line last season. It was bleak.
He’s now at the head of a Vegas offense that could (should) be efficient under OC Chip Kelly. It’s not as if Geno forgot how to play the position last year in Seattle. His drop back success rate ranked tenth in the league, slightly ahead of a guy named Josh Allen.
Heavy targeting of Brock Bowers — another positive regression candidate — and Jakobi Meyers against his former mates (the Patriots) in Week 1 could be the first step in Geno’s good regression. The Patriots last season allowed the NFL’s third highest completion rate over expected. Geno, meanwhile, remained one of football’s most accurate quarterbacks. It’s a nice spot for every spreadsheet warrior’s favorite signal caller. You could do worse in a 14-team or superflex league.
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
I’m including Mahomes here because in ten-team leagues, you might have a QB option you’re considering playing over the quarterback widely known as Midhomes.
With the Chiefs set to open the season against the Chargers, just know that Mahomes was 35 fantasy points below expectation last season. His 4.5 percent TD rate in 2024 was slightly below league average, in line with guys like Jameis Winston and Drake Maye.
Positive regression for Mahomes is actually two years in the making. Kansas City remains one of the pass-heaviest red zone teams in football (Mahomes was second in inside-the-ten attempts last season). It all signals that Mahomes could banish the Midhomes moniker as soon as Week 1 against the Chargers.
Jordan Mason (MIN)
The Vikings acquired Mason this offseason because, according to my spreadsheets, Aaron Jones was the worst red zone rusher in football last year.
Jones, not exactly the most physical back, turned 24 inside-the-ten rushes into a mere three touchdowns. He lost four yards on 13 inside-the-five carries in 2024. He gained just 40 yards on 72 red zone totes. Jones, in short, was miserable when the Vikes got close to paydirt.
Enter the bigger, more physical Mason, a metrics darling who last season scored three touchdowns on 19 inside-the-ten carries. It’s hardly a great rate — it’s bad, actually — but I’m writing up Mason because he’s sure to see those high-leverage attempts in what should be a more balanced Minnesota offense in 2025. I refuse to believe the team traded for Mason only to give the ball to Jones near the goal line.
In Week 1 Mason takes on a Chicago defense that posted the league’s third lowest stuff rate in 2024. I like his chances of plunging into the end zone in the season opener.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
I found out this offseason that Kincaid is a surprisingly strong target earner. It’s not something I expected from such a middling fantasy option who doesn’t seem to have much trust from his coaches as a full-time part of the Buffalo offense.
Kincaid’s 2024 targets per route run (28 percent) was the second-highest among tight ends with at least 50 routes last season. Route participation was the issue for Kincaid in 2024. Before his Week 10 injury, he ranked 17th among tight ends in pass routes, logging a route on just 65 percent of Josh Allen’s drop backs. Kincaid largely shared the route-running tight end role with longtime Allen favorite Dawson Knox.
Another plus for Kincaid: He lined up in the slot on 61 percent of his routes, the highest rate among all tight ends. His 23 percent usage on the outside was third highest among tight ends. This kind of usage is historically good for a tight end’s fantasy prospects. With a little better usage in 2025, Kincaid could be a nice surprise for fantasy folks who didn’t invest heavily at tight end.
Travis Kelce (KC)
More than anyone else in the Chiefs offense, Kelce gets an outsized bump from Rashee Rice’s absence over the first six weeks of the regular season. It was Rice who took on Kelce’s usual role in the KC offense over the first three weeks of 2024, and it turned Kelce into a desperation streaming play in 12-team formats.
With Rice out, Kelce has a real path to elite usage in one of the NFL’s pass heaviest offenses.
It’s not that Kelce’s red zone role changed all that much last season. Kelce commanded a 27 percent red zone target share in 2024, an increase from 2022 and 2023. He just didn’t do much with the opportunity, which of course could be a function of being totally and completely washed.
Still, tight ends are more reliant on touchdowns than any other position in fantasy, and a little more luck near the goal line in 2025 could make Kelce a startable weekly option in 12-team leagues. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said this summer that Kelce’s 2025 snaps should be “similar” to what they were last season, when he ran more pass routes than all but one tight end (Brock Bowers).
Kelce needs to be considered a top-five tight end play (conservatively) until further notice.
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Negative Regression Candidates
Baker Mayfield (TB)
Mayfield’s 7.4 percent touchdown rate in 2024 was outrageous by any measure, especially considering his career TD rate headed into 2024 was a tick below 5 percent. Baker ran hotter than the chicken he advertises on my TV.
There’s also his success rate: Last year Mayfield posted a sky-high 54 percent drop back success rate — higher than every quarterback but Jared Goff. Mayfield’s career success rate of 46 percent suggests he’ll see an efficient drop off in 2025 — maybe a big one.
Maybe you drafted Mayfield as your starter. That’s fine. You should be OK. Just know that Mayfield probably can’t keep up what he did in 2024, and in shallower leagues, you might stumble into a better QB option sooner rather than later.
Tucker Kraft (GB)
I get the excitement around Kraft. He’s hyper athletic, the team (and Jordan Love) seem to be bullish on him, and no Green Bay wideout is primed to dominate targets in 2025.
I’m here to throw cold water on the whole thing. Kraft last season saw a target on a meager 14.5 percent of his routes. That’s in line with tight ends like Kyle Pitts and Noah Gray. Not good. Kraft saw a target on 13 percent of his routes in 2023. He’s not a target commander.
He also scored a touchdown on six of his 15 red zone looks in 2024, along with two of his three inside-the-ten targets.
I forbid you from getting overly excited about Kraft headed into Week 1.
Jonnu Smith (PIT)
I know. It’s brave of me to put Smith on the negative regression list after he played well over his head in 2024 and was then traded to a miserable, run-first team where he might split tight end routes with Pat Freiermuth.
This is for the folks who picked up Jonnu last season and enjoyed top-end fantasy production for more than half the season. Everything about Jonnu’s 2024 in Miami screams regression: His targets per route run spiked, his route participation rate jumped, and his touchdown production bordered on the ridiculous. Seven of Smith’s nine inside-the-ten receptions went for touchdowns last season. Seven of his 14 red zone catches went for scores. Jonnu broke my spreadsheets. So it goes.
In Pittsburgh, Jonnu will see a drop in target volume, maybe by a big margin. He could also run a lot fewer routes as something of a rotational player. It’s not as if Steelers OC Arthur Smith prioritized Jonnu during their time together in Atlanta: Smith was targeted on a humble 18 percent of his pass routes that season. You can probably do better than Jonnu in Week 1.
Rashod Bateman (BAL)
I understand that Bateman’s game is inherently volatile. A wideout with a 13.7 air yards per target is going to be boom or bust. I mention Bateman here because he boomed a little more than he should have in 2024.
Only five receivers last year were further over their expected fantasy production than Bateman, who scored a touchdown on a stunning 20 percent of his 2024 receptions. That’s one in every five catches going for six. That’s a lot.
Be careful about playing Bateman in 12-team formats this season. While he’ll certainly continue functioning as Lamar Jackson’s primary downfield threat, the lack of pass volume in the Baltimore offense and the low-probability targets Bateman sees could create more Sunday frustration than Sunday glee in 2025.