Inside: Seven predictions for 2025, including my Super Bowl pick. Plus: Mike Sando explains why Dallas is the league’s most underrated team.
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New season, new predictions
With just over a day until kickoff, here are my seven predictions for 2025:
1. Most disappointed: Commanders fans.
The results for the annual Hope-O-Meter rankings are in. The Broncos lead this year’s rankings, while expectations remain tempered in Chicago: “Fool me once, shame on you, fool me 27 times, that’s on me,” wrote one fan.
As for Washington, they are ninth after a 17th-place ranking in 2024’s offseason. Fair enough. They just went 12-5 and were one win shy of the Super Bowl. Jayden Daniels is special, as Troy Aikman confirmed to The Athletic, and they improved this offseason, adding stud left tackle Laremy Tunsil, receiver Deebo Samuel, edge Von Miller and first-round rookie right tackle Josh Conerly.
But can the Commanders continue to overachieve? I think not. They had the league’s easiest schedule, were 1-4 against playoff teams (their lone win was against an Eagles team without Jalen Hurts), and had a 9-4 record in one-score games. The Hail Maryland epitomized their miracle run.
This year, they will be tested with their schedule (second-most improved, based on 2024 records and 2025 expected win totals), as every opponent is either much-improved (Giants, Raiders) or a playoff team. Anything but a playoff appearance will be disappointing for the Commanders; they’ll be lucky to get that.
2. Best rookies: Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson and Ravens DE Mike Green.
Ashton Jeanty, Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter headline this year’s class, but preseason favorites don’t always win their respective awards, as Daniels and Rams DE Jared Verse proved in 2024. Jeanty is behind a below-average line that did little to improve, Hunter is playing multiple positions and Carter is alongside a deep group of pass rushers. Titans QB Cam Ward, whom BetMGM gave the second-best OROY odds, is on a team unlikely to win enough games.
Ohio State’s Henderson should become a Jahmyr Gibbs-like focal point for a Patriots team desperate for offensive weapons. A 2017 Alvin Kamara-like season is possible. As for Green, four of the past five winners were edge rushers who racked up sacks. That’s Green’s specialty: He looked dominant this preseason after leading Division I at Marshall with 17 sacks.
3. Surprise fantasy breakout: Luther Burden III.
Ben Johnson’s scheme gives players opportunities to run with the ball, and no rookie receiver is better with it than Burden, a first-round talent who fell to the Bears at 39 due to subpar quarterback play at Missouri in 2024.
“He holds a master’s in creating with the ball in his hands, because of his explosive speed and competitive toughness,” wrote Dane Brugler. An ideal fit in Chicago, Burden may start slow but could win your league in the second half of 2025.
4. Narrative-changing coach: Brian Schottenheimer.
His hire in Dallas wasn’t received well, initially. But Cowboys fans will be pleasantly surprised by the new head coach, who is ready to meet the moment. The two-year Dallas OC is already familiar with Cowboys media frenzies, inherits an offense stacked with talent and has kept the team together amid the Micah Parsons situation.
He also thrived as a playcaller for the 2018 to ’20 Seahawks — as Mike Sando has noted, Schottenheimer’s offense averaged 26.1 points per game.
PPG for play-calling OCs (min. 40 G w/team), 2000-24
Three more predictions below, including my Super Bowl lock, before Mike’s note on these Cowboys.
5. Toughest division: NFC West.
The AFC West and NFC North are popular picks, but if any division could see all four teams finish above .500, it’s the NFC West.
The Seahawks might have the league’s best defense, and won 10 games last season. The Rams improved their run defense and receiver room after falling 13 yards shy of beating the Super Bowl champion Eagles. The 49ers return the healthy starters that’d made them the Super Bowl favorite prior to 2024.
The Cardinals, 8-9 last season, are my surprise playoff team. They pair an easy schedule with an impressive draft class and free agent signings, plus an improved Marvin Harrison Jr.
