Every fantasy season, there are a few players who turn into absolute game-changers. You need the heavy hitters, of course, but it’s also the waiver pickup that’s made a week early that can be the difference between fantasy immortality and relegation to an also-ran. The challenge is knowing when improvement crosses into must-start territory.
What if you had a way to spot it before the rest of your league? Let’s let the jagged pieces meet the light, and I’ll show you what’s underneath. This season, TPRR is What It Sounds Like:
So, what is TPRR?
Now that you’ve come back from watching the entire movie, we can begin. The math for TPRR is simple: targets ÷ routes run. The output, expressed as a percentage, is a rate that shows how often a player earns looks when they are on the field. Why it matters: While nothing is completely controlled by the receiver, targets are still an earned metric. It means a QB made the choice to throw it your direction, whatever the reason. And from year to year, targets are one of the stickiest and most predictive stats to predict future performance.
For example, George Pickens ran 399 routes and earned 93 looks in 2024, which works out to 23.3% TPRR. That’s essentially one target for every four routes run. Jameson Williams, another popular pick this season, only boasts an 18.2% TPRR (81 targets/446 routes). Their ADPs are within a round of each other, with Williams slightly ahead. History would tell us, even with a team change, Pickens is poised to do more with his routes than Williams.
What TPRR Can Do
Box scores tell us who scored. TPRR tells us who is positioned to score next. Because it tracks efficiency, TPRR can provide insight into players ready to break out— even if injuries or snap counts have kept their totals modest. That’s why it’s a goldmine for finding mid-season pickups before the hype hits.
At its core, TPRR is a receiver efficiency signal. It reflects the ability to earn targets (a skill) and/or the way a scheme prioritizes them. Historically, WRs finishing in the top 24 almost always post a TPRR north of ~20%. Anyone else is typically an outlier due to TDs, which are hard to predict from year to year.
What TPRR Can’t Do
It’s not a crystal ball. QB play, target competition, and offensive scheme all change the outcome. TPRR shines a spotlight, but you still have to read the room. Plus, while past performance is a good indicator of the future, it’s hard to predict a new season based on 2024.
Using my previous example, think of all that has changed for George Pickens for 2025. He’s in a new offense in Dallas with a TPRR monster in CeeDee Lamb (27.8%) and only a handful of vacated targets. When he was competing for targets with Diontae Johnson in 2023, Pickens’ TPRR was a middling 19.3%. On the other hand, the Cowboys are projected to throw a lot more with a healthy Dak Prescott (and no defense) than the Russell Wilson-led Steelers, and Pickens now has a few years’ experience under his belt. TPRR provides an extra detail to consider, but it doesn’t override everything else.
How to Use This for 2025
Think of Targets per Route Run as the truth serum that cuts through narratives. When you see high efficiency rates paired with opportunity, that’s your signal to get your guy. I will often look to TPRR as a tiebreaker in drafts when I am looking for stability (veterans) or upside (younger players).
It’s another data point to combine with expected role (snap share, depth chart), competition (new signings/rookies, vacated targets), scheme, and ADP (is it baked in already?). For Footclan and UDK members (why wouldn’t you be one?!), this information is readily available in the research and analysis tools.
Courtesy of the ADP tool in the Ultimate Draft Kit, I’ve added the 2024 TPRR stats for WRs, listed in order of their Average Draft Position (ADP).
Players to Target in 2025
The ADP of these players is constantly in flux, but here are players I’m targeting instead of some others in the same range.
Second-Year WRs
- Historically, we see a lot of rookies with average TPRR’s make the jump above 21% in their second year, so I like taking some of these players over veterans. For the top tier, I am projecting Brian Thomas Jr. to finish ahead of AJ Brown, and I’m drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. over Tyreek Hill and Tee Higgins.
- Marvin Mims Jr. — 24% TPRR in 2024; we’re all expecting the Bo Nix leap in 2025, so why can’t Marvin Mims join the party? Mims flashed ability with limited opportunities, and Devaughn Vele‘s trade to New Orleans leaves an additional 10% of targets available; Draft him over: Keon Coleman.
Post-Hype Breakouts
Veteran Values
- Cooper Kupp — 27% TPRR in ’24; can Kupp stay healthy? Is he washed? I think we’ll find out soon, and it’s a price I’m willing to pay for a third or fourth receiver. Sure, it’s the Jaxon Smith-Njigba show in Seattle now, but Kupp’s 2024 showed he can still earn targets at an elite clip. Plus, 32% of the receiver targets are up for grabs with both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett out of the picture. Draft him over: Deebo Samuel.
Weekly TPRR Report (In-Season Plan)
This season, the TPRR report returns, with a weekly breakdown of the top players from the previous week and some analysis for the week ahead. Opportunities and red flags, and some occasional insights into other positions (RB, TE) and how they’re impacting the receiver position.
- Top 15 TPRR of the week
- Opportunities: strong TPRR but low fantasy points so far; depth chart changes
- Red flags: efficiency dips or role changes
- Season Leaders and Trends: efficiency dips or role changes
Good luck with your drafts. See you back here after Week 1 for the first 2025 TPRR report.
2024 Recap
For your reference, here’s how 2024 finished re: TPRR (min. 250 routes).