Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know who to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The matchup rankings provide a schedule independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For the first three weeks, these rankings are entirely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I consider that matchup, though 2024 full-season data is provided to give you another snapshot into the strength of that particular matchup.
Adjusted fantasy points allowed (Adj. FPA) reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable. A negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs. Dallas Cowboys). Considering the challenges his first two matchups presented — a prime-time game against the Minnesota Vikings and a much-ballyhooed meeting with the Detroit Lions — Williams’ 41.18 fantasy points were plenty good start. Under Ben Johnson’s tutelage, Williams has reversed his 2024 trend of slow starts to games, going from one of the worst to the league’s best first-quarter quarterback (going by Total QBR), and he has shown good mobility with 14.5 of those points on rushing plays. It’s a nice foundation as Williams draws one of his most favorable matchups in Week 3. The opposing Cowboys bring little in the way of pass rush (20th-ranked pass rush win rate) and have struggled mightily to defend the deep ball (315 yards and three touchdowns on throws at least 20 yards downfield, both NFL worsts).
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Matchup to avoid: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Denver Broncos). The Chargers have made him a bigger part of their game plan, and for the first time in his career, he has passed for multiple touchdowns without an interception while also rushing for at least 30 yards in back-to-back games. Herbert’s fantasy stock is on the rise, but this is a week to fade him. The Broncos, despite their Week 2 stinker in Indianapolis, have still held opposing quarterbacks to the third-lowest completion percentage (56.5%), third-worst Total QBR (41.7) and seventh-worst rate of passing yards per dropback (5.2). They entered 2025 regarded one of the toughest defenses against the pass, and one bad week against Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts shouldn’t dramatically change that.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Javonte Williams, Cowboys (at Bears). He’s off to a stunning start, with 45.4 fantasy points (third among RBs) as well as 31 rushing yards over expected, per Next Gen Stats, while playing 75% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps. Williams did so in part by capitalizing upon an extremely favorable Week 2 matchup against the New York Giants, and this week is similarly soft against a Bears defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position (57.2). The Bears surrendered 52 points and 511 total yards to the Lions in Week 2, and they might play Week 3 without LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring) and CBs Jaylon Johnson (groin) and Kyler Gordon (hamstring).
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Matchup to avoid: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams (at Philadelphia Eagles). Though he’s still seeing the heavy, fantasy-friendly workloads he did during the past two seasons — his 75% snap rate and 17.5 carries per game are within range of his 85% (healthy games only) and 19.4 marks from 2023-24 — Williams appears to have less explosiveness through two games. Per Next Gen Stats, his average speed and 15 mph run rates are both down (11.5 mph and 11.4%). That’s a concern with a matchup against the Eagles up next after the defending champions held Chiefs running backs to 55 yards on 19 carries in Week 2.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers (at New England Patriots). CB Christian Gonzalez‘s hamstring injury has been particularly problematic for the Patriots’ defense, which through two weeks has already seen four wide receivers score 13 or more fantasy points. Alex Austin and Marcus Jones have struggled in Gonzalez’s absence, surrendering 35.3 points on 17 targets as the nearest defender. Metcalf, who hasn’t yet seen the lofty target share initially expected working with Aaron Rodgers, should find plenty of opportunities this week. Even if Gonzalez is healthy enough to return, it’s probable he will not be in peak form.
Others to like:
Matchup to avoid: Chris Olave, Saints (at Seahawks). He’s certainly seeing the targets he needs to succeed — his 31% share is 10th best in the league — but he has one of the shakier quarterbacks throwing him the football in Spencer Rattler, and Olave has had to battle Juwan Johnson and Devaughn Vele for looks in red zone situations (two targets and no scores to the others’ five targets and two scores). The Seahawks, meanwhile, have been one of the stingiest defenses against wide receivers thus far, in large part because of the performance of CB Josh Jobe, who also finished the 2024 season on a high note. In his past six games, Jobe has surrendered only 20.8 fantasy points on 23 targets as the nearest defender, per Next Gen Stats.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina Panthers). We would understand if you’re hesitant to trust him after three consecutive disappointing campaigns entering this one, but Pitts has seen more looks through two games, as evidenced by his career-best 21% target share. That meshes well with this supremely favorable matchup, as the Panthers were the fourth-worst schedule-adjusted defense against the position last season, and they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends through two weeks this season.
Matchup to avoid: Mark Andrews, Ravens (vs. Lions). Slow starts are nothing new to him, as he has averaged 10.5 fantasy points in September in his career, compared to 12.9 the rest of the season. Four of his six worst single-game point totals have occurred in September of either this or last season. Worse, Andrews has managed only 2.9 points on four targets total this season despite the absence of fellow pass-catching tight end Isaiah Likely (foot). The Lions, unfortunately, provide Andrews little respite from his slump, having limited opposing tight ends to the fewest fantasy points per game (8.9) and third-worst catch rate (64.9%) since the beginning of last season.