The San Diego Padres are riding a four-game losing streak heading into their series opener against the Colorado Rockies on Friday night, but they are still in a good position to earn one of the National League wild-card spots. They lost All-Star reliever Jason Adam for the rest of the season, while shortstop Xander Bogaerts is expected to be out until the playoffs. Star third baseman Manny Machado is batting .283 with 22 home runs though, and his latest blast came against Baltimore on Wednesday. Machado is +320 to go yard in the Friday MLB odds.
SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team is targeting Machado as one of their top MLB HR bets on Friday. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest bet365 bonus code to receive $300 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 wager, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 58.5 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after nailing Daulton Varsho (+340) and Manny Machado (+350) to homer on Wednesday, and Kyle Manzardo (+420) on Thursday. It has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Friday, September 5:
MLB Best Home Run Bets 9/5
For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.
Colson Montgomery, White Sox (+575, BetMGM)
Montgomery has launched 12 home runs in 28 games since the beginning of August, though he’s also striking out more than 30% of the time during that stretch. He’s clearly selling out for power, and it’s working—he has 17 HRs in just 50 career MLB games. Left-handed batters have a solid .754 OPS against Jack Flaherty this season. We set Montgomery’s line at +415 to homer, and you can get this price as well as up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first wager loses when using the latest BetMGM bonus code:
Manny Machado, Padres (+320, DraftKings)
We continue to like Machado’s matchups against left-handed pitchers, especially after hitting on him to homer against Cade Povich recently. Machado is 17-51 (.333) in his career against Kyle Freeland, though he hasn’t homered off him yet. He’s seen Freeland more than any other batter has seen an opposing pitcher in today’s slate, and we think he’s due. Machado has a .977 OPS and 12 HRs in 43 games when facing a left-handed starter. We set his line at +225 to homer. New users can also get $300 in bonus bets instantly after their first $5 wager as well as over $200 off on NFL Sunday Ticket with the latest DraftKings bonus offer:
Christian Yelich, Brewers (+600, DraftKings)
Yelich is just 1-9 in his career against Johan Oviedo, but that one hit was a home run. Oviedo has been dominant against left-handed hitters this season, though the sample size is small, and historically he’s been slightly worse against lefties. Yelich has an .885 OPS with 23 of his 27 HRs against RHPs. At +600, we think it’s worth a shot. We set Yelich’s line close to +400 to homer. Bet this prop at DraftKings and get $300 in bonus bets instantly along with $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:
Where to bet MLB props on Friday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Friday:
More MLB picks for Friday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Angelo Magliocca, who is on a 64-45 roll (+1368) on MLB picks.