Parker’s early lean: Bolts strike again.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) rushes.
This AFC West showdown already carries early significance with the 2-0 Los Angeles Chargers hosting the 1-1 Denver Broncos at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, September 21.
My early NFL picks and Broncos vs. Chargers predictions are calling for Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert to play a leading role in improving the Bolts to a 3-0 start.
Broncos vs Chargers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Broncos vs Chargers spread pick: Chargers -2.5
-118 at FanDuel
There are two primary reasons I’m backing the Los Angeles Chargers to cover the -2.5 spread against the Denver Broncos in Week 3.
First, Los Angeles has played the seventh-hardest schedule through two weeks, per PFF, while Denver has played the fifth easiest. The Broncos didn’t pull away from the Tennessee Titans until late in their Week 1 victory, and then they lost 29-28 to the Indianapolis Colts last week.
Meanwhile, the Chargers took down the reigning AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs, and then they kept the Las Vegas Raiders out of the end zone and to just 218 yards on offense during a 20-9 victory on Monday Night Football in Week 2.
The gap in overall PFF grade and DVOA ranks are telling, too. Los Angeles is fourth and third, and Denver is 22nd and 15th.
The second reason I’m bullish on Los Angeles is because of quarterback Justin Herbert’s career trajectory under second-year head coach Jim Harbaugh.Â
Herbert hasn’t had a turnover-worthy play through two games and ranks second in air yards, third in success rate, and eighth in aDot.
I want the side that the better quarterback is on with this spread under the key number of three.
Early Broncos vs Chargers total pick: Under 45.5
-110 at FanDuel
The Broncos and Chargers send out two of the best stop units in football, and as noted, Los Angeles just held the Raiders out of the end zone entirely in Week 2.
Denver has allowed the third-lowest EPA per play while ranking 11th in defensive DVOA and 12th in PFF defense grade through two weeks, while Los Angeles checks in with respective ranks of fifth, fourth and second.
I’m not sure where the points are going to come from, and these two teams closed with totals of 37 and 41.5 in their two 2024 meetings, so this is a notable climb.
Broncos vs Chargers odds
- Broncos vs. Chargers spread: Chargers -2.5
- Broncos vs. Chargers moneyline: Broncos +135, Chargers -150
- Broncos vs. Chargers Over/Under: 43.5
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