Every week, this article is a labor of love for me.
I highlight the top DFS game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and routes for game flows. I try to dip into some matchup-based discussions and then run with certain narratives to give you a lean early in the week of how I could see a game play out. On Friday’s DFS & Betting Podcast, I talk through these games alongside Betz adding in DFS salaries and roster percentages.
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 1, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on EPA per play metrics for both offense and defense, and factor that for a final GPS score. I caution simply copying and pasting last year’s metrics as gospel. They are a guide but not necessarily prescriptive of what will be in 2025.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, download here.
Ah! We meet again! These two NFC South foes are familiar with each other and while the Buccaneers certainly had an incredible statistical season, they dropped both of their matchups with the Falcons last year. Both games were barn-burners totaling 66 and 57 points. I was at that epic Week 5 game on Thursday Night where Kirk Cousins somehow willed the team to a win in OT on the back of 58 pass attempts and 509(!) passing yards. It ruined any Falcons outlook for the rest of the season. Pain. The Falcons did push the envelope more than you have realized going for it on 4th down 26.7% of the time (4th highest in the NFL) despite a pass rate over expectation (-8.1) that was bottom-5. Regardless of your outlook for 2025, this game grades out quite well (4.25) considering the total (46.5). The Buccaneers were consistent gaining 5+ yard on 46.3% of their plays last year, the highest rate in the league. However, the Falcons quietly ranked 5th in that category, which was incredible for a 1st year play-caller like Zac Robinson.
The Buccaneers offense is headlined by Baker Mayfield‘s ability to spread the ball around and sneakily add some production on the ground. They ran 11-personnel 71% of the time last year so it will be interesting to see how they approach the first month of the season with Chris Godwin likely inactive, Jalen McMillan on IR, and Cade Otton also banged up. The offensive line allowed the lowest pressure rate in the NFL last year but much of that statistic is due to the type of throws Baker made. Per NextGenStats, Baker’s average time to throw (2.70 sec) was quickest in his career and the 8th-quickest in the NFL while 967 yards on passes behind the line of scrimmage this season, the MOST in the NFL and 2nd-most in any season in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Despite the offensive line being elite, Baker’s 25.3% pressure-to-sack ratio was dreadful and if Atlanta’s young pass rush can create oppportunities, they’ll have something they nevr had. Atlanta’s pass defense is a major reason why this could be another back-and-forth affair as they ranked 28th in EPA per pass attempt. I’m eye-balling Mike Evans as legitimate Week 1 leverage with the entire field likely in love with Emeka Egbuka and his cheap price tag. Keep in mind 74% of the WR fantasy points allowed by the Falcons secondary last year were to outside WRs, the highest rate in the NFL. A Baker double stack could include Bucky or Mike Evans alongside Egbuka but this team scores in bunches.
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