6. Super Bowl: Ravens vs. Packers.
This isn’t a bold claim, since these teams sit second and sixth, respectively, in The Athletic’s Power Rankings.
In Baltimore, Lamar Jackson improved on his 2023 MVP season, and their defense added two potential stars in the draft (the aforementioned DE Green and S Malaki Starks). The league’s scariest team for most of last season, they are just behind the Eagles in BetMGM’s Super Bowl odds.
On the other side, the league’s most complete team — Green Bay ranked above average in basically every statistical category — added a superstar in Micah Parsons. He instantly vaults them into legitimate contender status, though the Packers worry me. They failed to improve their cornerback room, and Jordan Love’s penchant for turnovers (three in their playoff loss to the Eagles) could prove costly.
It’s close, but I’d take the Packers over Philadelphia, who will miss underrated defensive pieces, particularly in their secondary, and the Lions, who lost two of the league’s best run blockers and coordinators.
7. 2025 Champion: Ravens.
Jackson was the league’s best player last season, which is typically the ingredient for Super Bowl success, unless you’re Peyton Manning.
Like Jackson, Manning won two league MVP awards prior to his first Super Bowl. Unable to win the AFC due to a generational opponent (Tom Brady), Manning was 3-6 in the playoffs prior to his 2006 Super Bowl victory. Jackson sits at a similar 3-5.
What changed in 2006? Manning’s teammates stepped up. Their quarterback threw six interceptions in four playoff games, but the Colts’ defense and offensive weapons like TE Dallas Clark elevated. Jackson hasn’t always had that support, to put it nicely.
Today, Baltimore fields the NFL’s only flawless team. Their secondary struggled in 2024, but is notably improved with veteran additions CBs Jaire Alexander and Chidobe Awuzie, plus another season for 2024 first-round pick Nate Wiggins, as well as defensive contributions from those high-upside rookies. They even have a kicker!
The only team that can beat the Ravens is themselves, and I realize how bold a claim that is, with the Chiefs and Bills in the same conference. But, like Manning in ’06, Jackson’s generational talent should finally lead to the Super Bowl result he’s dreamed of. It was only a matter of time.
What do you think happens? Take our survey to make your 2025 NFL predictions. Over to Mike.
Sando’s Pick: Why not Dallas?
The Cowboys, arguably the greatest marketing success story in team-sports history, finally might be underrated.
When I asked eight NFL executives to rank the NFC teams from 1-16, the Cowboys landed 13th. This seemed low, but when I checked preseason Vegas win totals at BetMGM, the Cowboys were 13th in the NFC by this measure as well (a dozen teams topped their 7.5 projected win total).
Here’s why that might be misleading: Although the top three AFC teams have higher average win totals than their NFC counterparts, the reverse is true in the eighth through 13th slots — teams just outside the playoff picture.
As one exec put it: “I think a team from the NFC is going to make the playoffs, that’s like, ‘Where the f— did that come from?’ But it’s going to be a team that just got super lucky. Whereas in the AFC, I don’t think I got all seven right, but I bet I got at least five right.”
Why not Dallas? The Cowboys have gone 36-15 (.706) in their last three full seasons when Dak Prescott started more than half of the games.
My sense is Dallas might bounce back after two circuses of their owner’s making left town. (Mike McCarthy playing out his contract in 2024 after three successive 12-5 seasons was one of them. Parsons’ public battle with Jerry Jones was the other.) Even if those situations were handled poorly, they are no longer distractions.
There will be other distractions, for sure. Jones wouldn’t have it any other way. It’s just tougher to get much bigger than the head coach and star pass rusher.
Extra Points
🎙 Can Aaron Rodgers win? “The Athletic Football Show” previewed the Steelers’ chances in 2024. For more on my Super Bowl pick, watch their Ravens preview.
🎮 Gamer? Test your NFL knowledge with our 32 franchise-themed editions of Connections: Sports Edition. Find your team here.
▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: Week 1 NFL Power Rankings.
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