Let’s skip to the big question first: Has Nathan MacKinnon overtaken Connor McDavid as the top fantasy player?
The short answer is no, because McDavid’s offensive ceiling is still higher. The long answer is maybe, and it depends on a variety of factors including health, puck luck and your fantasy league settings. In leagues that count face-off wins and shots, watching McDavid fall into the No. 2 slot will draw audible gasps, but it’s an entirely defensible move to take MacKinnon first. He offers far better volume in those categories, has a pretty strong track record of being able to stay healthy and generally plays more minutes.
Advertisement
Okay, let’s backtrack.
If there is some trepidation heading into the 2025-26 season for the Avs, it’s because their 2024-25 season started horribly. They lost four straight with 25 goals allowed to start the season, and hovered around .500 until the end of November until a flurry of moves turned their season around, but their playoff run ended with question marks about their roster construction.
The most shocking development was the decision to trade away Mikko Rantanen when contract talks stalled, and the Avs decided they needed more balance in their lineup by getting Martin Necas to replace Rantanen and Jack Drury to stabilize their bottom six. Ironically, before and after the trade, the Avs were still a top-heavy team that leaned heavily on MacKinnon and Cale Makar to do the heavy lifting.
MacKinnon ranked first in TOI/GP among forwards and Makar ranked third among defensemen. Sometimes, you wonder if those minutes will catch up to them, though both have proved to be resilient with Makar missing just seven games in the past two seasons while MacKinnon has missed only three. It’s unlikely the Avs will switch up their strategy post-Rantanen, and both Makar and MacKinnon will remain top-five fantasy options based on their talent and usage.
Advertisement
Without Rantanen, I also expect MacKinnon to raise his shot volume; he averaged nearly six shots per game in the playoffs and it would not be surprising to see him approach 400 shots this coming season. It would push him back into the 40-goal range, but not having Rantanen does make me question if he can put up 80 assists for the third straight season. For what it’s worth, THN Yearbook & Fantasy Guide projected MacKinnon to finish with 123 points, trailing only McDavid.
Regarding Makar, it’s worth noting Orr, Coffey and Potvin are the only defensemen to have scored at least 30 goals multiple times. He’s absolutely ready to join that group; his extreme goals and shot volume for his position makes him the undisputed No. 1 defenseman in fantasy.
Of the 24 playoff goals the Avs scored in the first round, only four of them were scored by their bottom six and Jonathan Drouin and Brock Nelson combined for zero goals. Make no mistake, the Avs are still an elite team because they have elite talent, but there are still a lot of flaws and they enter the 2025-26 season with a pretty suspect bottom six that will be without Logan O’Connor to start the season.
If you think that won’t impact the values of the Avs’ top players in fantasy, you’re probably right; but it’s not ideal if the injury bug bites. Given how aggressive the Avs’ front office was last season, I would not be surprised if they take a similar strategy during their Cup window, and certainly would not rule out them trading Necas if they cannot get him to sign a long-term deal as they did with Rantanen.
Advertisement
The big bright spot heading into 2025-26 is a healthy Gabriel Landeskog. He scored four points and averaged three hits per game in five playoff games. If he can return to his 30-goal, 70-point, 150-hit form, he’s an excellent mid-round option with the potential to exceed those totals. The Avs will continue to live and die with their top players until the rest of the roster can be fleshed out. Focus on players who will share the ice with MacKinnon and Makar, which includes Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin on the power play, and Artturi Lehkonen in nearly all situations.
Do not forget or overlook Mackenzie Blackwood. I’ve been a fan for a long time, and I see a goalie who has the ability to steal games but has been either hampered by injuries or poor defensive play. He’s not an elite goalie by any means, but the Avs can make (most) goalies look good, and I view Blackwood as a top-10 fantasy goalie with 30-plus wins, easy.
Prediction:
MacKinnon and Makar once again carry this team and both finish as top-five fantasy players at their position. The Avs’ excellent top-six propels them to another successful season while Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood provide well above-average goaltending, with Blackwood possibly in the run for most wins.
Advertisement
Necas reaches 80 points easily in a contract year, and both a healthy Nicushkin and Landeskog help replace some of Rantanen’s output, but as a whole the Avs remain a top-heavy team without any discernible improvement or regression in Year 1 of the post-Rantanen era. Veteran Brent Burns sees the end of his run as a fantasy asset with declining numbers playing behind Makar.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.