Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Let’s get the bad-news response out of the way first: Week 1 is the toughest week as far as evaluating matchups. It’s commonplace for fantasy analysis to rely heavily upon the previous season’s statistics, even though that completely ignores how quickly and dramatically this game changes, especially over a seven-month offseason.
The matchup rankings below provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For the first three weeks, these rankings are entirely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I consider that matchup, though 2024 full-season data is provided to give you another snapshot into the strength of that particular matchup.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable, a negative number means it is unfavorable. Also remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Carolina Panthers). Though he has yet to realize the lofty potential forecasted for him at the time he was selected No. 1 in the 2021 NFL draft, Lawrence has proved excellent at beating up on bad opponents. In the past three seasons, he has averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game against the position’s eight most favorable matchups (using schedule-adjusted, seasonal data), compared to 15.2 against everyone else. Lawrence begins 2025 against a Panthers defense that finished a schedule-adjusted 31st against quarterbacks last season and saw only minimal improvements to its secondary during the offseason.
Others to like: Drake Maye, New England Patriots (vs. Las Vegas Raiders); C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (at Los Angeles Rams).
Matchup to avoid: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs. Minnesota Vikings). A relatively strong finish to his rookie season (three games of 22-plus fantasy points in his final seven), coupled with the arrival of new playcaller Ben Johnson, has many managers optimistic about Williams’ outlook entering his sophomore season. His opening-week matchup, against a Vikings defense that ranked seventh against the position in 2024 presents quite the matchups test. Additionally, it takes place on “Monday Night Football,” and Williams was held below 10 fantasy points in all three of his prime-time games as a rookie. It’s best to leave him on the sidelines this week if you can.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (at Cleveland Browns). He returns as the Bengals’ unquestioned starting running back, a role from which he scored the sixth-most fantasy points from Week 9 onward in 2024 (165.0). Brown begins 2025 with a favorable matchup against the Browns, who allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in last season’s final eight weeks, an important distinction as it coincided with the absence of linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, whose neck injury will cost him all of this season as well.
Others to like: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers (at Jaguars); James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (at New Orleans Saints).
Matchup to avoid: Breece Hall, New York Jets (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers). Backup Braelon Allen’s strong preseason has cast some doubt upon Hall’s ability to make a high-level fantasy impact, particularly how Allen’s increased third-down work signals a prospective decline in Hall’s receiving usage. The last thing fantasy managers want in their Week 1 lineups is a timeshare running back, facing one of the league’s toughest overall defenses, in a game with the week’s lowest over/under (38.5).
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Atlanta Falcons). He’s likely to play a pretty significant role in his NFL debut, especially with Chris Godwin Jr. still recovering from the dislocated ankle that prematurely ended his 2024 season and Jalen McMillan sidelined with a neck injury. Egbuka received high marks for his preseason work while filling in for the two, and he’s less likely than fellow Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans to match up against Falcons No. 1 cornerback A.J. Terrell — though Evans did manage 23.2 fantasy points against Terrell and the Falcons in Week 5 last season, and therefore also gets a matchups bump.
Others to like: Jerry Jeudy, Browns (vs. Bengals); Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami Dolphins).
Matchup to avoid: DK Metcalf, Steelers (at Jets). The Jets might have lost cornerback D.J. Reed to the Detroit Lions via free agency, but with Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter II still on the roster and Brandon Stephens brought in to replace Reed, this secondary still rates as one of the game’s toughest. Metcalf is sure to see a large number of targets as Aaron Rodgers’ clear No. 1 receiver this season, but it’s unclear exactly how much Rodgers has left in the tank, not to mention that Metcalf averaged only 9.3 fantasy points against bottom-eight matchups in 2024, compared to 14.5 against everyone else.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Hunter Henry, Patriots (vs. Raiders). He was surprisingly heavily used last season, ranking sixth among tight ends in targets (96) and fifth in target share (19.2%), usage patterns that make him worth a look anytime he faces a matchup as favorable as this one. The Raiders surrendered the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends last season (1,107) and were 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed. Henry’s primary obstacle to a higher finish on the fantasy leaderboard was a lack of touchdowns (two), but bear in mind that the Raiders were one of four teams to surrender as many as nine touchdowns to the position in 2024.
Matchup to avoid: Colston Loveland, Bears (vs. Vikings). He’s in for a promising career, but in his NFL debut there’s too much uncertainty regarding his usage alongside Cole Kmet, and his matchup couldn’t be more challenging. The Vikings were one of five teams to hold the position to three or fewer touchdowns, and only three tight ends managed as many as 14 fantasy points in a game against them. Wait to see how heavily Loveland is used in Week 1 before slotting him into your lineups.