If this goes badly, it’ll be easy to say the Milwaukee Bucks should have started over. Instead of paying Damian Lillard $22.5 million per season for the next five years to not play for them, they could have paid him $54.1 million to rehabilitate from his torn Achilles in 2025-26, then let his contract expire in 2027 (or waited to offer him a normal buyout in the final season of his deal). Instead of replacing Brook Lopez with Myles Turner and signing/re-signing a bunch of veterans in hopes of fielding a competitive enough team that Giannis Antetokounmpo would not request a trade, they could have told Antetokounmpo that they’d spare him the trouble: You don’t have to ask out. We know a trade is what’s best for you and what’s best for us. Your legacy is secure.
That, however, would have required the Bucks to accept that the Giannis era was over. It would have required them to let go of the hope that the best player in franchise history would spend his entire career in Milwaukee. Evidently, they were not ready to do that, so here they are, with a roster that is shaped a lot like last year’s, aside from the fact that Lillard isn’t on it. “Maximizing Giannis’ prime, our opportunities to win, I feel like that’s our responsibility always,” general manager Jon Horst told The Athletic in July. And for now at least, it’s Antetokounmpo’s responsibility to try to maximize this supporting cast. If everything comes together, maybe all that he and the organization had to do to try to salvage the situation will be seen as admirable. This is an extremely heavy lift, though, even for Antetokounmpo.
The State of Play
Last year: The Bucks winning the NBA Cup will always be a happy memory, but it already felt like a distant one at the end of the season. They traded Khris Middleton and little-used rookie AJ Johnson for Kyle Kuzma. They also traded 2022 first-round pick MarJon Beauchamp for Kevin Porter Jr. and traded 2024 free-agent signing Delon Wright for Jericho Sims. Bobby Portis got suspended for 25 games for violating the anti-drug policy. Lillard was sidelined because of deep vein thrombosis in his calf, and he tore his Achilles when he attempted to come back in the playoffs. After winning 48 games and finishing fifth in the East, Milwaukee lost its first-round series against Indiana in five games.Â
The offseason: Milwaukee waived Lillard, stretching the $113 million it owed him over the next five seasons and opening up cap space to sign Turner away from the Pacers. Lopez signed with the Clippers and the Bucks gave up two second-round picks to dump Pat Connaughton to Phoenix. But the following familiar faces will be back on new deals: Bobby Portis (four years, $43.6 million), Gary Trent Jr. (two years, $7.6 million, player option), Porter (two years, $10.5 million, signed with the room midlevel), Ryan Rollins (three years, $12 million, player option), Taurean Prince (two years, $7.1 million, player option), Sims (2 years, $5.3 million, player option), Thanasis Antetokounmpo (one year, $2.9 million). The front office also added Gary Harris (two years, $7.5 million, player option), Cole Anthony (one year, $2.3 million) and Amir Coffey (one year, $2.9 million).
Las Vegas over/under: 42.5 wins, via BetMGM Sportsbook
The Conversation
Bucks believer: Can everybody give Jon Horst and the entire Bucks organization some credit, please? Months later, I still can’t believe they actually stretched Lillard’s contract. It was the only move that made sense after Lillard tore his Achilles, but I just wasn’t sure that any owner would be willing to cut a check that big for that long to a player no longer on the roster. When they did it, the negative reaction was so predictable that I probably shouldn’t have even been disappointed. Yes, we all know that Lillard’s dead money will make Horst’s job more difficult in 2027-28, 2028-29 and 2029-30. You know what else would make his job more difficult? Not having Antetokounmpo on the team! It is objectively impressive that the Bucks replaced Lopez with a better player (who happens to be eight years younger!) and signed a slew of solid role players to bargain contracts. It is a mistake to underestimate this team, and it is a mistake to underestimate Point Giannis.
Bucks skeptic: I’ll give Horst credit for creativity — I sure didn’t see Lillard and Turner moves coming — and for some nice signings on the margins. I’m not sure why anyone would be celebrating what his front office has done since the 2021 championship, though. The Giannis-Dame partnership simply did not work like the Bucks thought it would, in large part because there weren’t enough legitimate two-way players around them. They’ve whiffed on draft picks and whiffed on signings and traded a franchise icon for Kuzma. I think the waive-and-stretch thing was desperate and delusional, but even if it somehow turns out well, you’re excited about them merely rescuing themselves from a catastrophe of their own making.
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Bucks believer: No, I’m excited about them finding a way to put together a coherent roster despite absolutely awful luck. I’m excited that, after the Lillard injury, they didn’t just give up. I’m excited that I don’t have to watch Giannis continue to improve as a midrange shooter and passer while wearing a different team’s uniform. And I’d really love to know what brilliant moves you would have made in Horst’s shoes over the last few years. The Bucks’ relative struggles since 2021 are primarily the result of poorly timed injuries, but they’ve also dealt with the same boring stuff that other championship teams have faced. To compete at the highest level, you usually need veterans and you usually need to give up draft picks in win-now trades. Eventually, those vets decline, and it’s hard to make up for that without draft capital. I’m not saying you must feel sorry for Horst, but stop acting like he’s failed by presiding over only one title.
Bucks skeptic: I see that you’re going to completely let the Bucks off the hook on the big-picture stuff, so let’s go granular: On the court, what are they going to be good at this season? Last year, they were terrible in the non-Giannis minutes with Lillard on the team. Aside from Giannis, who is going to create offense? Do you think Porter Jr. is a viable rotation player in the playoffs? Does it matter to you that Kuzma was a disaster last season? Do you think Turner is still the elite rim protector that he was a few years ago?
Bucks believer: This isn’t that complicated, man. They’re going to be good at all the same stuff they’ve been good at for the last seven years. They’ll space the floor well, take care of the ball, get to the free-throw line, defend without fouling and clean the defensive glass. Opposing teams will have to choose between sending extra bodies at Giannis and giving up open 3s. Even without Lillard, I won’t be surprised if they’re once again the most accurate 3-point-shooting team in the NBA. Between Porter, Anthony and Rollins, they have enough secondary playmaking, and they’ll post up Bobby Portis against opposing second units, too. Turner is more mobile than Lopez at this point, and I bet he’ll look like a better rim protector in this defensive system, next to Giannis.
Bucks skeptic: I sort of admire your ability to talk yourself into this team. Personally, I have a hard time getting past how slow, shallow and stodgy they looked against the Pacers a few months ago. I like Coffey and Anthony just fine, but they aren’t fixing that. Neither is putting Turner in Lopez’s place. I’m not convinced this team will be above average on either end of the court, and I can’t imagine how ugly it’ll be if/when Antetokounmpo has to sit out for a few games. The offseason felt like an exercise in delaying the inevitable.